What's caught pretty much all major long-range forecasting efforts out big-time this month is a combination of the failure of true El Nino forcing to establish itself despite traditional measures suggesting it should have, and the reversal from the SSW proving unable to propagate down to the troposphere despite having been so strong and prolonged.

The MJO has just crossed phase 7 at high amplitude with lagged response dominating the weather patterns of the next week of so.

Comparing the El Nino variant of MJO P7 composite with the neutral variant demonstrates with startling clarify just how big an impact this is having on the temperature regime across the UK; it's the difference between frigid northerlies or north-easterlies and balmy southerlies.

The MJO's now moving on through P8 at high amplitude, and still the El Nino v. Neutral differences have huge implications for the UK weather;

That on the left is pretty much the coldest blocking pattern possible for the UK, which requires El Nino conditions, while on the right we see what tends to occur with neutral conditions - deep troughs slow-moving west of the UK with us being subjected a very mild but unsettled regime.

Even under neutral conditions, if the SSW had propagated right down, we'd likely have managed a useful -NAO pattern for a few weeks thanks to a move negative AO allowing the focus of HLB to be more toward due north of the UK. There was a lot as of late Jan indicating that the SSW would pull through but it seems there was an underestimation of the power of a westerly QBO at 30 mb to derail that process.

With the SSW cast aside, we're left looking to tropical forcing as the dominant driver of our weather patterns.

Currently, the atmosphere is making its biggest effort so far this winter to take on the El Nino conditions as a very strong westerly wind burst takes place across the dateline - the best position for weakening the subtropical ridges (such as the Azores High) and opening the door to HLB development NW of the UK. This shift looks to occur in time to potentially bring about the Nino variant of MJO P8 response.

...yet the models aren't showing much appetite for the HLB aspect to this response. They hammer the Azores High down, yet heights remain stubbornly on the low side across Greenland, and the high across Europe has nowhere to go. You can really see it attempting to shift NW on the ECM 00z for example, but to little avail.

This is puzzling, as although the SSW hasn't come through for us, the lower-stratosphere is only weakly positive for zonal wind anomalies, so there's not much there to resist blocking development NW of the UK. 

It seems something else is being predicted by the modelling that counteracts the effects of even such a strong and well-positioned WWB. Be that rightly or wrongly so, remains to be seen! I have a nasty feeling early March isn't going to build on the springlike foundations set by mid-Feb.

Speaking of which, the concerning signals for March are partly discussed in this latest blog post of mine that examines the most likely ground conditions ('going') at the Cheltenham Festival, if anyone fancies a read .

 Oh wow, SC!  I wish I could get my head around all that but I think I’ll leave it to those more able!  There’s no wonder the models have been all over the place!  It just goes to show, as I’ve been saying on other threads, that there are so many variables that influence our weather and we can’t rely on just a few to fall right to get our desired weather.  

I know the LRF’s have come under fire from some this winter, although I personally don’t take them at face value, but getting it wrong should help them look elsewhere for other influences and perhaps adjust the weighting for certain variables.  It’s trial and error, although I still believe our temperate maritime climate means our weather will always be subject to late changes.  

Met Office Hadley         4.9c.     Anomaly     1.0c. Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                      4.88c    Anomaly      0.68c

Netweather                   5.4c      Anomaly      1.21c

Hexham                        3.9c      Anomaly      -0.31c

Forest  Town Mansfield    5.1c      Anomaly      0.8c

Peasedown St John         7.1c      Anomaly     2.85c

Treviskey  Redruth          6.8c.     Anomaly     0.17c.

Mean of my 10 stations   5.55c. Anomaly  1.0c.   

Potentially some extraordinary temperatures for the rest of this month. Very warm conditions continuing to the end of the month. But of course things can still change.

Currently my tracker suggests a final CET of 7.08C.

Now if we take the period from 6 - 28 February the CET is predicted to be 8.15C

For the period 4-28 Feb the CET is predicted to be 7.86C

The CET record for February is 7.9C

So had it not been for the very cold first three days of this month, we could well have been on course to break the all time CET record for February.

For the second half of February the CET is predicted to be 9.35C which is remarkable - although not perhaps so surprising after the 9.7C we recorded in December 2015. 

The last time we saw a 7C February was in 2002. The warmest February of recent times was 1998 with 7.3C. The same figure was recorded in 1990. I don't think we will beat that this year but nevertheless a CET above 7C is a real possibility.

One other point worth noting is that every February above 7C in recent times has been followed by a very warm March as well. 

           Feb CET   Mar CET

2002    7.0C        8.2C
1998    7.3C        7.9C
1990    7.3C        8.3C
1961    6.9C        8.2C
1945    7.1C        7.9C

In fact years with a Feb CET above 6C have tended to be followed by a very warm March. Only exception was 1995. So very much odds on a warm March this year as well.

Truly remarkable. 

Considering the background long range signals and met office forecasts look where we are going to potentially end up ! 

This winter has taught many of us a lesson into model frailty post 7 days.

Interesting stuff GW.

Looking at the CETs for March since 1989 (so 30 years' worth), 19 out of 30 years had a March CET at least a degree higher than the 5.7 mean used so there was a greater than even chance (about 63%) that the warm Februaries would be followed by warm Marches, especially since 15 of the same 30 Februaries had a CET at least a degree warmer than average. 

