Friday 12 Apr - Sunday 21 Apr

Friday will be cold but mostly dry across the north with perhaps a few light showers and some snow flurries, even to lower levels, but with no significant accumulations expected. There is a greater chance of rain in the south, but details of this are uncertain and many areas will see some good spells of dry weather developing with some overnight frosts. A gradual change to more wet and windy weather is likely to develop from the weekend, particularly in the southwest, perhaps spreading into northwestern areas. Some intermittent drier, brighter interludes are also likely as well. After the cold spell, temperatures will gradually increase back to the seasonal average, perhaps even warm in the south and southeast.

Monday 22 Apr - Monday 6 May

There is low confidence with regard to the extended outlook, but there are weak signals that favour slow moving weather patterns, and a greater likelihood of warmer and drier than average weather overall.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

They are proving to be very good. 

Saturday 13 Apr - Monday 22 Apr

The weekend will be largely fine and dry with sunny spells for many. Perhaps a few scattered showers are possible in the east. Generally rather cold, with widespread overnight frost. Temperatures perhaps closer to normal in sheltered and sunnier western parts. There is the increasing signal into next week of conditions turning more changeable across the south and southwest with some spells of rain, with any further northward spread uncertain. The spells of rain are likely to be interspersed with showers, also with drier and brighter spells of weather. There should be a fair amount of dry and bright weather around, especially in the north and northwest. Following the colder interlude, temperatures are likely to recover to near-normal, with warm conditions likely at times, especially in the south and west.

Tuesday 23 Apr - Tuesday 7 May

There is low confidence with regard to the extended outlook, but there are weak signals that favour slow moving weather patterns, and a greater likelihood of warmer and drier than average weather overall.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Brian is quoted in the sun today as saying 'The beast from the north east'

@TWOweather Hi. Quick question... Did the newspapers get this quote from something you’ve written online or did you speak to them directly? This was in @TheSun but quotes elsewhere... pic.twitter.com/hBOqBTmjOO

— Liam Dutton - Weatherman (@liamdutton) April 9, 2019

Not here, lately especially. Been forecasting warmer weather with some sunshine for past few days and it has been bleak and cold and damp. Today's forecast was for sun and still wet and miserable and cold, 9C at 12.30 am. Can't wait for tomorrow's much colder weather to kick in - it will be 4C warmer!

Sunday 14 Apr - Tuesday 23 Apr

Sunday will be mostly fine and dry with sunny spells for most. Chance of a few showers in the east. Generally rather cold, with widespread overnight frost. Temperatures perhaps closer to normal in sheltered and sunnier western parts. There is the increasing signal into next week of conditions turning more changeable across the south and southwest with some spells of rain, with any further northward spread uncertain. The spells of rain are likely to be interspersed with showers, also with drier and brighter spells of weather. There should be a fair amount of dry and bright weather around, especially in the north and northwest. Following the colder interlude, temperatures are likely to recover to near-normal, with warm conditions likely at times, especially in the south and west.

Wednesday 24 Apr - Wednesday 8 May

There is low confidence with regard to the extended outlook, but there are weak signals that favour slow moving weather patterns, and a greater likelihood of warmer and drier than average weather overall.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Settled but cooler this week, then changeable.

_________________________________

Wednesday 10 April—Sunday 14 April

A cooler, settled week. Cloudy at times

A weak frontal boundary will linger briefly Wednesday morning across the far south of England, keeping things a bit cloudy down there, but high pressure building in from the north will push it off into the Channel, leaving the UK dry and settled for the rest of the week. However, as a ridge of high pressure builds in, winds will shift easterly to north-easterly and bring in some noticeably cooler Scandinavian air, bringing temperatures down to a few degrees below average for the second half of the week.

High pressure will remain in charge for the rest of the week, keeping things settled. The north-easterly flow will be mostly dry, but will likely bring in quite a bit of cloud from the North Sea at times. Nights will be marked by chilly fog and some frost in a few clearer spots, while the afternoons will be partly to mostly cloudy, with the best of the sun in western and central areas. Occasionally some isolated pockets of drizzle will drift in with some of the thicker cloud banks from the North Sea, and in eastern areas the cloud may linger for most of the day, keeping things dreary and chilly.

