The Weather Outlook

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Retron
22 June 2018 17:47:02

The 12z GEFS for London continues to show the op being a marked outlier. This has to be some sort of gridpoint issue, surely...

(Note the op showing minima in the 20s by the end of the week. That's pretty rare even in record-breaking heatwaves.)


Leysdown, north Kent
moomin75
22 June 2018 17:48:20

The 12z GEFS for London continues to show the op being a marked outlier. This has to be some sort of gridpoint issue, surely...

Originally Posted by: Retron 

In your dreams Darren. It's gonna be hot. Cest La Vie. πŸ˜‹πŸ˜‹


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

moomin75
22 June 2018 17:50:32
For those that want mega Scorchio heat....take a look at the 12z GEM operational. It is incredible. πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯
Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Retron
22 June 2018 17:53:15

In your dreams Darren. It's gonna be hot. Cest La Vie. πŸ˜‹πŸ˜‹

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Luckily I don't live in London. It's not going to be hot where I am, at least not unless the sea breeze gives up!

GEFS shows mean highs of around 21C here through next week.


Leysdown, north Kent
moomin75
22 June 2018 17:54:49
I like many here love summer and heat, but these charts are insane. I would have a real fear of a fire danger if we continue to get day after day of this.....Vegetation has been allowed to overgrow in recent months and it's now seriously drying out and in many places growth has been out of control. A carelessly discarded fag end or dare I say a bottle or glass chucked out of a car could start anything. That would be a big concern.
Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

moomin75
22 June 2018 17:55:36

 

Luckily I don't live in London. It's not going to be hot where I am, at least not unless the sea breeze gives up!

GEFS shows mean highs of around 21C here through next week.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Yes where you are seems a little more pleasant but still bone dry, and if GEM verifies you will be sweltering too.


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Retron
22 June 2018 18:00:18

Yes where you are seems a little more pleasant but still bone dry, and if GEM verifies you will be sweltering too.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Nope. Look at the high-res and you'll see that Sheppey sticks out into relatively lower temps!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=9&carte=2&archive=0

The sea breeze would, in reality, knock a couple of degrees off that too. It's exceptionally rare here to get even into the mid 20s with a breeze blowing in from the sea.

Even in 2003, the temperature fell from 36 to 23 as soon as the wind switched round, and that's despite the rest of the afternoon having wafted that 36C air over the sea!

EDIT: Shouldn't you be cheering on NAVGEM, anyway?

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9024/navgemfr-8-126_koi5.png

 

 

 


Leysdown, north Kent
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2018 18:15:36

For those that want mega Scorchio heat....take a look at the 12z GEM operational. It is incredible. πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

GEM ENS P08 is better - significantly hotter than the op throughout.

Takes the crown this evening for legendary run.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
moomin75
22 June 2018 18:21:57

 

GEM ENS P08 is better - significantly hotter than the op throughout.

Takes the crown this evening for legendary run.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

You got a link to that.?


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Polar Low
22 June 2018 18:34:47

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=8&ech=216&mode=0&carte=0

 

You got a link to that.?

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Polar Low
22 June 2018 18:36:13

Yes Darren good smoke screen but you can add 10c in your flat

 

Nope. Look at the high-res and you'll see that Sheppey sticks out into relatively lower temps!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=9&carte=2&archive=0

The sea breeze would, in reality, knock a couple of degrees off that too. It's exceptionally rare here to get even into the mid 20s with a breeze blowing in from the sea.

Even in 2003, the temperature fell from 36 to 23 as soon as the wind switched round, and that's despite the rest of the afternoon having wafted that 36C air over the sea!

EDIT: Shouldn't you be cheering on NAVGEM, anyway?

