Some encouraging signs of cold trying to hang on (from an easterly direction) in the GEFS short ensembles.

Could you send me the link as to how you get access to about ensemble chart as the wetterzentrale has stopped updating it's ensemble charts since Wednesday.

---

ECM at T+120 still looking broadly consistent; hard to see a sustained easterly from here

 

That's what I don't get - why it's still showing LP around Iceland and Greenland and HP to our south west when it should be the other way round?

Could all change but YET again the cold air with it's snowy low pressure systems go around our High and down into the Alps and central and southern Europe - just where they don't need more snow!!

---

ECM says game over

---

 

Could you send me the link as to how you get access to about ensemble chart as the wetterzentrale has stopped updating it's ensemble charts since Wednesday.

Go to Meteociel, select GEFS Ensemble from the options at the top and then select 'Diagrammes' - then select your location.

---

ECM getting consistent now t144 dreadful if you're a coldie

 

Our actual experience tells a different story. The verification stats are for the large scale hemispheric patterns, whereas we are only worried about our small group of islands and when sustained cold is forecast for the the UK a week ahead, it proves incorrect far more often than not. After all, the models only have to be 500 miles out and we get completely opposite weather. 

Maybe it’s because our group of islands is just that and our weather has so many influences.  It’s not like we’re a great land mass where the weather has more regular patterns.  Perhaps it will never be possible to forecast long range with so many variables and maybe a variety of scenarios is all we’ll ever get.  

Meanwhile, the rollercoaster model watching is so much more interesting than our current weather!  

---

The ECM 12z op run maintains the milder interlude in the middle of the run. Will it be like the others and bring the cold back in again later in the run?

---

Sometimes when you have differences in models the outcome often ends up somewhere in the middle.

What a let down

---

I’m looking forward to the rest of this run

I hasten to add not because it is definitely going to be cold, it just looks interesting!

---

What a let down

Can only be a let down if you get drawn in to the dream charts. I never bought it sadly. We need these charts to show winter no more than 72 hours away and even then they can backtrack. It's disappointing yes, but really no surprise. As Quantum said earlier, and I paraphrase, but basically always back the mildest charts because they will usually be correct.

---

I’m looking forward to the rest of this run

I hasten to add not because it is definitely going to be cold, it just looks interesting!

High pressure trying to build more strongly over Greenland squeezing LP's further south and bringing in a northerly! seems like the pressure is much higher than in the 00z run of ECM. But this is a poor update still.

---

I’m looking forward to the rest of this run

I hasten to add not because it is definitely going to be cold, it just looks interesting!

+192 - our northerly I anticipated:

---

 

I've suggested this before, but what if the model output was only released out to 5 days? I think this would make a lot of sense, as anything after can only be truly interpreted by professional meteorologists. True, they are a lot of fun to look at, but also mentally draining during peak winter season. We often await the next run before the current one is even finished! Maybe sometimes, less is more. Model output, pretty much like anything else in modern society, has become product that is easily disposed of. Anyone remember yesterday's 06z run? Most probably not, but I guarantee that most of us were awaiting with bated breath before it rolled out! 

What! Why would you deny us all the harmless entertainment of watching the model runs unfold? How would we pass the time on these dark winter evenings? 🙂 (Yes, I've noted your smiley.) 

---

 

+192 - our northerly I anticipated:

 

Looks like a toppler to me I'd expect to see a west to northwesterly flow developing again at t216

Don't worry folks JMA has this nailed. 

 

 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=24&mode=1&nh=0&archive=0

 

---

Have to say , I'm ok with this pattern change 

Could be  good end to the month 

---

 

Could you send me the link as to how you get access to about ensemble chart as the wetterzentrale has stopped updating it's ensemble charts since Wednesday.

The one I use is still being updated. It's

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_-251_ens.png

That's for 2W (the minus sign indicates a longitude that's west of the Meridian), 51N, so roughly corresponds to the location of Saisbury, but I assume that you could substitute any other whole number of degrees. I can't remember why I'm using those co-ordinates, as they are for a point well to the west of where I live.

---

JMA is the new ICON if anyone was wondering 

---

If verified to this point , the following days could be very interesting - trouble is this is 5 days into FI

---