As we move into the weekend, an upper level low will drift across Central Europe, which will bring the a slight chance of the odd shower into the Southeast from Saturday. This will also increase the winds in the South, so the weekend will be a bit breezier than the week. The low may also bring in a thicker band of low cloud across the North Sea into the Southeast coast, blanketing East Anglia and possibly reaching into London Sunday, making for a grey finish to the weekend. Further north things will stay settled and dry, with the greatest risk for North Sea low cloud in the Southeast.

Monday 15 April—Sunday 21 April

Turning more unsettled, but also milder

Early in the working week high pressure to the north will likely have weakened enough to allow a return of more unsettled weather into the UK, and much of western Europe at large. This will also bring in some milder air from the southwest. High pressure will be lurking somewhere across Europe this week, and this is the main source of uncertainty. Models are struggling with just where this high pressure might be, and as a result the forecast for the UK has been changing significantly. High pressure located a bit further west will keep most of the unsettled weather over Ireland and Scotland, leaving England and Wales largely fine and dry. A slight shift to the east, and things become wetter and windier for all.

Confidence is still low, but growing for this week overall. We are reasonably certain that there will be a return to a period of unsettled weather mid-week, with an upper level low on Tuesday and Wednesday bringing some showery weather, spreading north on Thursday. Towards the weekend of the 20th and 21st there are indications that we will start to see more widespread high pressure across central and western Europe again, which will start to push low pressure off to the west and bring more settled weather back into the UK. However, the ridge of high pressure is expected to continue heading westwards into the North Atlantic, with a trough of low pressure moving in from the east behind. This may occur on Easter Sunday or perhaps the following Monday, and will bring in a spell of unsettled weather.

Monday 22 April—Sunday 5 May

Warm, settled end of April and start of May.

As the high from earlier in April heads westward into the North Atlantic, a trough of low pressure will replace it from the east. This will bring in a brief spell of unsettled and cooler weather, likely lasting for much of the week starting Monday 22nd. The crucial aspect is what day this unsettled weather will drift in. There is still a lot of uncertainty on the exact timing, so confidence remains low, but the bulk of the Easter weekend is looking to stay settled currently, with the shift to unsettled weather taking place Monday 22nd or Tuesday 23rd .

The wave pattern across Europe and the North Atlantic will continue to track westward, so after several days the low pressure trough will slowly head out into the North Atlantic, with ridging building in behind from the east. This high pressure will bring in much milder air from the south, along with largely settled weather, although the settled weather will likely take a few days to become established. The last full week of April will likely be mostly settled with occasional weak fronts bringing some light rain. By the first week of May, high pressure should be firmly established across the UK, keeping things warm, dry, and settled.

Next Update

While the start of the Easter weekend should be settled, we can hopefully pin down the timing of unsettled weather in the following week.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Second 'bomb cyclone' in a month to hit the United States

Snow blizzards and gale-force winds are forecast to strike the central United States, across the US Plains and the Midwest.

The US is braced for its second winter storm in a month with forecasters warning of more heavy snow, freezing temperatures and flooding. Blizzards and gale-force winds will strike across the central United States, across the US Plains and Midwest, running from the Rockies to the Great Lakes from Wednesday into Thursday. The National Weather Service said some areas of western Minnesota and southeast South Dakota could see up to 2.5ft (30in) of snowfal

https://news.sky.com/story/second-bomb-cyclone-in-a-month-to-hit-the-united-states-11689428

Monday 15 Apr - Wednesday 24 Apr

There is reasonably high confidence in the general trend next week. Monday looks mostly dry with some sunshine, although temperatures will be below average with a cold east to southeasterly wind. Rain may edge in across the far west and southwest. From Tuesday to Thursday the weather is generally likely to become more changeable from the south and southwest, with most areas seeing some rain. However, the far north could stay drier and brighter. Temperatures should rise to average, turning locally rather warm in the south and west. Confidence reduces markedly during Easter and the start of the following week. However, the weather looks mixed with rain and some sun at times, the rain becoming most likely towards the northwest. Temperatures will trend from slightly above average to nearer normal.

