UK weather: February temperature jump was incredible, says climate expert

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/mar/02/uk-temperature-jump-february-incredible-climate-weather-carbon?CMP=share_btn_tw

 

Picture caption:

"The M876 motorway in Scotland on 31 January last year, during the Beast from the East, and in February this year. Photograph: Andrew Milligan/PA"

 

Guardian fact checking in full force this morning I see.

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Picture caption:

"The M876 motorway in Scotland on 31 January last year, during the Beast from the East, and in February this year. Photograph: Andrew Milligan/PA"

 

Guardian fact checking in full force this morning I see.

They got the date of the Beast wrong for a start: It didn't arrive until the last couple of days of Feb 2018 and not at the end of Jan as they claim. Also, I'm not sure what the fact that the late part of Feb this year saw totally different weather to the same time in 2018 proves, other than just how fickle the British weather can be.

Perhaps the Guardian's climate expert should be reminded that it can work the other way too, and there is a pretty good recent example. March 2012 was one of the warmest Marchs on record, yet look at how unusually cold the same month was the following year, the coldest March since the early 60's I think it was.

 

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wetter, breezier and cooler than recently

_________________________________________

Saturday 2 March—Sunday 10 March

Wet and windy at times. Turning chillier.

This weekend will be unsettled and windy at times. After a bright start for many, Saturday will see cloud and outbreaks of rain spreading from the west, accompanied by a strengthening south-westerly wind. On Sunday, further rain is likely to spread from the south-west with strong and gusty winds developing over parts of England and Wales. There is a risk of some snow mixed-in over upland areas of the north before it turns somewhat drier from the west on Sunday night. Temperatures will be lower than last weekend's but still a little above the seasonal average for most.

Through Monday and Tuesday, it will be breezy and feeling somewhat chillier with temperatures falling to around the seasonal average. There are likely to be showers at times, these most prolonged in the west and south. There is the potential for some wintry showers mixed-in over hills in the north. The remainder of next week is also expected to be chillier than recently with showers and some bands of rain spreading eastwards, accompanied by strong winds at times. Rain could be quite widespread over southern areas for a time during the middle part of the week.

Monday 11 March—Sunday 17 March

Wet and windy at times but not cold

The middle part of March is likely to see a persistence of westerly winds, bringing further showers and bands of rain from the Atlantic at times. It is likely to be breezy at times too with the risk of occasional gales, particularly in the north and north-west. Rainfall amounts are expected to be above the seasonal average, albeit with the most frequent rainfall likely in the west and north.

Temperatures are likely to be often near or slightly above the seasonal average - no significant or prolonged cold weather is currently anticipated. However, compared with the exceptional warmth of late February, it will still feel much cooler.

Monday 18 March—Sunday 31 March

Gradually becoming drier and calmer

We should see a gradual change in the weather through the latter part of March. The breezy and damp weather expected through the first half of the month is expected to give way to drier and calmer conditions, thanks to an area of high pressure approaching from the south. The timing of this change is somewhat uncertain but outbreaks of rain and brisk winds should become less frequent than the preceding couple of weeks.

Daytime temperatures should recover too, rising above the seasonal average during any sunnier days. However, there will continue to be the risk of some chilly nights with occasional frost and fog. The main risk to the forecast is that high pressure does not build as much as expected, which would allow a continuation of wetter and breezier conditions - this risk is highest for northern parts of the country.

Next Update

Can we still expect a return to some spring sunshine later in March? We will take another look in the next update.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Met office

Friday 8 Mar - Sunday 17 Mar

A fine day for many on Friday, although there will be some showers in the north and east, these will possibly be wintry on the hills. It will probably cloud over from the west later on Friday, with a spell of wet and windy weather spreading to most parts on Saturday, before clearing to sunshine and showers on Sunday. Staying unsettled into next week with further showers or longer spells of rain and strong winds at times, with gales in places. It will be turning colder, with any showers turning wintry at times, especially in the north. It continues unsettled into the middle of the month, with further spells of wet and windy weather at times, which will be interspersed by brighter, colder and showery interludes.

