All good fun indeed!  I’ve gone for 4c. 

I've gone for just a fraction below 5C. If I could make my prediction again I'd go for half a degree higher, perhaps even a bit more than that. But overall I'm reasonably happy with this. It would only take the upcoming very mild spell to not be quite as mild as expected, folowed by a reasonably cold end to the month (still far too far away to know with any confidence) then my prediction might still be pretty close.

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My 5.2c looks 'safer' compared to the surprising number of competitors that have gone lower this month.

My technique is to think of a number and then add 1c. ...simples !

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Col, Steve, it certainly looks like you’ll both be closer than me.   

This mild spell will add a few digits, especially if nights are as mild as last night!  It may even exceed all expectations and get higher than anyone predicted.  A late cold spell would have to produce ice days to bring it down to my level and I can’t see that happening!  

My technique is to pluck a number out of thin air.  It obviously doesn’t work!  

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I think, my mistake here was in forgetting that a colder than average winter month is usually always asking for too much these days in this modern era of the Great British winter (not that there's usually ever anything all that "Great" about our winters nowadays, anyway). That is something which I have mentioned in a number of other threads on this forum on a number of occasions whilst discussing my own local conditions here in Edinburgh, and that is clearly the case when it comes to the CET as well.

The fact that this month is turning out to be so mild and therefore possibly produce an even higher CET than what anyone had predicted will in the end, show us just how poor this so-called "winter" has been overall, at least in terms of the CET.

 

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Met Office Hadley         4.6c.     Anomaly      0.4c.  provisional to 12th.

Metcheck                      4.80c    Anomaly      0.60c

Netweather                   5.12c    Anomaly      0.93c

Canvey Island                6.1c     Anomaly      0.7c

Clevedon Weather          6.5c     Anomaly       0.57c

Forest Town Mansfield     5.0c     Anomaly       0.7c

Peasedown St John         6.9c     Anomaly       2.65c

Treviskey Redruth           6.9c     Anomaly       0.27c.

Mena of my 10 stations 5.46c.  Anomaly   0.91c.     

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Quite happy with my guess, although I'm already out of the running having forgotten to enter in January!

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Quite happy with my guess, although I'm already out of the running having forgotten to enter in January!

No Rob!  You’re not out of the running!  GW will average your score from the months you entered and include it as if you’d entered in January, so you’re still in the game!  

The rules state that you can miss no more than two months in a year to stay in the comp.  So if anyone else wants to join in, March is their last chance to be in the annual cometition!  

[edit]  Copied from the January thread:

Missed predictions

If a person participating in the annual CET competition does not make a prediction in any one month (including January) their prediction error for that month will be calculated as follows:

- the upper quartile (75th percentile) of the prediction errors of all the people in the annual competition who did make a prediction for that month will be calculated at the end of the month;

The result of the above calculation will be used as the CET prediction error for any person who misses a prediction in a particular month subject to one further point:

- If, for any person, their average monthly prediction error for all the previous months in the year to date is higher than the 75th percentile of errors (for those that did make a prediction) in the month the person in question made no prediction, then the average prediction error will be substituted instead of the 75th percentile figure. This override is only likely to apply to those people towards the foot of the table who have very made very large errors in previous months.

One final important point. If you want to be included in the year long competition you may not miss more than two predictions during a calendar year. If a third prediction is missed that person will be eliminated from the annual competition (otherwise it would mean 25% or more of the annual error being calculated on non-existent predictions which would reduce the credibility of the competition too much). However, that person can continue to make predictions for the purpose of the monthly competition.

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......and on that note, I’m off to Goa at the weekend and won’t be home for the start of the March comp.  I don’t bother with internet on holiday - that gets a holiday too!  So I’d better get my entry in early!  

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Doh!

 

Thing is snowman, you could easily have been right given the MetO longer outlooks maintained at the end of Jan. And in any case, having a few wildcard options adds to the fun!

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Met Office Hadley     4.8c.      Anomaly      0.7c. Provisional to 13th.

Metcheck                  4.86c     Anomaly      0.66c

Netweather               5.36c     Anomaly      1.17c

Clevedon Weather      6.6c       Anomaly       0.67c

Peasedown St John     7.1c      Anomaly       2.85c

Treviskey Redruth       6.9c      Anomaly       0.27c.

Mean of my 10 Stations 5.68c  Anomaly     1.13c.        

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What's caught pretty much all major long-range forecasting efforts out big-time this month is a combination of the failure of true El Nino forcing to establish itself despite traditional measures suggesting it should have, and the reversal from the SSW proving unable to propagate down to the troposphere despite having been so strong and prolonged.

 

The MJO has just crossed phase 7 at high amplitude with lagged response dominating the weather patterns of the next week of so.

Comparing the El Nino variant of MJO P7 composite with the neutral variant demonstrates with startling clarify just how big an impact this is having on the temperature regime across the UK; it's the difference between frigid northerlies or north-easterlies and balmy southerlies.