Thursday 25 Apr - Thursday 9 May

Confidence is low. The weather is most likely to be rather mixed with showers or longer spells of rain, the most widespread of which is expected to affect northwestern parts of the United Kingdom. However, all areas can also expect some drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures are generally likely to be near or slightly above normal during this period, but with some marked day on day variations, as often happens at this time of the year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Tuesday 16 Apr - Thursday 25 Apr

Central and eastern areas will be largely dry to start the period, with some bright or sunny spells likely. In the west and southwest however, it will be cloudier initially, with some rain or scattered showers at times, and they could be accompanied by strong winds. Temperatures should rise to average occasionally, and they could turn locally rather warm in the south and east. Confidence then reduces markedly during Easter and the start of the following week. However, the weather looks most likely to be mixed, with rain and some sun at times. Temperatures will trend from slightly above average to nearer normal overall, but it will still be rather warm at times in the southeast.

Friday 26 Apr - Friday 10 May

Confidence is low for the end of April and beginning of May. The weather is most likely to be rather mixed, with showers or longer spells of rain. However, all areas can also expect some drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures are generally likely to be near or slightly above the seasonal average during this period, but with some marked day on day variations, as often happens at this time of the year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Wednesday 17 Apr - Friday 26 Apr

Many places will be dry and bright for the start of the period, with bright or sunny spells. The best of the sunshine will be in the west and northwest and it will most likely be warm for the time of year, but cold weather is still likely in the northeast. Thereafter, temperatures should rise to the seasonal average occasionally, and they could turn locally rather warm in the south and east. Confidence then reduces markedly during Easter and the start of the following week. However, the weather looks most likely to be mixed, with rain and some sun at times. Temperatures will trend from slightly above average to nearer normal overall, but it will still be rather warm at times in the southeast.

Saturday 27 Apr - Saturday 12 May

Confidence is low for the end of April and beginning of May. The weather is most likely to be rather mixed and more unsettled, with showers or longer spells of rain. However, all areas can also expect some drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures are generally likely to be near or slightly above average during this period, with warm conditions probable in the south and southeast. However, there will be some marked day on day variations, as often happens at this time of the year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Thursday 18 Apr - Saturday 27 Apr

Many places will be dry and bright for the start of the period, with bright or sunny spells. The best of the sunshine will be in the west and northwest and it will most likely be warm for the time of year, but cold weather is still likely in the northeast. Thereafter, temperatures should rise to the seasonal average occasionally, and they could turn locally rather warm in the south and east. Confidence then reduces markedly during Easter and the start of the following week. However, the weather looks most likely to be mixed, with rain and some sun at times. Temperatures will trend from slightly above average to nearer normal overall, but it will still be rather warm at times in the southeast.

Sunday 28 Apr - Sunday 13 May

Confidence is low for the end of April and beginning of May. The weather is most likely to be rather mixed and more unsettled, with showers or longer spells of rain. However, all areas can also expect some drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures are generally likely to be near or slightly above average during this period, with warm conditions probable in the south and southeast. However, there will be some marked day on day variations, as often happens at this time of the year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Milder but wetter by Easter


• Drier end to the month


• Late frosts still possible

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers*  https://weathertrending.com/2019/04/12/john-hammond-month-ahead-cold-winds-begone/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Warming up but briefly unsettled

_________________________________

Saturday 13 April—Sunday 21 April

More unsettled but also warmer

To start the week, high pressure will be the main player for the weather across the UK. However, things will be a bit more unsettled than they were last week. An upper level low in Central Europe over the weekend will bring a few showers into the Southeast, and occasional one or two further north along the east coast of Britain. Cloud will likely be quite variable, but the best of the sun will be in the western and central counties. On Sunday night and Monday, a frontal system in Ireland will bring some cloudiness, stronger winds, and rain into Southwest England and Northern Ireland, but further east is should stay dry. One or two showers are still possible along the east coast, but mainly in the northeast. This will also shift the winds to more southeasterly, tapping into some warmer Mediterranean air. Rain will continue into Tuesday for the southwest before easing, and then things get a bit more uncertain.

There are good indications that high pressure will build back in to the north of the UK and over Scotland from Wednesday, keeping things settled. However, low pressure south in the Bay of Biscay and France while bring scattered sharp and at times thundery showers. There is a bit of uncertainty regarding just how strong the high will build in to the north, and if it is slightly weaker or slightly further north, the low from the south will be able to bring its showery weather into the southern half of the UK from Thursday. Through the end of the week and into the weekend the temperatures will turn warmer, with afternoon highs reaching into the mid or upper-teens in the south, and into the mid-teens in the north.

Monday 22 April—Sunday 28 April

Turning more unsettled, but staying warm

Heading into late April the high pressure across Northern Europe that has been keeping things mostly settled for the UK will begin to slowly slide westwards, with a trough of low pressure developing in its place of Scandinavia and the UK. There is still a bit of uncertainty on the exact timing of the transition to more unsettled weather, and the ridge of high pressure will be fairly slow moving so this will likely be a gradual shift over the course of a few days. The trough of low pressure will eventually bring in more unsettled weather and fronts, along with a cooler northeasterly flow, although temperatures will still remain around or just above average for the time of year.

However, as the week goes on, the trough of low pressure will also shift slowly westwards, and as the low shifts into the North Atlantic, the winds will shift to a southwesterly direction. This will bring in some warmer sub-tropical air, bringing temperatures a bit above average again. Frontal systems will still move through at times, but high pressure building in Eastern Europe will keep them from sweeping across the UK with strong winds and colder, polar air. Overall the last full week of April will be a bit above average for temperatures, and more unsettled than mid-April with occasional frontal systems and spells of rain, but also dry interludes and warmer air from the southwest.

Monday 29 April—Sunday 12 May

May turning settled and continuing the warm trend

The westward moving trough of low pressure will continue to head into the North Atlantic through the end of April and early May. This will in turn be replaced by a slow-moving ridge of high pressure from the east. As with late-April, this will likely be a very gradual shift in the pattern occurring over the course of several days. However, by early May and at least through mid-May, high pressure looks to be the dominant weather feature for the UK and most of Northern and Central Europe.

This will keep the weather settled, calm, and dry for most, although the occasional weak front may briefly bring a spell of cloudiness or light rain to the far north and west. Warm air will continue to feed into Central Europe and spring should establish itself in force during May. There are signals for some warm or very warm spells into mid-May with temperatures generally above average thanks to the sunnier skies and light winds. Dry weather may persist for a significant amount of time in May, so rainfall will likely be below or even well below average.

Next Update

Will the warm trend continue until the middle of May?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Friday 19 Apr - Sunday 28 Apr

Many places will be dry for Good Friday, with warm sunny spells. The cloudiest areas are likely to be in the northwest, and along some eastern coastlines, where it will be a little cooler. The rest of the Easter weekend is looking to be mainly dry and warm, though there is still some uncertainty in the forecast as to how cloudy it will be, and whether there may be some rain in northwestern parts of the UK. For the rest of April, the weather looks likely to become more mixed with some rain at times, particularly in the west and northwest. Temperatures will mainly be fairly warm, especially in the southeast in any sunshine, however it will be cooler under any cloud and rain.

Monday 29 Apr - Monday 14 May

Confidence is low for the end of April and beginning of May. The weather is most likely to be rather mixed and more unsettled, with showers or longer spells of rain. However, all areas can also expect some drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures are generally likely to be near or slightly above average during this period, with warm conditions probable in the south and southeast. However, there will be some marked day on day variations, as often happens at this time of the year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Saturday 20 Apr - Monday 29 Apr

Easter weekend is likely to start off warm or very warm for most areas with a good deal of dry sunny weather. However, some coasts will be a little cooler with the onshore breeze. As we head towards the end of the weekend, there is increasing uncertainty so please keep up to date with the latest forecast if you are making plans. It does look as if it will turn more changeable and cooler from the northwest from Sunday. However there remains the chance that southeastern areas could remain warm and settled until Monday. For the rest of April, the weather looks changeable and perhaps windy at times with showers or longer spells of rain, but still with some drier, brighter, spells. Temperatures should be mainly around average.

