Tomasz’s biceps were indeed ridiculous on Countryfile and it certainly became exceptonally mild in my living room for the 3 minutes he was on the TV. He knows what he’s doing - absolutely shameless. ;-) 

On a more serious note - the BBC seemed to suggest an exceptionally mild or warm spell is on the way towards next weekend - 18C or higher a strong possibility with the chance of records being broken. 

Bring it on. 

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UK weather: February set to remain mild with 'above average temperatures'

Britain can expect another week of above-average weather for February after a mild beginning to the month, according to the Met Office. It comes after the unseasonably mild weather resulted in the warmest Valentine's Day in more than 20 years, meaning the UK was hotter than Spain. On Friday, a reading of 17.5C (63.5F) in Rhyl, northeast Wales, was recorded as the highest so far this month and the fourth warmest February temperature since 2008

By Friday, it will feel more like spring, with very mild air spreading in from the south and temperatures rising to 14C (57.2F) to 15C (59C) in the South East and South West, with a maximum temperature of 17C (62.6F). This year's February average is 9.8C (49.64F) so far, higher than the usual average of 8.2C (46.76F)

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-weather-february-set-to-remain-mild-with-above-average-temperatures-11640723

 

Nope. I'm just worried that as a forum we are still reading these forecasts and giving them some sort of credibility post 7-10 days. 

Yep, I’m with you on this one.😎

Spring was in the air across Western Europe yesterday

Rewind 12 months to 2018

Met office

UK Outlook for Saturday 23 Feb 2019 to Monday 4 Mar 2019:

The weekend will be largely fine and very mild with sunshine for many, although northwest Scotland could be cloudier at times with rain and strong winds. The southeast may see some early mist and fog, but also the best of the sunshine. The largely dry, sunny and mild conditions are likely to continue until the end of February, although rain and strong winds will affect the northwest at times. Temperatures may gradually become closer to normal. Any spells of rain will tend to weaken as they move southeast, just bringing cloudier skies. Overnight frosts are possible with mist and fog patches too. By early March we are more likely to see Atlantic fronts crossing the whole of the UK bringing stronger winds and rain at times.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Mar 2019 to Tuesday 19 Mar 2019:

By early March there are signals for Atlantic fronts to cross the whole of the UK, bringing a mixture of wet and windy weather to many parts, but also intermittent drier spells. Snow remains possible over higher ground in the north. There are weaker signals for snow to lower levels elsewhere should a cold easterly develop; this remains a small possibility. However, milder conditions remain more likely, with occasional overnight frosts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office

UK Outlook for Sunday 24 Feb 2019 to Tuesday 5 Mar 2019:

Sunday and Monday will be largely fine and very mild with some sunshine, although northwest Scotland could be cloudier with rain and strong winds at times. The southeast may see some early mist and fog, but this will clear through the morning. The largely dry, sunny and mild conditions are likely to continue until the end of February, although rain and strong winds will affect the northwest at times. Temperatures may gradually become closer to normal. Any spells of rain will tend to weaken as they move southeast, just bringing cloudier skies. Overnight frosts are still possible with mist and fog patches too. By early March we are more likely to see Atlantic fronts crossing the whole of the UK bringing stronger winds and rain at times.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 6 Mar 2019 to Wednesday 20 Mar 2019:

Into early March there are signals for Atlantic fronts to cross the whole of the UK, bringing a mixture of wet and windy weather to many parts, but also intermittent drier spells. Snow remains possible over higher ground in the north. There are weaker signals for snow to lower levels elsewhere should a cold easterly develop; this remains a small possibility. However, milder conditions remain more likely, with occasional overnight frosts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Warming up this week

Despite some recent media reports warning of cold weather ahead for the UK, temperatures will climb into the mid to high teens by the end of this week, says the Met Office. A large area of high pressure centred over continental Europe will extend across the UK this week, bringing increasingly settled conditions with dry and sunny weather for many as we head towards the weekend. 