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9024/navgemfr-8-126_koi5.png

 

 

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2018 18:42:20

or if you’re a wetterzentrale person like me, there’s this:http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=GEM&var=2&time=168&run=12&lid=P08&h=0&tr=6

 

 

 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Polar Low
22 June 2018 18:43:23
Polar Low
22 June 2018 18:51:25

Coming into the reliable those look hot to me ukmo usually quite sensible about things about heat

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=120&carte=1021

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=120&carte=1007

 

 

Ally Pally Snowman
22 June 2018 19:00:23

Hot ECM from 96h to 240h. 30 + each day you'd imagine 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Polar Low
22 June 2018 19:01:31

Good grief winds backing s/e later on then s on ecm very hot charts for s/e

 

 

Polar Low
22 June 2018 19:05:53

216 has to be a 35c chart for London surely id tick the box that said yes in an exam anyway.

Hot ECM from 96h to 240h. 30 + each day you'd imagine 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Polar Low
22 June 2018 19:19:44

That really does look like a Jires special 

 

216 has to be a 35c chart for London surely id tick the box that said yes in an exam anyway.

 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

moomin75
22 June 2018 19:21:54

That really does look like a Jires special 

 

 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

Temps will hot 50c plus in his shed!! 🀣🀣πŸ”₯πŸ”₯


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

White Meadows
22 June 2018 19:26:30
12z control doesn’t look too shabby does she:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

I wonder how 18z will deal with these sypnotics... could February’s SSW still be having a (positive) knock on effect in this part of the world?

Almost as fun as winter when rare extremes look more likely.

White Meadows
22 June 2018 19:27:34

Temps will hot 50c plus in his shed!! 🀣🀣πŸ”₯πŸ”₯

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Maybe 55c in Retron’s dungeon?

Polar Low
22 June 2018 19:32:57

His decorated it nicely this year  notice the inside shutters are up 

Related image

 

Temps will hot 50c plus in his shed!! 🀣🀣πŸ”₯πŸ”₯

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Tom Oxon
22 June 2018 19:49:38

 

2003 was pretty long. 27C on Saturday 2nd, First 30C+ on Sunday, then 30C+ every day until the following Tuesday, 10 days in total. We’re not quite there with this heatwave per the models so far, but it is only June.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

 

I don't think we can talk about prolonged heat and not talk about July '06, which has to be the mother of all heat spells...


S Warwickshire countryside, c.375ft asl.
moomin75
22 June 2018 19:56:17

 

 

I don't think we can talk about prolonged heat and not talk about July '06, which has to be the mother of all heat spells...

Originally Posted by: Tom Oxon 

Sod 2006, I'm thinking 1976....mixed in with a touch of August 2003.

All joking aside though, I hope we don't see wildfires.....I spend many times in Australia and the countryside is looking very dry and Australian-esque at the moment. I fear there is quite a high fire danger.


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

22 June 2018 20:08:00

Hot ECM from 96h to 240h. 30 + each day you'd imagine 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

I don't think so. Here are the T2m maximum temperature charts for the ECM model. No 30C until next Saturday.

Generally the maximum temperatures are to the west of London due to easterly winds. That only changes on 1st July on this ECM run when the winds move to the south and the Essex / Kent area then becomes hot.

Wednesday 27th - maximum of 80F so someway below 30C

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2a331d14c080dc858c972f7d81b3ce7f/max-temp-2m-6h/20180627-1800z.html

Thursday 28th - maximum of 85F so very close to 30C

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2a331d14c080dc858c972f7d81b3ce7f/max-temp-2m-6h/20180628-1800z.html

Friday 29th - maximum of 84F

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2a331d14c080dc858c972f7d81b3ce7f/max-temp-2m-6h/20180629-1800z.html

Saturday 30th - maximum of 87F (that is above 30C)

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2a331d14c080dc858c972f7d81b3ce7f/max-temp-2m-6h/20180630-1800z.html

Sunday 1st - maximum of 91F (Gravesend probably)

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/d9409acde1dee6f24e1e387817db7dfa/max-temp-2m-6h/20180701-1800z.html

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