This evenings runs are a tad better again and I’m glad the GFS op is a cool outlier later in the run.

If you’re looking for the definition of a peach though, check out P02 in the GEM ensembles, which brings us August 2003 / June 1976.

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JFF, 384z - This would make for a fairly warm day in France:

In the south here it wouldn't be too bad either.

 

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Apart from NW Scotland,very little rain in the next couple of weeks generally, and virtually none for the south coast. The storms a couple of weeks back were very local, so in Chichester for instance, the only meaningful rain in the last four weeks was a shower lasting perhaps half an hour, on 31 May. And it looks as if the temperature will be well up, especially in a week or so. Drought warnings ahead!

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 

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I don't know whether those charts have updated since you posted them, DEW, but the temperature anomaly for the coming week is mostly slightly below average for the British Isles, with little change for the following week.

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Not too bad at all. Just like the high to shunt a bit further east.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP19EU12_174_1.png

 

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I don't know whether those charts have updated since you posted them, DEW, but the temperature anomaly for the coming week is mostly slightly below average for the British Isles, with little change for the following week.

Yes - they've been updated - and the rainfall pattern is different too, in places (though much the same for here)

Must give up getting up so early

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On days like today when I’m feeling particularly summer-is-over, faced with chilly charts and permacast, it’s always a tonic to turn to the GEM ensembles.

P08 this evening gives us an extended mini heatwave next week, then a brief chilly plunge, then June 1976 only hotter with the all time June record smashed on the 30th and 2015’s July record broken 3 years later to the day on the 1st. We can dream.

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On days like today when I’m feeling particularly summer-is-over, faced with chilly charts and permacast, it’s always a tonic to turn to the GEM ensembles.

P08 this evening gives us an extended mini heatwave next week, then a brief chilly plunge, then June 1976 only hotter with the all time June record smashed on the 30th and 2015’s July record broken 3 years later to the day on the 1st. We can dream.

So far no signs of 30C temps as this coming warm spell likely around high 20's so hottest day in April still stand.  Already half way to July and not yet seeing a 30C temps.  Despite no 30C on the forecast it still looking very dry with little rain around.  If that the case I would take it than seeing lot of 30C days then knowing we will have poor summer like last year.  

 

So far no signs of 30C temps as this coming warm spell likely around high 20's so hottest day in April still stand.  Already half way to July and not yet seeing a 30C temps.  Despite no 30C on the forecast it still looking very dry with little rain around.  If that the case I would take it than seeing lot of 30C days then knowing we will have poor summer like last year.  

Nil desperandum: these charts have been updated again and now looking decidedly warm (and a bit wetter) for the second week

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

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Nice looking ECM this morning. GFS goes pear shaped though. Still awaiting the elusive first 30C.

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cracking spell of weather coming up....very little rain to speak of

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The situation is very much 'poised' as we head through the second half of June and into early July.

Over the past month, tropical forcing has behaved quite nicely, with well-timed tropical forcing first setting up the long spells of mainly fine weather during May's second half (but with the notable exception of many eastern coasts!) and then mitigating the extent of unsettled conditions and southerly movement of the jet during June so far.

You see, with respect to having settled conditions across the UK, we essentially went from mostly helpful forcing to a mix of helpful and unhelpful forcing. 

 

Now, though, it's 'crunch time', as the unhelpful forcing (i.e. lingering La Nina-like atmospheric tendencies) has an opportunity to take over and send our summer markedly downhill - something a few model runs have explored during the past week. 

However, it just so happens that the state of the tropical Pacific Ocean is undergoing changes toward a more Nino-like state, and this is encouraging more counter-Nina events (such as westerly wind bursts (WWBs) i.e. weakened or reversed trade winds) to manifest compared to what might have been the case. One of those WWB taking place in the next few days will help to move the ridge back east next week after a brief retraction west that owes its occurrence to that Nina-like tendency we'd like to see the back of (unless for whatever reason - e.g. medicinal - you're not a fan of settled summer weather, that is!).

 

Unfortunately, we can't yet be sure that the Nina-like tendency won't fight back again and force the high pressure to locate west of the UK again by next weekend or soon after. GFS/GEFS continues to toy with this idea but ECM/EPS doesn't seem so interested.

This time last year, we were enjoying the fruitful outcomes of some very helpful tropical forcing with the Nina-like tendencies of the preceding winter broken, but then the tropical Pacific Ocean took on a Nina-like pattern, allowing the Nina-like tendencies to recover and then exert a strong enough influence on our weather patterns to steadily deteriorate conditions during July, resulting in a very westerly, changeable August that was uninspiring for the majority. In fact, I can't remember any weather highlights at all between mid-July and early September!

This year, the oceanic trend is in the opposite direction, so there's reason to be optimistic about the July prospects this year, but until if and when we see the La Nina tendencies fail to put up a significant fight during the next lull in helpful, Nino-like forcing (such as the WWBs), it's best to add in 'cautiously' before 'optimistic'. 