This in combination with milder, southerly winds means temperatures will gradually rise day by day to around 15 to 18 °C for parts of the country on Friday and Saturday. Met Office Chief Meteorologist, Steve Willington, said: “By the weekend we could see temperatures almost 10 degrees higher than what we might normally expect at this time of year, so there will certainly be a spring-like feel in the air across the country. 

Looking beyond next week, Deputy Chief Meteorologist, Chris Tubbs, said: “Although temperatures next week may not be as high as what we’re expecting this weekend, it looks like temperatures will stay on the mild side for the rest of February.”

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2019/february-warmer

Remaining warm and dry into next week

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/47298713 

With Adian McGiven and Alex Deakin: - It's warming up!

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@ 23:30 - Very interesting question and Alex's answer is really informative regarding snow and why last year's beast from the east was easier to predict snow than the snow a few weeks ago for the south and south west.

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Met office

Monday 25 Feb - Wednesday 6 Mar

Monday and Tuesday will be largely fine and mild with some sunshine, although northwest Scotland could be cloudier with rain and strong winds at times. England and Wales will see some early mist and fog, but this will clear many places through the morning. The largely dry, sunny and mild conditions are likely to continue until the end of February, although rain and strong winds will affect the northwest at times. Temperatures may gradually become closer to normal. Any spells of rain will tend to weaken as they move southeast, just bringing cloudier skies. Overnight frosts are still possible with mist and fog patches too. By early March we are more likely to see Atlantic fronts crossing the whole of the UK bringing stronger winds and rain at times.

Thursday 7 Mar - Thursday 21 Mar

Into early March there are signals for Atlantic fronts to cross the whole of the UK, bringing a mixture of wet and windy weather to many parts, but also intermittent drier spells. Snow remains possible over higher ground in the north, but is unlikely elsewhere. Milder conditions remain more likely, perhaps with occasional colder spells which could bring overnight frosts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

After 9 weeks of persistence I see the hint of an easterly has finally been dropped from the 16 to 30 day.

 

 

 

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After 9 weeks of persistence I see the hint of an easterly has finally been dropped from the 16 to 30 day.

 

Yes as Gandalf alluded to in the model thread it looks more like a straightforward change to a more typical pattern as we enter into March - average conditions with more rainfall in the mix.

 

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After 9 weeks of persistence I see the hint of an easterly has finally been dropped from the 16 to 30 day.

 

Excellent news...I will get the snow shovels and sledge out....with our met office...expect the opposite!  

 

 

For those who haven't seen - the Met Office 10 day forecast has been issued:

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BBC weather for the week ahead: - Even Ben Rich says that it's 'down to winter holding on across N. America!'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/47310965 

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You have to laugh at the Met office home page today. They appear to accuse the media of a hyperbole ‘cold outbreak’ this month... the very thing they were forecasting until yesterday since Christmas 🤣🤣🤣🤣

Met office

Tuesday 26 Feb - Thursday 7 Mar

Tuesday and Wednesday will be largely fine and mild with some sunshine, although northwest Scotland could be cloudier with rain and strong winds at times. England and Wales will see some early mist and fog, but this will clear many places through the morning. The largely dry, sunny and mild conditions are likely to continue until the end of February, although rain and strong winds will affect the northwest at times. Temperatures may gradually become closer to normal. Any spells of rain will tend to weaken as they move southeast, just bringing cloudier skies. Overnight frosts are still possible with mist and fog patches too. By early March we are more likely to see Atlantic fronts crossing the whole of the UK bringing stronger winds and rain at times.

Friday 8 Mar - Friday 22 Mar

There are signals for Atlantic fronts to cross the whole of the UK, bringing a mixture of wet and windy weather to many parts, but also intermittent drier spells. Snow remains possible over higher ground in the north, but is unlikely elsewhere. Milder conditions remain more likely, perhaps with occasional colder spells which could bring overnight frosts. The best chance of fine and dry weather with some sunshine will be in the south and east.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Start of March

Change of weather type
Cooler with chance of rain

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/47326311

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Mild end to the month


• Wetter and windier start to March


• Temperatures falling back

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers*  https://weathertrending.com/2019/02/22/john-hammond-month-ahead-what-goes-around/

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