Our actual experience tells a different story. The verification stats are for the large scale hemispheric patterns, whereas we are only worried about our small group of islands and when sustained cold is forecast for the the UK a week ahead, it proves incorrect far more often than not. After all, the models only have to be 500 miles out and we get completely opposite weather.
Maybe it’s because our group of islands is just that and our weather has so many influences. It’s not like we’re a great land mass where the weather has more regular patterns. Perhaps it will never be possible to forecast long range with so many variables and maybe a variety of scenarios is all we’ll ever get.
Meanwhile, the rollercoaster model watching is so much more interesting than our current weather!
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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