Yes a few easterly runs in there but the majority going zonal with double figure temps.

I certainly don't see the majority in double temps, the LP's are sinking so far South 

 

I certainly don't see the majority in double temps, the LP's are sinking so far South 

Here you go Marcus, the t2m ensemble data for London on the 12z set.

Generally the 12z suite is better than the previous one in terms of cold. This is the t850hPa set for my location. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3 

Could have been a lot worse.  Yes, the 12z GEFS favours Atlantic based cold as opposed to a very cold easterly incursion but the split is clear to see and there might be life in the old dog yet!  Let's see what the ECM brings!!

 

Here you go Marcus, the t2m ensemble data for London on the 12z set.

 

Generally the 12z suite is better than the previous one in terms of cold. This is the t850hPa set for my location. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3 

Thank you 

 

Thank you 

A stunning number of perturbations showing snow for London if it's a zonal pattern.

like many on here very disappointed by present model output considering the output we were enjoying up until the ecm 12z yesterday.  For me I think the change that we are seeing in the models today and the struggle they are having is all down to the down welling of -u winds into the troposphere. Originally they were expected to hit the trop around the 22nd of the month but the latest cross sectional view which I hope to show in this post shows them not downwelling  until the 29th and then in a much weaker state.

 This is just a projection and is therefore open to change. I would not rule out rule out the easterly just yet.

I like the positivity but think we are fighting a losing battle regarding the easterly. I'd put the chances of an ECM flip back at about 5%.

I like the positivity but think we are fighting a losing battle regarding the easterly. I'd put the chances of an ECM flip back at about 5%.

 

 

 

Pantomine is a pretty apt word to describe the current model schenanigans, IMO.

Seen it all before though at this time of year on many occasions, last February being the most recent instance of mass model uncertainty in the semi-reliable timeframe.

Agreed, but it appears that there has been no progress in NWP reliability over the last decade or more. When it comes to forecasting synoptics which differ from the regular pattern more than four or five days ahead, the models are as inconsistent and unreliable as they have always been, regardless of the computing power and sophisticated algorithms thrown at the problem.. 

 

Agreed, but it appears that there has been no progress in NWP reliability over the last decade or more. When it comes to forecasting synoptics which differ from the regular pattern more than four or five days ahead, the models are as inconsistent and unreliable as they have always been, regardless of the computing power and sophisticated algorithms thrown at the problem.. 

The verification statistics tell a different story.

 

The verification statistics tell a different story.

Our actual experience tells a different story. The verification stats are for the large scale hemispheric patterns, whereas we are only worried about our small group of islands and when sustained cold is forecast for the the UK a week ahead, it proves incorrect far more often than not. After all, the models only have to be 500 miles out and we get completely opposite weather. 

I have a funny feeling ecm is going to pull out a corker for coldies in the next hour or so...

Well, it does look better at 96h wedge of heights trying to join the arctic high.

 

A stunning number of perturbations showing snow for London if it's a zonal pattern.

....with double figure temps 😎

 

Agreed, but it appears that there has been no progress in NWP reliability over the last decade or more. When it comes to forecasting synoptics which differ from the regular pattern more than four or five days ahead, the models are as inconsistent and unreliable as they have always been, regardless of the computing power and sophisticated algorithms thrown at the problem.. 

I've suggested this before, but what if the model output was only released out to 5 days? I think this would make a lot of sense, as anything after can only be truly interpreted by professional meteorologists. True, they are a lot of fun to look at, but also mentally draining during peak winter season. We often await the next run before the current one is even finished! Maybe sometimes, less is more. Model output, pretty much like anything else in modern society, has become product that is easily disposed of. Anyone remember yesterday's 06z run? Most probably not, but I guarantee that most of us were awaiting with bated breath before it rolled out! 

 

 

....with double figure temps 😎

 That must be the extremely unusual phenomenon of tropical thunder snow 

Here’s the 96hr ECM chart. Not too different to this morning and could go any way from this point. 

ECM at T+120 still looking broadly consistent; hard to see a sustained easterly from here