Thank you 

A stunning number of perturbations showing snow for London if it's a zonal pattern.

I’ll awaiting the ECM with interest

like many on here very disappointed by present model output considering the output we were enjoying up until the ecm 12z yesterday.  For me I think the change that we are seeing in the models today and the struggle they are having is all down to the down welling of -u winds into the troposphere. Originally they were expected to hit the trop around the 22nd of the month but the latest cross sectional view which I hope to show in this post shows them not downwelling  until the 29th and then in a much weaker state.

 This is just a projection and is therefore open to change. I would not rule out rule out the easterly just yet.

I like the positivity but think we are fighting a losing battle regarding the easterly. I'd put the chances of an ECM flip back at about 5%.

Agreed, but it appears that there has been no progress in NWP reliability over the last decade or more. When it comes to forecasting synoptics which differ from the regular pattern more than four or five days ahead, the models are as inconsistent and unreliable as they have always been, regardless of the computing power and sophisticated algorithms thrown at the problem.. 

The verification statistics tell a different story.

Our actual experience tells a different story. The verification stats are for the large scale hemispheric patterns, whereas we are only worried about our small group of islands and when sustained cold is forecast for the the UK a week ahead, it proves incorrect far more often than not. After all, the models only have to be 500 miles out and we get completely opposite weather. 

Well, it does look better at 96h wedge of heights trying to join the arctic high.

....with double figure temps 😎

I've suggested this before, but what if the model output was only released out to 5 days? I think this would make a lot of sense, as anything after can only be truly interpreted by professional meteorologists. True, they are a lot of fun to look at, but also mentally draining during peak winter season. We often await the next run before the current one is even finished! Maybe sometimes, less is more. Model output, pretty much like anything else in modern society, has become product that is easily disposed of. Anyone remember yesterday's 06z run? Most probably not, but I guarantee that most of us were awaiting with bated breath before it rolled out! 

 That must be the extremely unusual phenomenon of tropical thunder snow 

Here’s the 96hr ECM chart. Not too different to this morning and could go any way from this point. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=120&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

🤢🤢

ECM at T+120 still looking broadly consistent; hard to see a sustained easterly from here

Could you send me the link as to how you get access to about ensemble chart as the wetterzentrale has stopped updating it's ensemble charts since Wednesday.

That's what I don't get - why it's still showing LP around Iceland and Greenland and HP to our south west when it should be the other way round?

Could all change but YET again the cold air with it's snowy low pressure systems go around our High and down into the Alps and central and southern Europe - just where they don't need more snow!!

Go to Meteociel, select GEFS Ensemble from the options at the top and then select 'Diagrammes' - then select your location.

ECM getting consistent now t144 dreadful if you're a coldie

Meanwhile, the rollercoaster model watching is so much more interesting than our current weather!  

What a let down

I’m looking forward to the rest of this run

I hasten to add not because it is definitely going to be cold, it just looks interesting!