 

Basically, it's the ENSO World Cup taking place on a neutral stage, and those who enjoy fine summer weather should throw their support behind El Nino team .

p.s. Come On England! 

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Excellent explanation and like you let’s hope El Nino wins this particular set up !

 

So far no signs of 30C temps as this coming warm spell likely around high 20's so hottest day in April still stand.  Already half way to July and not yet seeing a 30C temps.  Despite no 30C on the forecast it still looking very dry with little rain around.  If that the case I would take it than seeing lot of 30C days then knowing we will have poor summer like last year.  

Amazing the 29.2C in April is still the hottest day of the year - Plenty of time for that to be broken - I have a hunch feeling that April figure could still be begging in August - But sorry to go OT - this summer so far is turning out to be a very nice one. Long may it continue.

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g

The situation is very much 'poised' as we head through the second half of June and into early July.

Over the past month, tropical forcing has behaved quite nicely, with well-timed tropical forcing first setting up the long spells of mainly fine weather during May's second half (but with the notable exception of many eastern coasts!) and then mitigating the extent of unsettled conditions and southerly movement of the jet during June so far.

You see, with respect to having settled conditions across the UK, we essentially went from mostly helpful forcing to a mix of helpful and unhelpful forcing. 

 

Now, though, it's 'crunch time', as the unhelpful forcing (i.e. lingering La Nina-like atmospheric tendencies) has an opportunity to take over and send our summer markedly downhill - something a few model runs have explored during the past week. 

However, it just so happens that the state of the tropical Pacific Ocean is undergoing changes toward a more Nino-like state, and this is encouraging more counter-Nina events (such as westerly wind bursts (WWBs) i.e. weakened or reversed trade winds) to manifest compared to what might have been the case. One of those WWB taking place in the next few days will help to move the ridge back east next week after a brief retraction west that owes its occurrence to that Nina-like tendency we'd like to see the back of (unless for whatever reason - e.g. medicinal - you're not a fan of settled summer weather, that is!).

 

Unfortunately, we can't yet be sure that the Nina-like tendency won't fight back again and force the high pressure to locate west of the UK again by next weekend or soon after. GFS/GEFS continues to toy with this idea but ECM/EPS doesn't seem so interested.

This time last year, we were enjoying the fruitful outcomes of some very helpful tropical forcing with the Nina-like tendencies of the preceding winter broken, but then the tropical Pacific Ocean took on a Nina-like pattern, allowing the Nina-like tendencies to recover and then exert a strong enough influence on our weather patterns to steadily deteriorate conditions during July, resulting in a very westerly, changeable August that was uninspiring for the majority. In fact, I can't remember any weather highlights at all between mid-July and early September!

This year, the oceanic trend is in the opposite direction, so there's reason to be optimistic about the July prospects this year, but until if and when we see the La Nina tendencies fail to put up a significant fight during the next lull in helpful, Nino-like forcing (such as the WWBs), it's best to add in 'cautiously' before 'optimistic'. 

 

Basically, it's the ENSO World Cup taking place on a neutral stage, and those who enjoy fine summer weather should throw their support behind El Nino team .

p.s. Come On England! 

Brilliant post James - thanks so much for the insight. :) 

12z GFS and MetO rolling out and the output is bloody brilliant.

High pressure slap bang across the UK into the mid range with sunshine and warmth for most if not all. Increasingly hot too I would have thought. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_144_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

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GFS: pretty good, and a cool outlier
UKMO: very good
ECM: Scorchio
GEM: Scorchio
TWO: indifferent, because it’s not snowing

One of my greatest frustrations with this site is people lose interest just as I start to pay attention.

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Not a bad outlook across the models currently. Generally settled, on ththe dry side and warmer than average. If it turns out that way many people will be very pleased (myself included, although I worry that more northern parts may end up unsettled and more prone to frontal activity)

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GFS: pretty good, and a cool outlier
UKMO: very good
ECM: Scorchio
GEM: Scorchio
TWO: indifferent, because it’s not snowing

One of my greatest frustrations with this site is people lose interest just as I start to pay attention.

Be fair Tim - did you not notice a World Cup is in progress?

looking forward to a decent summer - hope July is fine, since I am taking 3 weeks off and we are staying in the UK.

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Be fair Tim - did you not notice a World Cup is in progress?

looking forward to a decent summer - hope July is fine, since I am taking 3 weeks off and we are staying in the UK.

People watch that rubbish? 

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Looks to me like the curse of '8' summers has been lifted. Long may this continue and to think ahead, with the dry ground and HP never far from our shores what chances a record July CET? I am thinking 20c may be breached and I'm sure we will see a spell of record breaking temperatures this summer. 38C could be up for grabs.

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