Tuesday 30 Apr - Tuesday 15 May

Confidence is low by the end of April. The weather is most likely to be rather mixed and more unsettled at the turn of the month, with showers or longer spells of rain. However, some drier and brighter conditions are possible, more especially in the southeast. During the first half of May, there is very low confidence in the forecast. On balance, there is a slightly greater chance that some longer dry spells are likely for most places. There will however be some brief, more changeable interludes for all parts. Temperatures into May will probably be near or slightly above average. However, as is usual this time of year there will be some marked variations in temperature through the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Sunday 21 Apr - Tuesday 30 Apr

The second half of the Easter weekend will slowly turn more changeable and cooler, with outbreaks of rain and stronger winds spreading in from the northwest. However, some southeastern parts could remain dry, bright and fairly warm especially through Sunday and at first on Monday. Thereafter, for the remainder of April the weather looks set to become generally more changeable across the UK with showers or longer spells of rain, as well as some periods with stronger winds. Despite this, there will be some drier and brighter interludes at times and overall, temperatures should be around average for the end of April. As it often the case at this time of year, there may be some marked variations in temperature across the country.

Wednesday 1 May - Wednesday 16 May

During the first half of May, there is very low confidence in the forecast. On balance, there is a slightly greater chance that some longer dry spells are likely for most places. There will however be some brief, more changeable interludes for all parts. Temperatures into May will probably be near or slightly above average. However, as is usual this time of year there will be some marked variations in temperature through the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Warm this week, more unsettled next week

_________________________________

Wednesday 17 April—Sunday 21 April

Largely settled and warm into the weekend

Most parts of the United Kingdom will have calm and settled weather for the rest of this week. This is due to an area of high pressure extending south-westwards across the country. There will be a slight chance of showers across central and eastern England on Wednesday, but otherwise the run-up to the Easter Weekend will be dry and bright with some decent sunny periods. Temperatures have already started to pick up, and it is expected to become warmer still. Friday and Saturday are likely to see temperatures reaching the low to mid-twenties across many parts of the country - quite warm for the time of year.

There will be a chance of some rain in the north-west of Scotland on Saturday and during Saturday night, but this rain should be mainly light. Sunday could see this rain moving into northern England but it will remain fairly light. Scotland looks likely to have a cooler, or maybe 'less warm' day on Sunday with temperatures back to nearer normal for the time of year. It will remain warm in most other areas, with southern England likely to see temperatures in the twenties again. With high pressure and light winds expected, we are likely to see some mist and fog forming overnight. This is most likely in the Midlands and Eastern England on Friday night/Saturday morning, but the odd patch of mist or fog could form elsewhere, in more sheltered areas.

Monday 22 April—Sunday 28 April

An unsettled week of weather

The area of high pressure responsible for the fine and dry weather will shift eastwards, allowing Atlantic weather systems to reach the UK next week. Unfortunately for anyone with outdoor plans, this change is expected to be on Bank Holiday Monday. There is some uncertainty over the details, but it looks as though the South East has the best chance of staying dry and warm on Monday. Other areas are more likely to see cloud and showers or longer spells of rain. It will become cooler, and it may become windy too.

From Tuesday onwards, we expect all areas to be in the more unsettled regime. Low pressure is likely to be nearby, so there will be a chance of showers and rain across the country. There is a chance of some heavy, thundery showers around the middle of next week. Some windy weather is likely, although gales are not expected. It will be cooler than this week, but temperatures are expected to be near normal for the time of year. Whilst we are reasonably confident that there will be a transition to unsettled weather next week, there is chance that low pressure does not linger close to the UK for the whole of the week. If this happens, and there is a roughly 25% chance of this, then the end of the week will be drier and less windy again. It may even become a little warmer.