The issue lies in the fact that the 1961-90 mean is still used for the CET (5.7) and for March since 1989, it's a full degree higher than that (est. 6.7 or 6.8- someone could work it out) which is an amazing difference, even by modern warming standards, over such a relatively short period.

Met Office Hadley          5.1c.       Anomaly       1.2c. Provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                      5.14c       Anomaly       0.94c

Netweather                   5.51c       Anomaly       1.32c

Canvey Island               6.1c         Anomaly       0.7c

Cheadle Hulme              5.7c         Anomaly       0.69c

Clevedon Weather          6.9c         Anomaly       0.97c

Darwen                         5.1c         Anomaly       0.22c

Hexham                         4.7c        Anomaly       0.49c

Linford Bordon                5.9c        Anomaly       1.2c

Mount Sorrel                   5.2c        Anomaly       0.65c

Forest Town Mansfield      5.6c        Anomaly       1.3c

Peasedown St John         7.2c        Anomaly      2.95c

Treviskey Redruth          7.3c         Anomaly      0.67c

Mean Of My 10 Watched Stations  5.97c. Anomaly 1.42c.                                          

No, I am not changing it!  Decision made!  

Because of that, I will be surprised if anyone gets close this time with their submitted guess in terms of where it all ends up and because of that, I wouldn't be surprised if it is simply the person who submitted the highest guess for this month who then ends up winning this time.

In that regard as well, the people who I feel sorry for here are those people such as Gavin P. (whose short-term, monthly and seasonal forecasts, I always rate very highly) who stated in their own official winter forecasts that this would probably end up being the coldest part of this whole winter because it appears as though it is the exact opposite of that which is actually happening.

Thanks GW! 

Incredible to think that a 7.0 CET month could be on the cards given how cold the first couple of days were! 

My goodness. I've really stuffed my CET scores if this turns out. Means I'll have gone 2.5 TOO low.

What with December just short of 7.0C and a February that may end up as 7.0C - Means close to an all time mild winter record.

There have been 13 winters since 1659 with a CET above 6C (six of them since 1989).

This year the CET would finish at 5.98C if we get a 7.1C February. So 14th warmest on record.

The average January scuppered any chance of a record this year. But given all the talk of a cold winter this year it just goes to show that the weather is very difficult to predict.

Here is how the CET panned out for each half monthly period (comparison to 1981-2010 mean)

1-16 Dec      6.57C (+1.60C)
17-31 Dec    7.24C (+2.97C)
1-16 Jan      5.29C (+0.90C)
17-31 Jan    2.53C (-1.96C)
1-14 Feb      4.81C (+0.32C) prov.
15-28 Feb    9.35C (+5.07C) est.

The potential anomaly for the second half of February is extraordinary. But very similar to December 2015 which was +5.1C, although that was of course sustained for a whole month.

Met Office Hadley        5.3c      Anomaly     1.5c. Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                     5.39c     Anomaly     1.1`9c

Netweather                  5.79c     Anomaly     1.6c

Clevedon Weather         7.1c      Anomaly      1.17c

Forest Town Mansfield    5.4c     Anomaly      1.6c

Peasedown St John        7.5c     Anomaly     3.25c

Treviskey Redruth          7.5c     Anomaly     0.87c.

Mean Of My 10 Watched Stations  6.17c. Anomaly   1.62c

Looking good for the rest of this month. 

Enjoy the chase for a record February.  I won’t be here to enjoy it but at least our flight won’t be delayed due to snow, unlike last year when we flew on 1st March.  Knowing my luck it’ll be freezing when we return on 5th March. 

So, in a record that goes back 360 years we have the prospect of half of the warmest winters being in the last 30.

JMA global for Jan has us second warmest to the stonking 'Super Nino' peak so we are starting off as a warm global year?

With so much heat over the southern hemisphere's summer we might just see that trend continue as the sun travels north for our summer?

Again if we do see this propensity for H.P. to be a near constant factor in the UK weather continue then a Hot summer must be on the cards?

If I remember correctly, 1975 was a good summer, warm and very dry, and it was followed by the great summer of ‘76. Could last year have been a pre-cursor to a record breaker this year?  

It's just this near constant H.P.'s that get me?

I might have been blinded by our washout years and so expect depression after depression passing over us ( with less ,or more, rain?) but we have seen a slow change to a more H.P. dominated synoptic since 2016 (IMBY) ?

The 'washout years' still put in some reasonable monthly temps even through the deep banks of cloud so what would a full on repeat of the 76' mega block enable temps to do?

It's starting to look like my guess is far too low for this month. Oh well!

My thoughts too. If it does come off this summer could be like the uk has never experienced before.

It’ll probably be wet and miserable, like most summers. Just to rile us all.

But if we repeated the pattern of this last 2 weeks of February in late July, with dry soils, we would almost certainly be touching or beating the 2003 record. It’s just about a perfect Western Europe heatwave set up.

Met Office Hadley         5.6c.     Anomaly     1.9c. Provisional to 17th.

Metcheck                      5.58c    Anomaly      1.38c

Netweather                   6.02c    Anomaly      1.83c

Clevedon Weather         7.3c      Anomaly      1.37c

Peasedown St John       7.7c      Anomaly       3.45c

Treviskey Redruth         7.6c.     Anomaly       0.97c.

Mean of My 10 Stations 6.37c.  Anomaly  1.82c. 

It's starting to look like everybody's guesses are far too low!