I guess that's the Daily Express's "snow bomb" 

I guess that's the Daily Express's "snow bomb" 

Knowing my lucky, a sleet bomb here. 

What I want to see now is tonight's 0Z GFS operational run consolidating what's happened in today's 12Z, rather than reversing it as seems to have been the case for the last two or three days. I think the same applies to the ECM, if not to the same extent.

GEFS mean at 156 says the slider is a go! 

Compare to the previous run GEFS mean at the same time here. Massive shift!

Temper your expectations, we've all been here before.

If the ECM is on board then tentative excitement may be warranted. If the ECM disagrees its probably right.

Temper your expectations, we've all been here before.

If the ECM is on board then tentative excitement may be warranted. If the ECM disagrees its probably right.

 

Looks like a pretty decisive flip in the near-term GEFS though. At T174 the London 850mb mean is now close to -7C versus -3C on the 6Z run.

There are some absolute monsters in the perturbations too. This by T192:

Looks like setting up for the first London -15C run of the winter

 

 

Looks like a pretty decisive flip in the near-term GEFS though. At T174 the London 850mb mean is now close to -7C versus -3C on the 6Z run.

 

There are some absolute monsters in the perturbations too. This by T192:

Possible medicane on that one!

GFS Parallel still being a party pooper though, not sliding the low nearly so cleanly.

Quite a change from the G(E)FS , there were decent runs in the GEFS this morning so its good to see they have been followed

Short London ensembles. Spot the difference from this morning's poor 00Z, on the left, to the 12Z:

Short London ensembles. Spot the difference from this morning's poor 00Z, on the left, to the 12Z:

 

Flippity Flop you don’t stop✋ 

Short London ensembles. Spot the difference from this morning's poor 00Z, on the left, to the 12Z:

 

Much tighter agreement from the 22nd.  And a colder outlook from then.  All good so far.

I guess that's the Daily Express's "snow bomb" 

It does take a big leap of faith to get from the T288 to that  at T324. It could but but at that distance the odds of it following that particular evolution must be quite low. All round a better situation in that op run but I'm waiting for the ensembles because we've been here as recently as yesterday.

Forget FI - in less than a weeks time we could see daytime maxes of 1 or 2c with sleet/snow flurries.

The 12z GEFS are riddled with these!

I'm sticking to fax charts....to much expectation past the realm of 120hrs at the minute....Alton towers has less rollercoaster rides then the model output past that timeframe....😕

Is it my imagination or has this rollercoaster ride been even bumpier than most? It was depression in here from some and now it's party time again. 

Full GEFS out now. Mean for London is back down to bouncing around the -5C line, slightly below in the mid section. Looks like the snowiest set yet, but TWO version not there just yet.

I think it is clear that despite all the wobbles in the charts lately, that colder weather is on the way. The question is though, will it be a joyous, seasonal and scenic sort of cold that makes one glad to be alive? or that sort of miserable, wet, penetrating sort cold that prompts us to mutter that we can't bloody wait for some Spring warmth? Time will tell I guess.