Monday 29 April—Sunday 12 May

Becoming more settled again in May

There is some uncertainty over the forecast for the end of April and first half of May. The most likely case is that the low pressure system(s) affecting north-western Europe will weaken and move away to the north. As this happens, high pressure will build back across the UK, bringing a return to relatively calm and dry weather. Temperatures are also expected to lift above normal again for most areas, with the south and east likely to be warmest - there will be the chance of some very warm weather moving in from France, perhaps with some thunderstorms. This high pressure dominated pattern is likely to persist through much of the first third of May.

After this, there are indications that the ridge of high pressure will drift further west at times, allowing for some spells of cooler, wetter and winder weather to develop. It is worth noting that we are not expecting any widespread and sustained wet and windy weather. In fact, we think rainfall will return to near normal, with temperatures near normal in most areas too. The uncertainty in the forecast means we are also seeing a couple of alternatives to our most likely forecast. The first is that high pressure remains over the UK, so we see a continuation of the dry and settled weather. This has a roughly 30% chance of occurring. There is a lesser chance of low pressure becoming more of a feature, with wetter windier weather developing in May. There is only a ~10% chance of this though.

Next Update

We'll be able to give a bit more detail for the weather at the end of April and start of May.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

I have to laugh at the Huffington Post. Their headline story says "Britain to bask in Easter heatwave" which is at least half true, but if you scroll down the page, it says "Arctic blast to put Spring on hold." You couldn't make this stuff up if you tried.

Monday 22 Apr - Wednesday 1 May

During Easter Monday it may turn cooler and more unsettled across northern and western areas, with stronger winds and outbreaks of heavy rain. Many other areas will stay dry with warm spells of sunshine continuing. Thereafter, for the remainder of April there is low confidence in the forecast, but the weather will perhaps become more changeable and generally less warm, at least for a time with showers or longer spells of rain and some periods with stronger winds. However, some drier, brighter and warmer interludes are still likely at times, these most probable across southern and southeastern parts, although overall, temperatures will still be close to average for late April. At times, there may be some marked variations in temperatures across the country though.

Tuesday 2 May - Tuesday 17 May

During the first half of May, there is very low confidence in the forecast. On balance, there is a slightly greater chance that it will be settled, with some longer spells of dry and bright weather for many places, but especially so across the south. Rain is still possible at times, although with a good deal of fine weather temperatures will be mostly above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Tuesday 23 Apr - Thursday 2 May

The fine weather will continue for many on Tuesday, with plenty of warm sunshine. Perhaps cloudier in the west or southwest with the risk of a few heavy showers by the afternoon or evening. Thereafter, for the remainder of April there is lower confidence in the forecast, but the weather will perhaps become more changeable and generally less warm, at least for a time with showers or longer spells of rain and some periods with stronger winds. However, some drier, brighter and warmer interludes are still likely at times, these most probable across southern and southeastern parts, although overall, temperatures will still be close to average for late April. At times, there may be some marked variations in temperatures across the country though.

Wednesday 3 May - Wednesday 18 May

During the first half of May, there is very low confidence in the forecast. On balance, there is a slightly greater chance that it will be settled, with some longer spells of dry and bright weather for many places, but especially so across the south. Rain is still possible at times, although with a good deal of fine weather temperatures will be mostly above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC forecast talking of a cut-off low in the SW approaches throwing up these showers in the shape of thunderstorms

Wednesday 24 Apr - Friday 3 May

There is a risk of thunderstorms from the south on Wednesday, with drier weather in the north. Temperatures could remain warmer than the seasonal average, and this is most likely in the south. Thereafter, for the remainder of April there is lower confidence in the forecast, but the weather will perhaps become more changeable and generally less warm. There will be a chance of showers or longer spells of rain and some periods of stronger winds, especially in the north and west. However, some drier, brighter and warmer interludes are still likely at times, these most probable across southern and southeastern parts, although overall, temperatures will still be close to average for late April. At times, there may be some marked variations in temperatures across the country though.

Thursday 4 May - Thursday 19 May

For the beginning of May, confidence in the forecast falls to low. On balance, there is a slightly greater chance that it will be settled, with some longer spells of dry and bright weather for many places, but especially so across the south. Rain is still possible at times, although with a good deal of fine weather temperatures will be mostly above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Given that the confidence in these forecasts is described as low, it begs the question, is there any point in actually issuing them in the first place?