  

 

The MJO's now moving on through P8 at high amplitude, and still the El Nino v. Neutral differences have huge implications for the UK weather;

  

That on the left is pretty much the coldest blocking pattern possible for the UK, which requires El Nino conditions, while on the right we see what tends to occur with neutral conditions - deep troughs slow-moving west of the UK with us being subjected a very mild but unsettled regime.

Even under neutral conditions, if the SSW had propagated right down, we'd likely have managed a useful -NAO pattern for a few weeks thanks to a move negative AO allowing the focus of HLB to be more toward due north of the UK. There was a lot as of late Jan indicating that the SSW would pull through but it seems there was an underestimation of the power of a westerly QBO at 30 mb to derail that process.

 

With the SSW cast aside, we're left looking to tropical forcing as the dominant driver of our weather patterns.

Currently, the atmosphere is making its biggest effort so far this winter to take on the El Nino conditions as a very strong westerly wind burst takes place across the dateline - the best position for weakening the subtropical ridges (such as the Azores High) and opening the door to HLB development NW of the UK. This shift looks to occur in time to potentially bring about the Nino variant of MJO P8 response.

...yet the models aren't showing much appetite for the HLB aspect to this response. They hammer the Azores High down, yet heights remain stubbornly on the low side across Greenland, and the high across Europe has nowhere to go. You can really see it attempting to shift NW on the ECM 00z for example, but to little avail.

This is puzzling, as although the SSW hasn't come through for us, the lower-stratosphere is only weakly positive for zonal wind anomalies, so there's not much there to resist blocking development NW of the UK. 

It seems something else is being predicted by the modelling that counteracts the effects of even such a strong and well-positioned WWB. Be that rightly or wrongly so, remains to be seen! I have a nasty feeling early March isn't going to build on the springlike foundations set by mid-Feb.

Speaking of which, the concerning signals for March are partly discussed in this latest blog post of mine that examines the most likely ground conditions ('going') at the Cheltenham Festival, if anyone fancies a read .

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 Oh wow, SC!  I wish I could get my head around all that but I think I’ll leave it to those more able!  There’s no wonder the models have been all over the place!  It just goes to show, as I’ve been saying on other threads, that there are so many variables that influence our weather and we can’t rely on just a few to fall right to get our desired weather.  

I know the LRF’s have come under fire from some this winter, although I personally don’t take them at face value, but getting it wrong should help them look elsewhere for other influences and perhaps adjust the weighting for certain variables.  It’s trial and error, although I still believe our temperate maritime climate means our weather will always be subject to late changes.  

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Met Office Hadley         4.9c.     Anomaly     1.0c. Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                      4.88c    Anomaly      0.68c

Netweather                   5.4c      Anomaly      1.21c

Hexham                        3.9c      Anomaly      -0.31c

Forest  Town Mansfield    5.1c      Anomaly      0.8c

Peasedown St John         7.1c      Anomaly     2.85c

Treviskey  Redruth          6.8c.     Anomaly     0.17c.

Mean of my 10 stations   5.55c. Anomaly  1.0c.   

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Potentially some extraordinary temperatures for the rest of this month. Very warm conditions continuing to the end of the month. But of course things can still change.

Currently my tracker suggests a final CET of 7.08C.

Now if we take the period from 6 - 28 February the CET is predicted to be 8.15C

For the period 4-28 Feb the CET is predicted to be 7.86C

The CET record for February is 7.9C

So had it not been for the very cold first three days of this month, we could well have been on course to break the all time CET record for February.

For the second half of February the CET is predicted to be 9.35C which is remarkable - although not perhaps so surprising after the 9.7C we recorded in December 2015. 

The last time we saw a 7C February was in 2002. The warmest February of recent times was 1998 with 7.3C. The same figure was recorded in 1990. I don't think we will beat that this year but nevertheless a CET above 7C is a real possibility.

One other point worth noting is that every February above 7C in recent times has been followed by a very warm March as well. 

           Feb CET   Mar CET

2002    7.0C        8.2C
1998    7.3C        7.9C
1990    7.3C        8.3C
1961    6.9C        8.2C
1945    7.1C        7.9C

In fact years with a Feb CET above 6C have tended to be followed by a very warm March. Only exception was 1995. So very much odds on a warm March this year as well.

Currently my tracker suggests a final CET of 7.08C.

Truly remarkable. 

Considering the background long range signals and met office forecasts look where we are going to potentially end up ! 

This winter has taught many of us a lesson into model frailty post 7 days.

 

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One other point worth noting is that every February above 7C in recent times has been followed by a very warm March as well. 

       

In fact years with a Feb CET above 6C have tended to be followed by a very warm March. Only exception was 1995. So very much odds on a warm March this year as well.

Interesting stuff GW.

