High pressure trying to build more strongly over Greenland squeezing LP's further south and bringing in a northerly! seems like the pressure is much higher than in the 00z run of ECM. But this is a poor update still.

+192 - our northerly I anticipated:

What! Why would you deny us all the harmless entertainment of watching the model runs unfold? How would we pass the time on these dark winter evenings? 🙂 (Yes, I've noted your smiley.) 

Looks like a toppler to me I'd expect to see a west to northwesterly flow developing again at t216

Don't worry folks JMA has this nailed. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=24&mode=1&nh=0&archive=0

Have to say , I'm ok with this pattern change 

Could be  good end to the month 

The one I use is still being updated. It's

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_-251_ens.png

That's for 2W (the minus sign indicates a longitude that's west of the Meridian), 51N, so roughly corresponds to the location of Saisbury, but I assume that you could substitute any other whole number of degrees. I can't remember why I'm using those co-ordinates, as they are for a point well to the west of where I live.

JMA is the new ICON if anyone was wondering 

If verified to this point , the following days could be very interesting - trouble is this is 5 days into FI

ALthough NO Easterly - it does end more interesting at 240 with another potent northerly if you could run on another day or two on this 12z run:

Just shame it only goes to 240 but if it can't get the pattern/set up right at 168 then i guess 240 will do for now in terms of model watching of the ECM!

For the easterly next week? Yes, quite likely. For cold generally? Not a chance.

Yes, there are possibilities there. But your sig about anything beyond T+120 being just for fun has seemed more apposite than ever over the last couple of days. As you say, T+240 is 5 days into FI at present.

Cold, less cold interlude and colder again? Where have I seen that before?

Yes annoying isn't it.

I'd so love for the JMA to verify though 

You mean cold weather in the reliable timeframe and then mild then cold in FI.

Truly anything is on the table from mild westerlies to frigid easterlies and anything in between. Boring it certainly isn’t!

I love how that low heading towards Scotland towards the end of the run actually deflects the most potent flow out towards the Atlantic, where it is of no use to anyone.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=3&time=240&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24

I find it interesting that, although the GFS ensemble mean 850 mb temperatures is higher for about days 6-10 than it was a day or two ago, it's hardly changed (st least for southern England) in the longer term. It's still around -5C.

I've noticed such an obsession with Easterly winds over seeing snow , snow is my priority every winter regardless of which point of the compass it comes from

I'll raise you NAVGEM!!

Yes, it's odd how the mood was changed by the sudden signs of an easterly.  It wasn't many days ago that we were looking at cold zonality and the chance of Arctic incursions and that was good enough.

ECM, albeit in deep FI, beings us back full circle with very cold uppers on a strong NNW flow.

i suspect it’s (in rail terms) the type of snow! ...a wet slushy mix at 2-3 degrees that lasts 3 hours and you get soaked walking in it, is very different to a sub zero fest of powdery snow, that brushes off you and lasts for a few days is the number one choice for most of us in the south at least.