This thread is for all comments, discussion and analysis of temperatures in the UK during February, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own back yard.

January was a month of two halves with cooler weather finally arriving from mid month, but not as cold as was perhaps expected. Will the cooler conditions continue into February and possibly turn even colder. Or will we see an early start to Spring? With the models in a great deal of flux I think February could be another very difficult month to predict.

For those taking part in the competition all CET predictions for February should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Do not post them directly into the thread.

The deadline for predictions this month is 2359 on Saturday evening (2 February). 

Now on to some data for February:

Historic CET summary for February

1971-2000 4.2C (30 years)

1981-2010 4.4C (30 years)

1999-2018 4.8C (last 20 years)

Last year was a fairly cold February with 2.9C. In 2017 it was very mild with 6.1C. We have had a very mixed bag of February's in recent years with several over 6C but also several around 3C.

Here is a chart of the February CET for all years since 1961:

Direct link to larger version of the chart

Current model output (at 12z 29 Jan)

GFS (12z) - the ENS are a right mess from 5 Feb onwards. Literally anything is possible. Impossible to forecast.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=

GEM (12z) - more of a signal for warmer weather from the GEM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gem&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=

Multi Op - fairly good agreement from all the operational runs of a warmer trend in the longer run but plenty of fluctuations before then

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=multi&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=OP&bw=

The ECM ENS T2m temperatures for De Bilt show something of a warming trend but still a colder cluster in evidence

http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png

Met Office contingency planners outlook 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-fma-v1.pdf

Slightly higher than average probability of colder than average conditions

Temperature analogues

On the face of it, the best match since 1950 for the December and January temperatures this year is probably 1971 looking at the overall monthly mean. This saw average temperatures in both February and March. But January 1971 started very cold and relatively mild later in the month apart from the final few days. So not a great match for 2019 really.

Other years that saw a very warm December with a colder January were 1953, 1977 and 1985. I thought these would all be good analogues but we have not had cold enough conditions in late January to match these years. All of these three years had a cold February. But I don't think they are in fact that great as analogues given January 2018 is now likely to finish close to or slightly above 4C.

Looking further back 1913 looks a potentially decent match. That saw a very mild February.

Generally insufficient data similar to winter 2018/19 to really come up with any good analogues this month.

First look at February temperature tracker

After a cold start temperatures maybe returning close to average in the second week. But overall still quite a bit below average by the 12th.

This is going to be a difficult month to guess, uncertainty in the models in second week Feb, and second half of month could be anything depending on unknown wind direction

Looking like I went too low in January, so hopefully my crystal ball is clearer this time

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This is going to be a difficult month to guess, uncertainty in the models in second week Feb, and second half of month could be anything depending on unknown wind direction

Looking like I went too low in January, so hopefully my crystal ball is clearer this time

  No idea here either and I know the models are not being at all helpful but even if they were, I wouldn’t understand them and my gut is just rumbling!  So I’ve plucked a figure out of thin air!  

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  No idea here either and I know the models are not being at all helpful but even if they were, I wouldn’t understand them and my gut is just rumbling!  So I’ve plucked a figure out of thin air!  

I'll probably be following suit Caz, as I haven't a scooby for this month, it's looking very unpredictable.

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My prediction for this month is now in, and I think that this will be a fairly average month because I think that it will be colder than what January was, although I don't think that it will be as cold as what a lot of people are hoping for and perhaps, expecting due to the fact that the most recent milder spells which we have had, have tended to come virtually from nowhere at very short notice on the short term model output.

As usual, I may be right or I may be wrong with my prediction, but I'm sure that this will be fun competition to be part of anyway regardless of how it all pans out.

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Met Office Hadley        -0.3c     Anomaly      -4.5c.   Provisional to 1st.

Metcheck                     0.60c.    Anomaly       -3.60c

Netweather                  1.29c     Anomaly       -2.92c

Mount Sorrel                0.7c       Anomaly       -3.85c

Forest Town Mansfield   0.3c      Anomaly        -4.0c

Peasedown St John       1.6c      Anomaly        -2.65c

 

Mean Of My 10 Watched Stations Using 6 Year Average    1.37c.    Anomaly    -3.18c.  

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 A minus figure!  Not surprising really but I wonder how far up it will go in the coming week?  

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Almost forgot this! Sending PM momentarily. Confidence is exceptionally low, due to a major conflict between models and theoretical expectations for the mid-term, and a late Feb that could perform all sorts of wild acts as the SSW continues its periodic lagged impacts. Remember Mar 2013 - that sort of thing could happen about half a month sooner, but the blocking could just as well end up positioned such as to bring a balmy run of weather instead!

In fact this might be the least clear month I can ever recall, outlook-wise. Had quite a few of those in the past couple of years - climate change wreaking havoc! 

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Met Office Hadley          0.4c.      Anomaly      -3.9c. Provisional to 2nd.

Metcheck                       0.49c      Anomaly      -3.71c

Netweather                    1.12c      Anomaly      -3.09c     

Cheadle Hulme               0.3c        Anomaly      -4.71c

Linford                          -0.1c       Anomaly       -4.6c

Mount  Sorrel                -0.4c       Anomaly       -3.81c

Forest Town Mansfield    -0.1c       Anomaly       -4.2c

Peasedown St John       1.7c         Anomaly        -2.55c.

