This place is very fickle at the best of times, but you can understand the frustration for coldies.
I’ll give it til the end of Jan- if the Carlsberg output isn’t within fair grasp by then, I really will be looking forward to spring as this nonsense has gone on long enough. By that I mean the model output

Don't worry, Michael Gove assures us winter is on the way, I saw it on the front of the Standard last night.

Also, check out the latest Met Office long-ranger before getting too despondent. 

GEFS now out for the 06Z and have trended a fair bit colder in the mid term for London, Jan 22-27, with the colder cluster predominating now. Control run is fairly frigid.

Have they? The mean for the range you have quoted rises from -5C to -2C and the main colder cluster just below the mean from -6C to -4C. 

 

It's the psychology of the op runs. If, say, the GFS had churned out P19 as the operational this morning then the mood would be totally different. Until the ensemble picks one route in the medium term and sticks with it then there is still plenty of interest even in one week's time. This is a 168hr chart, for instance:

Bang on 

In today's 06Z GFS ensemble, for the period 23rd-26th there's a range of over 15C between the 850 mb temperature of the coldest and the mildest members! The 23rd is only a week away, so surely what's forecast must settle down soon? If there's such a wide range of solutions in the medium term, then at the moment trying to determine what's likely to happen at 10 days and beyond seems like a waste of time. 

I have a hunch we’ll start seeing bonkers cold output for the first week of Feb. Should start showing in the next few days and put this mess of a January to bed.

My hunch is we'll continue to see bonkers cold output at day 10+ until late March. 

 

Have they? The mean for the range you have quoted rises from -5C to -2C and the main colder cluster just below the mean from -6C to -4C. 

I think you're looking at them backwards. The 0Z was the top chart, the 6Z was the bottom one. The means are as follows, from Jan 22 to Jan 27, midnight each day (to nearest whole degree). 

0Z ... 6Z

-3 .... -4

-3 .... -3

-2 .... -3

-2 .... -2

-1 .... -2

-1 .... -4

 

 

My hunch is we'll continue to see bonkers cold output at day 10+ until late March. 

As things stand this winter is running at 2c above the LTA, which categorises it as being on track to be one of the mildest ever.  The model output needs to deliver some sutained cold to change that story, we are today half way through meteorological winter, and what a mild one it has been so far.

GFS 06z says were back on for marginal cold spell if snow is what you are after: although it a slight upgrade from the 00z this morning:

 

As things stand this winter is running at 2c above the LTA, which categorises it as being on track to be one of the mildest ever.  The model output needs to deliver some sutained cold to change that story, we are today half way through meteorological winter, and what a mild one it has been so far.

2 over par? We'd probably be 2 under if the models had been on the money. It's a fascinating winter IMO. Nature says it's crazily mild but the machines keep telling us it's going to be cold.

Just for fun:

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/3696/anim_cvg6.gif

 It's a fascinating winter IMO. Nature says it's crazily mild but the machines keep telling us it's going to be cold.

Always the way - if the UK existed 240 hours into the future (in NWP terms) we'd have the climate of Newfoundland 

 

2 over par? We'd probably be 2 under if the models had been on the money. It's a fascinating winter IMO. Nature says it's crazily mild but the machines keep telling us it's going to be cold.

All that proves is never trust a machine. Which is why AI isn't going to be putting us all out of a job anytime soon, despite the sensationalist claims and scare stories in the tabloid end of the media.

Does anyone have a link to the ECM weekly temperature anomaly maps (EC46 I think?)

The last ones I saw were very cold, but they were starting on about January 9 as I recall, so presumably have updated by now./ I didn't save the link and can't find the post now.

Edit - don't worry, found the page. http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/monthly-forecast/

Initialised a couple of days ago now, but still showing a solid cold signal, with most of the UK 2-3C below average through to February.

Having said that I'm sure they showed the same thing for last week last time round!

Also note the dry and cold anomalies over Norway, suggesting a Scandi block setup.

Does anyone have a link to the ECM weekly temperature anomaly maps (EC46 I think?)

The last ones I saw were very cold, but they were starting on about January 9 as I recall, so presumably have updated by now./ I didn't save the link and can't find the post now.

Halfway down this page under 'Líkan: ec-ens'

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/spakort/

Does anyone have a link to the ECM weekly temperature anomaly maps (EC46 I think?)

The last ones I saw were very cold, but they were starting on about January 9 as I recall, so presumably have updated by now./ I didn't save the link and can't find the post now.

 

Edit - don't worry, found the page. http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/monthly-forecast/

 

Initialised a couple of days ago now, but still showing a solid cold signal, with most of the UK 2-3C below average through to February.

Having said that I'm sure they showed the same thing for last week last time round!

 

Also note the dry and cold anomalies over Norway, suggesting a Scandi block setup.

Week 3 - looks so blocked and cold: - This continues into week 4 - You can see where the HP/block is!?

Many parts of the COuntry or all of country is going down between 2 and 3c below average from 28th Jan.

 

2 over par? We'd probably be 2 under if the models had been on the money. It's a fascinating winter IMO. Nature says it's crazily mild but the machines keep telling us it's going to be cold.

I suspect the weather will catch up with machine expectations sometime between June and August. 

I don't know what this means....    0Z was awful, 6Z was mediocre?

Can anyone see my chart?

Can anyone see my chart?

Here.

Click for full size: https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7900/32889217418_59e363130d_o.png

Basically the 0Z was a big departure from recent runs and the 6Z goes back to more or less where they were before, barring a few better ones.

 

Here.

 

Click for full size: https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7900/32889217418_59e363130d_o.png

 

Basically the 0Z was a big departure from recent runs and the 6Z goes back to more or less where they were before, barring a few better ones.

 

Odd it doesn't appear on my post.  Thank you.

And yes, the norm appears to be about 60 or just above for Brighton, With the odd spike and trough.