Polar Low
22 June 2018 19:01:31

Good grief winds backing s/e later on then s on ecm very hot charts for s/e





 


 

Polar Low
22 June 2018 19:05:53

216 has to be a 35c chart for London surely id tick the box that said yes in an exam anyway.



Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Hot ECM from 96h to 240h. 30 + each day you'd imagine 


Polar Low
22 June 2018 19:19:44

That really does look like a Jires special 



 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


216 has to be a 35c chart for London surely id tick the box that said yes in an exam anyway.



 


moomin75
22 June 2018 19:21:54

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


That really does look like a Jires special 



 


 


Temps will hot 50c plus in his shed!! 🤣🤣🔥🔥


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
White Meadows
22 June 2018 19:26:30
12z control doesn’t look too shabby does she:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

I wonder how 18z will deal with these sypnotics... could February’s SSW still be having a (positive) knock on effect in this part of the world?

Almost as fun as winter when rare extremes look more likely.
White Meadows
22 June 2018 19:27:34

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Temps will hot 50c plus in his shed!! 🤣🤣🔥🔥


Maybe 55c in Retron’s dungeon?

Polar Low
22 June 2018 19:32:57

His decorated it nicely this year  notice the inside shutters are up 


Related image


 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Temps will hot 50c plus in his shed!! 🤣🤣🔥🔥


Tom Oxon
22 June 2018 19:49:38

Originally Posted by: TimS 


 


2003 was pretty long. 27C on Saturday 2nd, First 30C+ on Sunday, then 30C+ every day until the following Tuesday, 10 days in total. We’re not quite there with this heatwave per the models so far, but it is only June.



 


I don't think we can talk about prolonged heat and not talk about July '06, which has to be the mother of all heat spells...


S Warwickshire countryside, c.375ft asl.
moomin75
22 June 2018 19:56:17

Originally Posted by: Tom Oxon 


 


 


I don't think we can talk about prolonged heat and not talk about July '06, which has to be the mother of all heat spells...


Sod 2006, I'm thinking 1976....mixed in with a touch of August 2003.


All joking aside though, I hope we don't see wildfires.....I spend many times in Australia and the countryside is looking very dry and Australian-esque at the moment. I fear there is quite a high fire danger.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
22 June 2018 20:08:00

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Hot ECM from 96h to 240h. 30 + each day you'd imagine 



I don't think so. Here are the T2m maximum temperature charts for the ECM model. No 30C until next Saturday.


Generally the maximum temperatures are to the west of London due to easterly winds. That only changes on 1st July on this ECM run when the winds move to the south and the Essex / Kent area then becomes hot.


Wednesday 27th - maximum of 80F so someway below 30C


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2a331d14c080dc858c972f7d81b3ce7f/max-temp-2m-6h/20180627-1800z.html


Thursday 28th - maximum of 85F so very close to 30C


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2a331d14c080dc858c972f7d81b3ce7f/max-temp-2m-6h/20180628-1800z.html


Friday 29th - maximum of 84F


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2a331d14c080dc858c972f7d81b3ce7f/max-temp-2m-6h/20180629-1800z.html


Saturday 30th - maximum of 87F (that is above 30C)


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2a331d14c080dc858c972f7d81b3ce7f/max-temp-2m-6h/20180630-1800z.html


Sunday 1st - maximum of 91F (Gravesend probably)


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/d9409acde1dee6f24e1e387817db7dfa/max-temp-2m-6h/20180701-1800z.html

Ally Pally Snowman
22 June 2018 20:11:15

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


 


I don't think so. Here are the T2m maximum temperature charts for the ECM model. No 30C until next Saturday.


Generally the maximum temperatures are to the west of London due to easterly winds. That only changes on 1st July on this ECM run when the winds move to the south and the Essex / Kent area then becomes hot.


Wednesday 27th - maximum of 80F so someway below 30C


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2a331d14c080dc858c972f7d81b3ce7f/max-temp-2m-6h/20180627-1800z.html


Thursday 28th - maximum of 85F so very close to 30C


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2a331d14c080dc858c972f7d81b3ce7f/max-temp-2m-6h/20180628-1800z.html


Friday 29th - maximum of 84F


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2a331d14c080dc858c972f7d81b3ce7f/max-temp-2m-6h/20180629-1800z.html


Saturday 30th - maximum of 87F (that is above 30C)


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2a331d14c080dc858c972f7d81b3ce7f/max-temp-2m-6h/20180630-1800z.html


Sunday 1st - maximum of 91F (Gravesend probably)


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/d9409acde1dee6f24e1e387817db7dfa/max-temp-2m-6h/20180701-1800z.html



 


Thanks GW , you can normally add a degree or 2 to the max though so maybe Thursday and Friday as well.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
22 June 2018 20:11:34

GFS has 30C reached by next Thursday with 91F by Friday. Maximum temperatures on this model are in the London area. After Friday the temperatures ease down a bit but still hot.


https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/greater-london/max-temp-2m-6h/20180628-1800z.html


https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/greater-london/max-temp-2m-6h/20180629-1800z.html


ARPEGE has 31C near Exeter as early as Tuesday 


http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/runs/2018062212/arpegeuk-41-98-0.png?22-18


 

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
22 June 2018 20:40:25

It looks like a slow to shift High Pressure will be in charge, very and sunny and very light winds and some hot conditions likely from Saturday onwards and lasting at least for about 11 days.


Proper summer weather.  Still quite pleasant conditions in London today. By the 30th June and 1-2 July SE England could turn very humid and hot with a few thunderstorms being possible as SE winds and hot air mix with unstable Low Pressure.  The GFS and ECMWF Models both are very confident in this prediction of High Pressure from UK to NE Europe Scandinavian High.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
golfingmad
22 June 2018 21:46:31

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Sod 2006, I'm thinking 1976....mixed in with a touch of August 2003.


All joking aside though, I hope we don't see wildfires.....I spend many times in Australia and the countryside is looking very dry and Australian-esque at the moment. I fear there is quite a high fire danger.



If we had 1976 with a 'touch of August 2003' we'd have meltdown!


 


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2018 21:50:47
So, pub run time. We’ve had 4 upgrades on the trot from GFS after about 4 successsive downgrades. Will next week hold firm or start to slip back? What will happen at the Wed-Thurs inflection point, will this be resolved or remain uncertain?
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2018 21:56:34
By 81z, a minor (subtle) downgrade with lower pressure to the South.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2018 22:25:22
By 171z still closely following the previous run but slightly lower pressure and max temps.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Retron
23 June 2018 04:02:06

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Yes Darren good smoke screen but you can add 10c in your flat



I've never lived in a flat! It's what estate agents would call a "chalet bungalow" with a flat roof. I now have a portable aircon too, which helps immensely in the summer.


Not that it's going to be heavily in use with a forecast like this! Despite the heat-ramping here, the Met Office is going for pleasant enough temperatures IMBY.



Leysdown, north Kent
Polar Low
23 June 2018 07:52:37

 


Apologies, I was convinced you said a while ago you lived in a flat with your dad sorry for getting it wrong.


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


 


I've never lived in a flat! It's what estate agents would call a "chalet bungalow" with a flat roof. I now have a portable aircon too, which helps immensely in the summer.


Not that it's going to be heavily in use with a forecast like this! Despite the heat-ramping here, the Met Office is going for pleasant enough temperatures IMBY.



TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
23 June 2018 07:54:43
This morning’s GFS a big cool outlier, but also a dry one.

The drift this morning seems to be towards HP getting squeezed from North and South by the weekend.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
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