Monday 18 Mar - Monday 1 Apr

Unsettled weather is likely to continue for the rest of March. Spells of rain and strong winds are likely, with brighter showery periods in between. The heaviest rainfall will probably be in the west, and snow is more likely over high ground in the north, possibly to lower levels here at times. There will be periods of milder and colder weather, with overnight frosts still possible. By late March confidence is low, but there are signs that the weather could become more settled at times, with more potential for some prolonged drier spells, especially in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Hmmm. Unsettled "for the rest of March"? Something I suggested yesterday.....I must admit u agree with this judgement

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Does anyone else think how much better the Beebs long rangers have been compared to the MetO’s?

Met office

Saturday 9 Mar - Monday 18 Mar

Saturday is looking windy with gales or severe gales as cloud, rain and hill snow push eastwards across the UK, sunny spells and showers following into the west. Further showers likely on Sunday, perhaps some more persistent rain or hill snow for a time. As temperatures drop below average for the time of year there will be an increasing risk of hail, sleet and snow to lower levels, mainly in the north. The following week will start unsettled with further some rain, sleet and snow. There may be a more settled interlude later Monday into Tuesday but further spells of wet weather will push in through the rest of the period. It will be windy with gales or even storm force winds with temperatures below average, especially in the north.

Tuesday 19 Mar - Tuesday 2 Apr

The unsettled weather affecting much of the UK at the start of this period is expected to gradually become confined to the north and northwest. It should turn increasingly settled in the south with the drier weather perhaps spreading nationwide by the start of April. It will be windy at times with the continuing risk of gales in the north and northwest, especially at first. The windy spells should become less frequent though with often light winds in the south. Temperatures will be near normal or rather cold at times, meaning some rural frost and fog is possible. However, there should be an overall trend for temperatures to rise from the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Freak weather 'will make life harder for business'

First we had the Beast from the East, then the joint hottest summer on record, and now February winter temperatures have soared to all-time highs (although those balmy conditions came to an end on Thursday).

It's clear that the British weather is getting harder to predict, while climatic events have become more common. And for UK businesses that is creating both opportunities and headaches, with experts warning that our capricious climate could make life harder for many.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47400729?ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

Freak weather 'will make life harder for business'

First we had the Beast from the East, then the joint hottest summer on record, and now February winter temperatures have soared to all-time highs (although those balmy conditions came to an end on Thursday).

It's clear that the British weather is getting harder to predict, while climatic events have become more common. And for UK businesses that is creating both opportunities and headaches, with experts warning that our capricious climate could make life harder for many.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47400729?ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

What an absolute load of sensationalist crap.

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MEPs vote to scrap twice-yearly clock change by 2021

A committee of MEPs has voted to scrap the custom of changing the clocks in spring and autumn by 2021, as momentum builds behind a draft law that could raise tensions with Britain after Brexit.

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/04/meps-vote-to-scrap-switch-from-summer-to-winter-time?__twitter_impression=true 

Met office

Sunday 10 Mar - Tuesday 19 Mar

Showers or longer spells of rain are likely on Sunday but also brighter interludes. It will be windy everywhere, with a widespread risk of gales, perhaps severe on coasts and hills. The north will be cold enough for some snow on hills. Next week will stay rather wet and windy with frequent showers or longer spells of rain and a few brighter intervals. Further gales are likely, probably in the north and west. Temperatures in the south are expected to stay around average for the time of year but it will probably be rather cold in the north. Snow on hills may spread to lower levels at times in the north. More settled weather may develop in the south and east at the start of the following week.

Wednesday 20 Mar - Wednesday 3 Apr

The wet and windy weather affecting much of the UK at the start of this period is expected to withdraw to the north and northwest, where there will be a continuing risk of coastal gales. In the south though, drier and less windy weather is likely to predominate perhaps spreading nationwide by the start of April. Temperatures will be near normal or rather cold at first, meaning rural frost and fog are likely, especially in the settled weather in the south. However, as Spring develops, there will be an overall trend for temperatures to rise.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet, breezy and cool at first; drier later

_________________________________________

Wednesday 6 March—Sunday 10 March

Wet and windy at times. Turning chillier.