Looking at the CETs for March since 1989 (so 30 years' worth), 19 out of 30 years had a March CET at least a degree higher than the 5.7 mean used so there was a greater than even chance (about 63%) that the warm Februaries would be followed by warm Marches, especially since 15 of the same 30 Februaries had a CET at least a degree warmer than average. 

The issue lies in the fact that the 1961-90 mean is still used for the CET (5.7) and for March since 1989, it's a full degree higher than that (est. 6.7 or 6.8- someone could work it out) which is an amazing difference, even by modern warming standards, over such a relatively short period.

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Met Office Hadley          5.1c.       Anomaly       1.2c. Provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                      5.14c       Anomaly       0.94c

Netweather                   5.51c       Anomaly       1.32c

Canvey Island               6.1c         Anomaly       0.7c

Cheadle Hulme              5.7c         Anomaly       0.69c

Clevedon Weather          6.9c         Anomaly       0.97c

Darwen                         5.1c         Anomaly       0.22c

Hexham                         4.7c        Anomaly       0.49c

Linford Bordon                5.9c        Anomaly       1.2c

Mount Sorrel                   5.2c        Anomaly       0.65c

Forest Town Mansfield      5.6c        Anomaly       1.3c

Peasedown St John         7.2c        Anomaly      2.95c

Treviskey Redruth          7.3c         Anomaly      0.67c

Mean Of My 10 Watched Stations  5.97c. Anomaly 1.42c.                                          

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Potentially some extraordinary temperatures for the rest of this month. Very warm conditions continuing to the end of the month. But of course things can still change.

Currently my tracker suggests a final CET of 7.08C.

Now if we take the period from 6 - 28 February the CET is predicted to be 8.15C

For the period 4-28 Feb the CET is predicted to be 7.86C

The CET record for February is 7.9C

So had it not been for the very cold first three days of this month, we could well have been on course to break the all time CET record for February.

For the second half of February the CET is predicted to be 9.35C which is remarkable - although not perhaps so surprising after the 9.7C we recorded in December 2015. 

The last time we saw a 7C February was in 2002. The warmest February of recent times was 1998 with 7.3C. The same figure was recorded in 1990. I don't think we will beat that this year but nevertheless a CET above 7C is a real possibility.

One other point worth noting is that every February above 7C in recent times has been followed by a very warm March as well. 

           Feb CET   Mar CET

2002    7.0C        8.2C
1998    7.3C        7.9C
1990    7.3C        8.3C
1961    6.9C        8.2C
1945    7.1C        7.9C

In fact years with a Feb CET above 6C have tended to be followed by a very warm March. Only exception was 1995. So very much odds on a warm March this year as well.

Oh crikey!  I’ve already sent in my March CET guess, due to holiday, and it looks like it could be way too low already!  That’s before we start March!    

No, I am not changing it!  Decision made!  

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It is unlikely of course, that anyone in this competition would actually ever predict any long-standing CET records to be broken when they are submitting their guess for this month (or any other month for that matter, as well as for the year as a whole) and that is as equally true for high temperature records as it is for low temperature records.

Because of that, I will be surprised if anyone gets close this time with their submitted guess in terms of where it all ends up and because of that, I wouldn't be surprised if it is simply the person who submitted the highest guess for this month who then ends up winning this time.

In that regard as well, the people who I feel sorry for here are those people such as Gavin P. (whose short-term, monthly and seasonal forecasts, I always rate very highly) who stated in their own official winter forecasts that this would probably end up being the coldest part of this whole winter because it appears as though it is the exact opposite of that which is actually happening.

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Potentially some extraordinary temperatures for the rest of this month. Very warm conditions continuing to the end of the month. But of course things can still change.

Currently my tracker suggests a final CET of 7.08C.

Now if we take the period from 6 - 28 February the CET is predicted to be 8.15C

For the period 4-28 Feb the CET is predicted to be 7.86C

The CET record for February is 7.9C - which was recorded in 1779

So had it not been for the very cold first three days of this month, we could well have been on course to break the all time CET record for February.

For the second half of February the CET is predicted to be 9.35C which is remarkable - although not perhaps so surprising after the 9.7C we recorded in December 2015. 

The last time we saw a 7C February was in 2002. The warmest February of recent times was 1998 with 7.3C. The same figure was recorded in 1990. I don't think we will beat that this year but nevertheless a CET above 7C is a real possibility.

One other point worth noting is that every February above 7C in recent times has been followed by a very warm March as well. 

           Feb CET   Mar CET

2002    7.0C        8.2C
1998    7.3C        7.9C
1990    7.3C        8.3C
1961    6.9C        8.2C
1945    7.1C        7.9C

In fact years with a Feb CET above 6C have tended to be followed by a very warm March. Only exception was 1995. So very much odds on a warm March this year as well.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Thanks GW! 

Incredible to think that a 7.0 CET month could be on the cards given how cold the first couple of days were! 

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