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ALthough NO Easterly - it does end more interesting at 240 with another potent northerly if you could run on another day or two on this 12z run:
Just shame it only goes to 240 but if it can't get the pattern/set up right at 168 then i guess 240 will do for now in terms of model watching of the ECM!
ECM says game over
For the easterly next week? Yes, quite likely. For cold generally? Not a chance.
If verified to this point , the following days could be very interesting - trouble is this is 5 days into FI
Yes, there are possibilities there. But your sig about anything beyond T+120 being just for fun has seemed more apposite than ever over the last couple of days. As you say, T+240 is 5 days into FI at present.
ECM gives a milder interlude then more jam tomorrow in FI
Cold, less cold interlude and colder again? Where have I seen that before?
Yes annoying isn't it.
I'd so love for the JMA to verify though
You mean cold weather in the reliable timeframe and then mild then cold in FI.
I love how that low heading towards Scotland towards the end of the run actually deflects the most potent flow out towards the Atlantic, where it is of no use to anyone.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=3&time=240&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24
Given the upper atmospheric conditions it knows where it wants to get but because of these pulses in the jet stream it keeps being delayed. Hopefully it can get there whilst it is still mid winter - before the last 2 weeks February. Still optimistic although looks like next week will be more mobile than it looked 36 hours ago.
I find it interesting that, although the GFS ensemble mean 850 mb temperatures is higher for about days 6-10 than it was a day or two ago, it's hardly changed (st least for southern England) in the longer term. It's still around -5C.
I've noticed such an obsession with Easterly winds over seeing snow , snow is my priority every winter regardless of which point of the compass it comes from
Don't worry folks JMA has this nailed. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=24&mode=1&nh=0&archive=0
Don't worry folks JMA has this nailed.
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=24&mode=1&nh=0&archive=0
I'll raise you NAVGEM!!
Yes, it's odd how the mood was changed by the sudden signs of an easterly. It wasn't many days ago that we were looking at cold zonality and the chance of Arctic incursions and that was good enough.
ECM, albeit in deep FI, beings us back full circle with very cold uppers on a strong NNW flow.
i suspect it’s (in rail terms) the type of snow! ...a wet slushy mix at 2-3 degrees that lasts 3 hours and you get soaked walking in it, is very different to a sub zero fest of powdery snow, that brushes off you and lasts for a few days is the number one choice for most of us in the south at least.
The S and SE are by some distance the most represented regions on TWO and it's only natural that they'd look for set-ups that are most favourable to them.
It does get frustrating, though, when you enter the MO thread and are greeted with so much wailing and gnashing of teeth that you think we'll all be in double-digit temps in a couple of days, but when you check the charts you realise it's not really particularly worse overall for much of the UK, despite the disappearance of the suggested easterly.
If there was a chart that summarised the situation at day 5 it would have to be this, the ECM mean. Take your pick http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMAVGEU12_120_1.png
Yes, the ECM mean charts suggest that there's now pretty good agreement for the next week or so, and even out at day 10 it looks as though the operational solution is pretty highly favoured. One encouraging feature is that that High to our SW is moving further to the west on the last few days of the mean charts.
hmm. A cold col, after all.