BBC monthly outlook
Summary
Turning much wetter and breezier than recently
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Wednesday 27 February—Sunday 3 March
Turning unsettled and less mild than recently
Once any early low cloud or fog has cleared, Wednesday will be the last widely very mild and sunny day for a while. Temperatures will again rise well-above normal for late February with highs into the high teens Celsius for many southern and south-eastern areas of Britain, perhaps approaching 20 Celsius in a few spots. On Thursday, after a grey and misty start for many with early fog in the north and east, much of the UK will have a cloudier day. Showery rain will spread from the west over much of the southern half of the country but northern England and much of Scotland should escape largely dry.
It will be less mild than recently albeit with temperatures still a few degrees Celsius above what we might expect for late February.
Friday is also likely to have a widely dull and misty start with spots of drizzle in places. Many areas will then keep a lot of cloud through much of the day but it should turn brighter in places in the late afternoon. This weekend will then be unsettled and windy at times with showers and bands of rain sweeping eastwards across the UK. There is a risk of gales over north-western areas later on Saturday.
Monday 4 March—Sunday 10 March
Wet and windy at times.
The first full week of March looks like it will stay quite unsettled, with several fronts moving through, bringing rain and strong winds at times. In between the bands of rain, there should be some drier and brighter interludes but there are likely to be an absence of any prolonged dry and sunny periods of weather. Indications are for the wettest conditions to affect the south and west of the UK. The best of the drier and brighter spells are most likely to be over north-eastern areas. It will be much less mild than recently with temperatures mostly near or only a couple of degrees above the early March average. No significant or severe cold is likely, however.
Monday 11 March—Sunday 24 March
Unsettled initially, then drier weather returning
Low pressure will likely be the dominant weather pattern across the UK until the middle part of March. Therefore, we can expect some further wet and windy episodes of weather for a time with further showers and bands of rain spreading from the Atlantic. Again, the western and southern half of the UK appears to be most prone to the wet and windy conditions with the best of any drier and brighter periods of weather likely to be over north-eastern areas.
After mid-month (there is some uncertainty over the timing) we should see an area of high pressure re-building near to the UK. Therefore, drier and somewhat calmer conditions should begin to predominate again later in the month with wet and windy conditions becoming more confined to the far-north. Temperatures are likely to be variable but, overall, should be near or slightly above the average for March.
Next Update
We will take another look at the forecast for March to see if there are any stronger signals for the timing of when some spring sunshine will return.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook