Sensational output this morning. 

A UK anticyclone slowly migrates SE ushering in a hot and sultry SE’ly.

GEM is my favourite I think. 

---

If 75/76 were to happen again, the south and east in particular would be in serious trouble. I remember the stand pipes and water rationing of 1976. With significantly increased population since 1976 and higher temperatures, infrastructure would begin to collapse.

Not this year - there was reasonably good recharge of the aquifers last winter. The 76 drought was preceded by a dry winter.

But I agree for the future - water supply provision isn't keeping pace with population growth.

---

 

Not this year - there was reasonably good recharge of the aquifers last winter. The 76 drought was preceded by a dry winter.

But I agree for the future - water supply provision isn't keeping pace with population growth.

Indeed it isn't - and what is the biggest driver of population growth?

I remember 1976 very well and I dread to think how the UK would cope with a repeat of that today - our investment in reservoirs has not kept pace with population growth and the southern aquifers could not cope with a repeat of that exceptional period.

 

---

Sensational output this morning. 

A UK anticyclone slowly migrates SE ushering in a hot and sultry SE’ly.

GEM is my favourite I think. 

Hard to beat GEM. ECM is almost identically good. GFS is the least satisfying but still ok.

---

Sensational stuff from GFS 00z

Flaming June living up to its name

🌡

Yes Gavin - as good as seeing -10 temperatures nationwide in January. Pure weather porn. Here's to a long hot summer - glass of Pims anyone?

---

If such a strong trough manages to slide all the way down to the mediteranean in such an unusual season, we're up for some very extreme, dangerous weather in Greece.

 

Sensational stuff from GFS 00z

Flaming June living up to its name

🌡

Really looking forward to the 17's and 18's here 😣

---

Although this morning's midnight GFS output fell short of the duration of the previous runs, the Op was certainly on the cooler bank of the ENS river; the 06z is a bit discouraging by the second weekend- but hadn't rolled out fully at that point. Await the 06 ENS and later ECM; there's great agreement about heat in the models, but the intensity and especially duration wobbles about a bit at the moment.

---

06z GFS has a partial breakdown and reload, and is again at the lower end of the ENS long term. Still pretty nice next week.

The 1976 style stonker in the ENS this time is P05.

It’s notable that few of the runs have truly searing heat (sustained 25C+ uppers) in Southern France or Spain. A lot of recent years we’ve seen those kinds of temperatures. The jet is just so far North this year that it’s not dragging the heat up from the Sahara into Iberia. That’s what is making this summer rather different so far and a bit more like the 1995 than the 2003 or 2006 style of heatwave. It’s also why the North and West are doing very well for once.

---

Not looking forward to this at all. 

---

 

Really looking forward to the 17's and 18's here 😣

It should be a lot warmer than that but, being the worst decade for warmth in recorded history, there will be nothing noteworthy. However anything with sunshine would be warmly welcomed by me as a significant improvement on the dismal, drab dross of the past 12 days.

Hard to believe the record for June for Aberdeen is 84F(28.9C) when so many of the recent abysmal Junes have struggled to even get into the 20s. That was recorded in the first week as well – twice in fact in 1939 and 1950. First reading was recorded at Craibstone and the second at Dyce. Craibstone only recorded 83F(28.3C) in 1950 - a typical difference -so likely Dyce would have managed 85F(29.4C) had the station existed at the start of June 1939.

Widespread readings of 28-30C across Scotland from 4th – 6th June 1939. 87F(30.6C) at Liberton which I would imagine is the record for Edinburgh. 85F (29.4C) was recorded there in 1950.

Looks like a similar set-up to what's being modelled this time

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1939&maand=6&dag=4&uur=1200&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

Let’s see how the coming heatwave compares to those from so long ago that even many pensioners wouldn’t be able to remember them. Poorly, I suspect.

---

Well it might or might not deliver enough to cheer up our Scottish East coasters (though bear in mind inland and Western Scotland have been the warmest spots in the UK on a number of occasions this May and June), but if you look at the high res max temps in the GFS 12z next week there are 3 in a row where the warmest place in the country is...Manchester. No wonder Joe is so excited.

---

Well it might or might not deliver enough to cheer up our Scottish East coasters (though bear in mind inland and Western Scotland have been the warmest spots in the UK on a number of occasions this May and June), but if you look at the high res max temps in the GFS 12z next week there are 3 in a row where the warmest place in the country is...Manchester. No wonder Joe is so excited.

The difference for some of the long suffering Scottish east coasters (if the recent runs are to be believed) is that the centre of the high is further south than the previous blocked period. That, of course, may change.

---

Well it might or might not deliver enough to cheer up our Scottish East coasters (though bear in mind inland and Western Scotland have been the warmest spots in the UK on a number of occasions this May and June), but if you look at the high res max temps in the GFS 12z next week there are 3 in a row where the warmest place in the country is...Manchester. No wonder Joe is so excited.

I would also imagine that Bolty would be excited about that as well since that is his part of the country, although I reckon that he might be a bit disappointed with the lack of any sort of potential thundery activity in his area.

 

---

Next weekend is the tricky one to call. ENS runs show anything from searing record threatening heat to cold and wet. I am going to a big family birthday weekend where good weather will be vital. Still on tenterhooks, and still a long time off.

---

Next week is looking absolutely stunning pretty much across the board with temps widely in the high 20s to low 30s

 

For me that's absolutely horrific

Stinking sweaty people everywhere, sleepless nights, road rage, yobbos drinking too much etc...

---

 

I would also imagine that Bolty would be excited about that as well since that is his part of the country, although I reckon that he might be a bit disappointed with the lack of any sort of potential thundery activity in his area.

 

Given what happened to a house only minutes away from where I live 11 days ago, a lack of any possible thundery activity in the near future in this part of the world is very much to be welcomed, IMHO.

---

And the 1st 40c of the year chart award goes to...

NAVGEM