GFS 06z at 186 - Scandinavia High building, low pressure in the Med, 850s still cold over UK.

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ECM is the model of the day we can't instinctively understand why it's flipped so much after quite a lot of consistency and it was the ECM I had my money on:

Things may change of course but it's now past mid January.

12z run

 

00z run (most recent)

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Quite a big surprise actually because i thought the GFS, Para etc will follow last nights ECM but now it's flipped back to a mild set up i don't know what else to say? - Other that upgrades it looks like a massive downgrades - Must be a nightmare for forecasters. The Met Office last night or yesterday evening were forecasting a 25 % chance of an easterly and i think with Matt Taylor they show up a chart which looked similar to the ECM's 12z chart. Now it looks like they have to re-forecast and this is not FI 384 it was for 240hrs. Quite upsetting and extremely frustrating given that we were seeing signs of prolonged cold spell developing in many ensembles in line with ECM - but now ECM has back off we don't know where we stand!? Still time to go but time is running out soon.

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ECM ENS are all over the place at +240 Easterlies, Northerlies, More mobile Westerly types, some high pressure dominated ones. Further out the spread only widens.

Yes more spread but overall there is not a great deal of change from last night: the mean for London 850s is flat around the -5C mark, albeit now with a slight hump to -3.5C around Jan 25/26. In the long term a slight cooling trend (and less spread, strangely).

 

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/temperatur850

 

The 2m temperature plot for London is barely changed, with the mean high being around 3C for the latter half of the run, and the snow depth charts are also very similar, with a mean depth of 2cm and highest being around 11cm.

 

There hasn't been any major flip in the ECM ensembles overnight.

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I’ve been glued to model watching for many weeks now and over the last few days, to my mind, GFS FZ3 has been showing a snow event for a week Tuesday 22nd ...

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2019011306/gfs-2-222.png?6

GFS still showing snow for next Tuesday - some consistency there

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Well, the 6z GFS is better than the 0z GFS for coldies. So here is a question - why are the 0z runs consistently flatter and worse (for UK cold) than the 6z and 12z runs? There is definitely a pattern here, with the 0z flattening the Atlantic picture and moving everything east, whilst the 6z corrects that in our favour and moves everything further west with a more amplified pattern across the Atlantic.

 

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GFS 06z para going for pretty widespread snow by this weekend

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2019011606/gfs-16-72.png?6 

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some people too quick again in thinking the overnight runs were correct

.For some reason the overnight runs seem to be always the worst of the day,watch for further  improvements  throughout the day again.

 

GFS 06z para going for pretty widespread snow by this weekend

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2019011606/gfs-16-72.png?6

Likewise for my location the ECM ensembles give a decent chance of at least a dusting of snow this weekend. 

 

https://weather.us/forecast/2639577-reading/ensemble/euro/snow

 

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and a little Channel Low spinning up perhaps ...

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2019011606/gfs-0-78.png?6 

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I rteally don't know what to say...- we have the blues and purples just where we don't want them -i.e over Iceland and Greenland and N. Pole:

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Well, the 6z GFS is better than the 0z GFS for coldies. So here is a question - why are the 0z runs consistently flatter and worse (for UK cold) than the 6z and 12z runs? There is definitely a pattern here, with the 0z flattening the Atlantic picture and moving everything east, whilst the 6z corrects that in our favour and moves everything further west with a more amplified pattern across the Atlantic.

 

I once read that certain data was only available in a freshly updated form at 0Z and 12Z, and that therefore those GFS runs were more to be relied on than the 06Z and 18Z. But whether or not that was correct then or is still correct now, it wouldn't explain why the 0Z should be "flatter" than the 12Z.

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I rteally don't know what to say...- we have the blues and purples just where we don't want them -i.e over Iceland and Greenland and N. Pole:

And yet going forward from here -  we have a period of predominantly below average temperatures with some more widespread and potentially sharp frosts - certainly a change from what we've experienced for most of the first half of winter - exactly what has been flagged up for some time. The fact that it looks  - for most of the foreseeable future as Business as Usual winter weather is what seems to be bothering quite a few. There never has been a consistent signal for severe or prolonged wintry weather on any output. 

 

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I rteally don't know what to say...- we have the blues and purples just where we don't want them -i.e over Iceland and Greenland and N. Pole:

Gfs has been consistently poor, so you shouldn’t be overly surprised.

as for ECM, this time yesterday I warned of the probably of the easterly being phantom. How we end up here really is no suprise either:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

 

 

 

And yet going forward from here -  we have a period of predominantly below average temperatures with some more widespread and potentially sharp frosts - certainly a change from what we've experienced for most of the first half of winter - exactly what has been flagged up for some time. The fact that it looks  - for most of the foreseeable future as Business as Usual winter weather is what seems to be bothering quite a few. There never has been a consistent signal for severe or prolonged wintry weather on any output. 

 

Agreed, and even in the odd few op runs and GEFS perturbations which did project a severe wintry spell, it was always in deep FI and so pure conjecture.   

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I rteally don't know what to say...- we have the blues and purples just where we don't want them -i.e over Iceland and Greenland and N. Pole:

Yes , it's annoying isn't it that the North Pole is always so cold in winter 

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Yes the form horse has always been a cooling trend with colder and less cold interludes. I don't think that has changed regardless of the specifics. The first cold shot today has been remarkably well modelled unlike many of the coming features/synoptics.

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With regard to the 4 cycles of the GFS and their current verification (most accurate to least):

At 5 days:

12z, 18z, 00z, 06z

At 8 days:

00z, 18z, 12z, 06z

At 10 days:

12z, 18z, 00z, 06z

 

 

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Gfs has been consistently poor, so you shouldn’t be overly surprised.

as for ECM, this time yesterday I warned of the probably of the easterly being phantom. How we end up here really is no suprise either:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

 

 

I thought - and maybe many others that the ECM's 00 and 12z last night saved the GFS's bacon! I put so much faith into the ECM because the GFS has been so poor this winter!

But this morning the ECM FROM 192 Has backed away from anything cold or and easterly and has gone along with the GFS and after so much flip floppings followed by downgrades after yesterday evenings ECM i thought there can only be upgrades!!? Would you not agree?

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With regard to the 4 cycles of the GFS and their current verification (most accurate to least):

At 5 days:

12z, 18z, 00z, 06z

At 8 days:

00z, 18z, 12z, 06z

At 10 days:

12z, 18z, 00z, 06z

 

 

In other words, no real pattern except that the 06Z seems to be least reliable.

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