BBC monthly outlook
Summary
Mild, settled end to February; unsettled in March
_________________________________________
Wednesday 20 February—Sunday 24 February
Rain in some areas at first, but turning drier.
Rather cloudy and damp during the middle of the week as a frontal system moves through, although the southern counties of England look like they will escape with mostly dry weather. The best of any bright spells will be along the south coast on Wednesday. Things will then be taking a turn towards drier and sunnier weather for the rest of the week and into the weekend. Some lingering cloud will stick around for parts of Scotland, but the majority of the UK will be mostly sunny and very mild in the afternoons, with foggy mornings. On Sunday, a very weak cold front will move into the northwest and bring some clouds and patchy light rain to mainly Scotland and Northern Ireland. Both Friday and Saturday look to be unseasonably warm days with widespread afternoon temperatures hitting 15 to 16 Celsius, with a few spots possibly seeing 17! Clear nights with light winds will get chilly in places, with morning lows in the low single figures for most. Many places in England and Wales will see crisp, foggy mornings following by mild, mostly sunny afternoons.
Monday 25 February—Sunday 3 March
Dry and settled at first, then turning unsettled.
High pressure is expected to stick around for the last few days of February, so we expect a continuation of the dry, settled and mild weather to end the month. However, Monday and Tuesday could be quite grey and murky for some, especially in the south and east, with morning mist or fog preceding afternoon overcast skies. Any breaks in the cloud will likely see very mild afternoon highs, but in places where the cloud remains through the afternoon it will feel a bit cooler. There is some uncertainty regarding the forecast for the start of March, but it is most likely that we will see the ridge of high pressure slowly declining to the south and east.
This is likely to be a gradual process, so don't expect a sudden change to stormy weather. We will more likely see an increasing risk of rain in the north and west of the country, mainly for Scotland and Northern Ireland and it is likely to become a little windier. However, on the whole the end of February and start of March are likely to be relatively dry, mild and calm. The most likely alternative to this slight shift to less settled weather is for the ridge of high pressure to remain close to the UK into the start of March, with little change to the dry, calm and mild weather. There is only a very small chance of any cool weather, and we don't see any significant indications of any cold weather at this stage.
Monday 4 March—Sunday 17 March
Briefly unsettled, then high pressure returns.
The transition from settled, calm weather to more unsettled conditions is expected to continue in early March.We are likely to see much more of a westerly pattern developing, with our weather mostly coming in from the Atlantic, bringing wetter, windier weather for most of the country, although central and eastern England may avoid the worst of it. Temperatures are likely to be close to average for the time of year or a little above average for most areas, although there is a slight chance that it could become relatively cool for the time of year if winds turn more north-westerly.
At this stage there does not appear to be any support for widespread, long-lived cold as we saw this time last year. The unsettled spell is likely to be relatively short-lived as we're already seeing indications that high pressure will start to build across northern Europe around the middle of March. In fact, there is a roughly 20% chance that the high pressure ridge could build in sooner than we expect, limiting the unsettled spell to just a few days. Once the high takes hold again, any rain will be pushed west, with only Northern Ireland and extreme western Scotland likely to be affected. The rest of the country will likely stay dry and calm, with temperatures near or just above normal for the time of year.
Next Update
Will high pressure remain in charge as we move through March?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook