Looks OK for a while here, although I'm not liking the way that we're then back to cooler temperatures here in this part of the world by the 30th. After all, that could then easily end up being "it" for our summer with a number of "summer is over" posts then starting to appear here.

Overall it looks pretty nailed on for anticyclonic conditions for most people in the next week and even beyond. For parts of the SE I would say 30°C+ is likely.

Today’s mad max run, and it’s the maddest yet: GEM ENS P04

One possibility is anticyclonic conditions for Scotland and a light SE’ly drift for much of England. Fingers crossed Doc. 

ECM - upgrade. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_144_1.png

Indeed 17 c 850s in the south by day 7 WOW. mid 30s back on!!!?

And that cut-off low is hinting at the possibility of some good thunderstorms later - given a brief mention on 'week ahead' on Wed but not nailed on

To say I’m not liking the prospect of that is an understatement.

It would make me livid to have to sit in a stifling office all week only to be faced with cloudy 15C crap come the weekend

You could actually be right in this instance.

I was just looking at Gavin P.'s events video from last night and according to that, it looks as those easterlies are back again by next weekend which of course, would then result in cooler temperatures and yet more of that easterly muck coming in from off the North Sea as if we haven't had enough of that already during recent months.

Looking set fair for a good few days - when will a hosepipe ban be announced?

2013 spell lasted 2 weeks, not that difficult to beat on the face of it. We’ve just had a run of poorer summers since- 3 days & rain usual crap.

next week looking warmer again today and increasingly clammy. 

it lasted 4 weeks... well the June spell was around 2 weeks but the july wave lasted the month.

A few of the model runs are showing reloads in July. I really hope we get some.

There remain one or two ENS members showing quick breakdown and rain.

Wednesday evening.

A summer setup doesn’t get much better than this. Scorchio.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_129_1.png

That chart looks potentially quite thundery. Spanish plume type stuff. 

So far this afternoon:

GFS: Scorchio
UKMO: Scorchio
GEM: molto Scorchio but shorter lived maybe? Edit: no, not shorter lived.

2003 was pretty long. 27C on Saturday 2nd, First 30C+ on Sunday, then 30C+ every day until the following Tuesday, 10 days in total. We’re not quite there with this heatwave per the models so far, but it is only June.

35C on if GFS 12z is correct.

The inflection point seems to be Wednesday into Thursday. Half the runs have it heating up into the low to mid 30s, others have a cool off from the East and low pressure pushing up through France.

Yes, I've just flagged that up to the press. 

The GFS12z is an incredible run. Heat building up next week, then there is a sort of 'mini' relapse in the outer reaches followed by a reload at the end. If you compare T9 and T384 the pressure alignments are virtually identical!

Comparisons keep on being made with earlier summers such as 2003 and 1995 but the sustained presence of high pressure and the building of temperatures is perhaps more in tune with 1976. Early days I know but if the blocking high remains in place for July we are in for a memorable summer. This could be a summer in the UK that many members have not experienced before.

Was hoping after a day or so of not looking at charts that next weeks hot spell would have gone the way of many a winter cold spell and morphed in to something closer to normal.

For me sadly not the case but for the majority (I suspect) great news that the heat seems to be near enough nailed on and set to last for a few days at least 

Given lack of recent rain, strength of the sun and the fact it's some properly warm air with light winds, temps in the low 30's seems almost a given and the Scots get to join in too with several days of 20C + quite widely and even a cheeky 30c showing up (on GFS 12z)

The pattern also suggests an increasing risk of pressure falling over the near continent to me, with the attendant risk of some storms drifting up from the south later on.

Not really my thing but if you like 25c + for days on end (and certainly here) nights that don't drop much below 20c then I imagine you'll be enjoying the weather for the foreseeable