 

Mean of My 10 watched stations    3.6c   Anomaly    -095c.  

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Met Office Hadley          0.4c.      Anomaly      -3.9c. Provisional to 2nd.

Metcheck                       0.49c      Anomaly      -3.71c

Netweather                    1.12c      Anomaly      -3.09c     

Cheadle Hulme               0.3c        Anomaly      -4.71c

Linford                          -0.1c       Anomaly       -4.6c

Mount  Sorrel                -0.4c       Anomaly       -3.81c

Forest Town Mansfield    -0.1c       Anomaly       -4.2c

Peasedown St John       1.7c         Anomaly        -2.55c.

 

Mean of My 10 watched stations    3.6c   Anomaly    -095c.  

I didn't expect that negative CET to be around for long, and here is the evidence of that. Given the latest model output as well, I don't even expect that current colder than average anomaly to be around for long either.

 

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I didn't expect that negative CET to be around for long, and here is the evidence of that. Given the latest model output as well, I don't even expect that current colder than average anomaly to be around for long either.

 

I thought it might still be negative today given the low temps recorded overnight. But I agree it’s looking like we can expect a fair rise over the next few days at least John!  

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I thought it might still be negative today given the low temps recorded overnight. But I agree it’s looking like we can expect a fair rise over the next few days at least John!  

Yep!! I have a feeling that this is probably it now for our winter going by the latest model output and because of that, I have a feeling that I have guessed too low this time as far as this month's competition is concerned.

 

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Yep!! I have a feeling that this is probably it now for our winter going by the latest model output and because of that, I have a feeling that I have guessed too low this time as far as this month's competition is concerned.

 

Possibly John, but I have a feeling we might get snow around the 18th, when we’re due to fly off to the sun!  That generally happens!  Then, not only does our flight get delayed, I miss the snow as well!  Sod’s Law!

On March 1st last year, we sat on the apron at Birmingham airport for four hours, looking out of the plane window at the snow!  Most other UK airports had closed and flights were being diverted to land at Birmingham, so all take offs were delayed.  It was dark by the time we took off, so I didn’t even get to see the snowy landscape below!  

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Met Office Hadley         0.6c.     Anomaly     -3.7c

Metcheck                     1.64c    Anomaly     -2.56c

Netweather                  1.25c    Anomaly     -2.96c

Linford                         2.6c     Anomaly      -2.1c

Forest Town Mansfield   2.0c     Anomaly      -2.3c

Peasedown St John       2.3c     Anomaly      -1.95c.

Mean of my 10 stations 2.49c   Anomaly      -3.32c.  

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Met Office Hadley      1.5c     Anomaly     -2.8c. Provisional to 4th.

Metcheck                   2.16c   Anomaly     -2.84c

Netweather                2.46c   Anomaly     -1.75c

Linford                      3.9c     Anomaly     -0.8c

Hexam                      0.4c     Anomaly     -3.81c

Forest Town Mansfield 2.4c     Anomaly      -0.38c

Peasedown St John    3.9c     Anomaly      -0.35c.

Mean of my 10 stations 3.01c     Anomaly   -1.54c.           

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Met Office Hadley         2.0c.     Anomaly     -2.4c. Provisional to 5th.

Metcheck                      2.98c    Anomaly     -1.222c

Netweather                   3.0c      Anomaly     -1.21c

Forest Town Mansfield    3.1c      Anomaly     1.1c

Peasedown St John        4.9c      Anomaly     0.65c

Treviskey Redruth          5.3c     Anomaly      -0.93c.

Mean of my 10 stations  3.93c.  Anomaly      -0.62c.     

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Met Office Hadley        2.7c       Anomaly      -1.8c. Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck                     3.42c.    Anomaly      -0.73c

Netweather                  3.73c     Anomaly      -0.48c

Darwen                        3.8c      Anomaly      -1.08c

Linford                         5.2c      Anomaly      0.3c

Peasedown St John       5.7c      Anomaly      1.45c

Treviskey Redruth         6.0c      Anomaly       -0.63c

 

Mean of My 10 watched Stations.    4.36c. Anomaly  -0.19c.        

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Met Office Hadley         3.2c.      Anomaly        -1.29c. Provisional to 7th.

Metcheck                      3.91c     Anomaly       -0.29c

Netweather                   4.14c     Anomaly       -0.07c

Canvey Island               5.6c       Anomaly       0.2c

Clevedon Weather         5.8c.      Anomaly       -0.13c

Forest Town Mansfield    4.1c      Anomaly       -0.3c

Peasedown St John        6.0c      Anomaly       1.75c.

Mean of my 10 stations   4.85c. Anomaly  0.3c.  

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Creeping up steadily!  

I’m hoping it doesn’t go mad though because I’ve guessed 4c for February!  

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Taking recent model guidance and considering an expected MJO P7-P8 response, a final figure in the low 4s is currently the favourite - but this is subject to change as the signals come through in the modelling. 

GFS 12z today offers a fascinating case of one of the mildest possible solutions during higher-res (out to D10) followed by one of the coldest in lower-res, though not as much so as it arguably should have been (it overlooks convective snow contributions and persistent ground ice formation, so the overnight minimums end up being 1-3*C too high). Takes my rough CET estimate up to the dizzy heights of 5.1*C to 18th, only to send it tumbling down to 4.1*C to 24th.

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