The rest of this week will be wet and windy at times with bands of rain and showers spreading from west to east across the UK. Wednesday will be reasonably mild over England and Wales with at least a few bright spells developing for most. However, there will also be showers, accompanied by a brisk and gusty southerly wind. Some of these showers are likely to become heavy and thundery, particularly in the west and south. Scotland and Northern Ireland will stay somewhat chillier and cloudier for many with rain. Upland snow over the Highlands.

On Thursday, a band of showery rain will spread south-eastwards across the UK and it will feel a little chillier over England and Wales in strong westerly winds. However, there should be some brighter spells either side of the band of rain. After a bright but cold start, Friday is likely to see cloud and further rain spreading from the west later in the day. This weekend is likely to remain unsettled. There is the potential for some strong and gusty winds quite widely on Saturday along with squally showers, these perhaps wintry over hills. Strong winds and rain for some on Sunday, with the highest risk in the south and west.

Monday 11 March—Sunday 17 March

Further wet and windy weather. Chilly at times.

Next week is likely to see the unsettled weather continuing across the UK due to deep areas of low pressure approaching from the Atlantic at times.Through the week, bands of rain and showers are likely to continue spreading from west to east across the country.

It is likely to be quite chilly at times, particularly for a few days around the middle part of the week with showers turning wintry at times over hills. Windy at times, too, with a risk of occasional gales in the west and south in particular. There will also be some drier and brighter interludes but these are unlikely to last for long. Overall, an unsettled week with rainfall amounts above the seasonal average.

Monday 18 March—Sunday 31 March

Slowly turning drier and calmer from the south

We still expect to see a gradual change in the weather pattern through the latter part of March. The breezy and damp weather expected through the first half of the month is expected to slowly give way to drier and calmer conditions, thanks to an area of high pressure approaching from the south.The timing of this change remains somewhat uncertain but the southern half of the UK should see somewhat drier and calmer conditions developing first.

Towards the end of the month, we should see lengthier drier and calmer periods of weather extending further north across the country. Daytime temperatures are favoured to rise, too, with brighter and warmer days becoming more abundant later in the month. There is a slight chance that high pressure remains further away to the south-west than expected, which would lead to a persistence of wetter and breezier conditions. However, currently we still favour a slow trend to drier and warmer weather.

Next Update

It currently looks as though the old English proverb could be true for this March - 'March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb'. We will take another look to see if this month goes out like a lamb with a quieter and warmer ending.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Met office

Monday 11 Mar - Wednesday 20 Mar

Monday and Tuesday will be cloudy, wet and windy at times, but some brighter spells are likely too with scattered showers. Rain will be heaviest in the west and it will be cold enough for snow over northern hills, perhaps even to lower levels here at times. Similar weather will continue though the rest of the week with the potential for gales or severe gales. Temperatures will be around average for the time of year in the south, but it will stay rather cold overall in the north. There is a chance that the colder weather could extend further south at times. More settled weather may develop in the south and east at the start of the following week.

Thursday 21 Mar - Thursday 4 Apr

The wet and windy weather affecting much of the UK at the start of this period is expected to gradually withdraw to the north and northwest, where there will be a continuing risk of coastal gales. In the south though, drier and less windy weather is likely to predominate, perhaps spreading further north by the start of April. Temperatures will be near normal or rather cold at first, meaning rural frost and fog are likely, especially in the settled weather in the south. However, as spring develops, there will be an overall trend for temperatures to rise.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office

Tuesday 12 Mar - Thursday 21 Mar

Tuesday and Wednesday will be unsettled. Most likely, rain will be followed by brighter but colder showery conditions. Rain will be heaviest in the north and west and it will be cold enough for snow over northern hills, perhaps even to lower levels here at times. It will be windy for all, with gales or severe gales at times. Similar unsettled weather will continue though the rest of the week. Temperatures will vary around average for the time of year in the south, but it will stay rather cold overall in the north. There is a chance that the colder weather could extend further south at times. More settled weather may develop in the south and east towards the end of the period though.

