Hoping to see a greater propensity for hlb's and a -AO this afternoon although not sure what the gfs will churn out. I am optimistic however of perhaps a repeat performance from the ecm 12z run of yesterday.
I have noticed the charts showing the down welling -u winds have this pinned back to the 28th now and not as negative as previously shown. They were originally progged for the 22nd. Just like the AO and NAO I suppose they are related to model runs.

Hoping to see a greater propensity for hlb's and a -AO this afternoon although not sure what the gfs will churn out. I am optimistic however of perhaps a repeat performance from the ecm 12z run of yesterday.
I have noticed the charts showing the down welling -u winds have this pinned back to the 28th now and not as negative as previously shown. They were originally progged for the 22nd. Just like the AO and NAO I suppose they are related to model runs.

ICON has come out and it is

All is flat. Write off for cold spell 24 Jan time frame.

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I think you're looking at them backwards. The 0Z was the top chart, the 6Z was the bottom one. The means are as follows, from Jan 22 to Jan 27, midnight each day (to nearest whole degree). 

 

0Z ... 6Z

-3 .... -4

-3 .... -3

-2 .... -3

-2 .... -2

-1 .... -2

-1 .... -4

Nope. The entire post of yours that I quoted didn't mention 0z

"GEFS now out for the 06Z and have trended a fair bit colder in the mid term for London, Jan 22-27, with the colder cluster predominating now. Control run is fairly frigid."

Yes they are better than the 0z. I thought you meant the 06z was trending lower for the period quoted not compared to the 0z. 

-3

-5

-4

-2

-3

-4

Trending milder then a colder one at the end I would say, but in the scope of variability I would say remaining between -1 and -5C

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ICON has come out and it is

All is flat. Write off for cold spell 24 Jan time frame.

If ICON was showing cold would you consider it meant a cold spell was nailed on?  

 

ARPEGE giving a decent blob of snow for me still. And only 108hrs out. (There's also some light snow for me at 66hrs)

 

GFS also gradually ramping up Friday night snow for the south, run by run. Worth keeping an eye on...

 

Chilterns could see a dusting in two days' time if GFS has this right.

 

 

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Stunning UKMO 144h snowy slider the rollercoaster continues 

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Stunning UKMO 144h snowy slider the rollercoaster continues 

Latest GFS seems to be trending the slider on a more southerly track to my eyes

 

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Latest GFS seems to be trending the slider on a more southerly track to my eyes

 

 

Yes looks similar to the UKMO.  Good start to the 12s.

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http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2019011612/UW144-21.GIF?16-16 

Latest GFS Op at same time - http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2019011612/gfs-0-144.png?12

Not much point on looking any further down the line ... but I think I will anyway JFF :)

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Well, no idea why ICON has gone skiing off piste - fortunately UKMO and GFS at same timeframe are OK.

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This t+100 to T+144 period still being chewed over like an old bone by the models - until that storm trajectory is resolved the chaos will continue IMO.

The Met's update would indicate they are more confident if the UKMO/GFS 12z kind of evolution though, so we'll just let the 'coaster keep on going...

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Virtually the whole country with at least a dusting this time next week, according to the latest GFS.
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2019011612/gfs-16-162.png?12

 

And an easterly incoming by T168. Swings and roundabouts continue.

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GFS currently on track as the best of the winter so far. 

This at 171hrs is brilliant

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_171_1.png

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GFS currently on track as the best of the winter so far. 

This at 171hrs is brilliant

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_171_1.png

Not sure it will necessarily be the best of the winter, depends if the high can build to the NW rather than slowly sinking into Europe.

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you can't make this **** up. Brilliant GFS 

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you can't make this **** up. Brilliant GFS 

Well the signs were there on the 06Z GFS, with some pretty cold members in the 144-180 hour timeframe. I said this morning that I would expect the ensemble mean for that spell to flip to mild or cold soon. The op has gone cold on this one, so let's see if the rest of the pack follows yet.

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Not bad :)

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Belter of a GFS run. Probably the best so far (considering the short timescales)

Bank!

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Some cold nights in Scotland especially under that HP cell if this were to verify.

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Rinse and repeat?

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GFS 12z certainly not a run for the wrist slashers. This is why one run should never be taken in isolation. Now why do I worry the ECM will show something totally different 

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