Friday 22 Mar - Friday 5 Apr

Unsettled weather is likely to affect much of the UK at the start of this period. It is expected to gradually withdraw to the north and northwest though, where there will be a continuing risk of gales. Drier, more settled and less windy weather is likely to predominate in the south, perhaps spreading further north by the start of April. However, further changeable spells are still possible. Temperatures will be near normal or rather cold at first, meaning night frost and patchy fog are likely, especially in the settled weather in the south. However, as spring develops, there will be an overall trend for temperatures to rise, with some noticeably warmer days developing.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• More wet and windy weather


• Drier spell after mid-month


• Frost risk continues

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers*  https://weathertrending.com/2019/03/08/john-hammond-month-ahead-spring-confusing/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

Met office

10 day trend

Low pressure
Wind and rain
Colder air times

 

Met office

Wednesday 13 Mar - Friday 22 Mar

The start of this period is looking unsettled and windy with brighter but colder and showery weather, followed by cloud and rain. The heaviest and most frequent rain will be in the west and northwest. Some snow is likely over northern and central hills, and perhaps to lower levels in the north where it will be cold. It will remain windy as a further Atlantic system is likely to bring a spell of rain towards the end of next week, then turning showery and colder into the following weekend. Some snow is still likely, mainly in the north with the risk of hail and thunder. The colder weather in the north may spread further south at times. Thereafter it will remain largely unsettled, especially in the west and northwest.

Saturday 23 Mar - Saturday 6 Apr

Unsettled weather is likely to affect much of the UK at the start of this period. It is expected to gradually withdraw to the north and northwest though, where there will be a continuing risk of gales. Drier, more settled and less windy weather is likely to predominate in the south, perhaps spreading further north by the start of April. However, further changeable spells are still possible. Temperatures will be near normal or rather cold at first, meaning night frost and patchy fog are likely, especially in the settled weather in the south. However, as spring continues, there will be an overall trend for temperatures to rise, with some noticeably warmer days developing.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

The MetO forecast site is showing for this area on day 6 & day 7, continuous light cloud and average temperatures. This forecast is put up more often than not, and invariably gets altered for better or worse. I've come to regard it as a placeholder while the MetO makes up its mind, rather than a serious forecast.

That being the case, why do they bother with days 6 & 7, not just stay with 5.

And while I'm having a moan, I hate the new layout of the site with its requirement that you scroll everywhere to try and find out what you want? There's acres of blank space, so a compressed design which would give you the week at a glance would be possible and indeed much more useable.

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And while I'm having a moan, I hate the new layout of the site with its requirement that you scroll everywhere to try and find out what you want? There's acres of blank space, so a compressed design which would give you the week at a glance would be possible and indeed much more useable.

 That's a great point you've raised and one I was discussing with someone a couple of days ago. It is the current trend and is not specific to the Met Office website. The theory is that people are now used to vertical scrolling due to the increased use of smartphones. My view (FWIW) is it works well on some types of websites but not on others. In particular I don't think it well suited to news and weather. The flip-side of the coin is that 70% of their traffic probably comes from smartphones and tablets, so they take priority over desktop. However, it should be (and is) possible to accommodate both. 

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Met office

Thursday 14 Mar - Saturday 23 Mar

Ongoing unsettled conditions are set to be in place on Thursday with a mixture of drier weather followed by more cloud and rain from the west. Rain is likely to be heavy at times, particularly in the northwest. Brighter, showery conditions are likely to spread across northern and central areas through Friday, accompanied by stronger winds, perhaps gales in the north. Temperatures are likely to fluctuate around normal but overnight frosts are still likely. There are signals for the Atlantic-driven unsettled theme to continue through the following week. Here we are likely to see further spells of wind and rain, followed by drier, more showery periods. Towards the end of the outlook there may be a tendency for the unsettled conditions to be more confined to northern areas.

Sunday 24 Mar - Sunday 7 Apr

At the start of the extended outlook unsettled weather will likely become more confined to the north and northwest of the UK, with a greater chance of drier, brighter weather across southern and southeastern areas. These more settled conditions may extend across the UK through late March and early April. Temperatures through this period are likely to begin cooler, but trending towards normal or above normal, giving noticeably warmer days, though some overnight frosts remain possible. More changeable spells are likely to be short lived, but there is no confidence as to any timings or detail.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast