I think after some brief teasing over the past few days there is some better agreement now of a front pushing through NW to SE on Thursday / Friday next week marking the onset of a significant change in weather type. Fairly consistent amongst the NWP this evening. 

Hopefully wont last too long. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_120_4.png

We need the rain but I’m gutted this settled weather can’t last longer and become even more spectacular. 6 weeks of largely dry and sunny weather ain’t bad however, and will be remembered for a long while to come in this part of the country. 

If (a big if) we can get some substantial heat over the next few weeks then this will go down as a classic summer here. 

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_120_1.png

Southern UK could well escape and stay dry at least with the first unsettled push. 

ECM 12z 

 

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Yep it looks like the irresistible force will win out over the immovable object from midweek onwards, as the perma-block weakens and the jet recharges. Still a chance longer term that WAA and Azore ridging will make it a short-lived attack, but it looks like a far more normal early summer set-up with high pressure more dominant to the south with lows skimming the UK to the NW.

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I'm usuually pretty critical - However, this past 5 to 6 weeks has been downright excellent here. Not too hot and by no means too cold either with some really excellent days. Juts hope it can carry on.

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Seems the models have tracked more towards the unsettled regime, though exact details vary. ECM shows a more dismal cool, wet and unsettled pattern, whereas the GFS 06Z shows more of a June 2003-type pattern - warm, humid and possibly quite thundery too.

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Not for the SE it seems . It looks like we will see the best of any sunshine and warmer temperatures over this period of mixed weather

Quite a vigorous low pressure system showing up for Thursday now with the possibility of gales for Northern Scotland. Certainly a bit of a shock compared to recently. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_96_1.png

Accumulated rainfall up to T+144 from the GFS http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_144_18.png

The NW very wet but the SE looks to stay relatively dry. 

Definitely a transition week coming up. Hopefully the Azores High can manage to have a bit of an influence as time goes on. 

 

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I think after some brief teasing over the past few days there is some better agreement now of a front pushing through NW to SE on Thursday / Friday next week marking the onset of a significant change in weather type. Fairly consistent amongst the NWP this evening. 

Hopefully wont last too long. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_120_4.png

We need the rain but I’m gutted this settled weather can’t last longer and become even more spectacular. 6 weeks of largely dry and sunny weather ain’t bad however, and will be remembered for a long while to come in this part of the country. 

If (a big if) we can get some substantial heat over the next few weeks then this will go down as a classic summer here. 

 

Yes it's been a pretty remarkable spell, the return of the pest from the West was inevitable at some stage and we are seeing the more familiar placement of +ve NAO going forward.

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The 12z GEFS are really interesting tonight. Several are Atlantic dominated but a significant number also bring the Azores High into play to give continued settled, dry and very warm weather. 

Take this one for instance - after a couple of wet days we’re back to anticyclonic weather by the end of the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP19EU12_174_1.png 

There is marked uncertainty over just how far south the jet is going to reach, it could still be this upcoming unsettled spell is very brief indeed. So uncertain. 

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The 12z GEFS are really interesting tonight. Several are Atlantic dominated but a significant number also bring the Azores High into play to give continued settled, dry and very warm weather. 

Take this one for instance - after a couple of wet days we’re back to anticyclonic weather by the end of the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP19EU12_174_1.png 

There is marked uncertainty over just how far south the jet is going to reach, it could still be this upcoming unsettled spell is very brief indeed. So uncertain. 

At the tiime of writing this - That looks excellent.

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Hard to tell what will happen this week. We finally have pattern change, that’s for sure, and we are returning to Westerlies. But how warm or cold, and how unsettled is hard to say.

ECMWF has been consistently unsettled and looks quite chilly. This is bad news as ECM is by far the most accurate model on average.

GFS op has been consistently middling, but a lot of ensemble members have been pretty good and the average remains warm.

GEM has flip flopped - latest run is warm and high pressure dominated

MetO’s limited free data makes it hard to judge

Given a. the pattern change, b. the experience of recent summers where these close run things always go the wrong way, c. the fact the best model is having none of the warm-up, I’m just on the pessimistic side of neutral at the moment.

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Just to address balance in here both gfs and ecm means have pressure rising steadily from the s/w in 6 to 7 days time.

So hopefully looking good for a improving outlook.

Bring on the pattern change,,,, anything to break the monotony of the cloudy cool crap fest we’ve endured for what seems like weeks round here. North Sea crud is just so depressing.

The return of the westerlies from Thursday may just be a temporary blip. GFS6Z indicates a strong return of high pressure, this time from the SW. This is a recurring theme with GFS. ECM0Z is a bit more reluctant about it, with more of a North/South split, but indications are there for a resurgent Azores high in FI.

Everything still to play for with a very good summer.

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I think after some brief teasing over the past few days there is some better agreement now of a front pushing through NW to SE on Thursday / Friday next week marking the onset of a significant change in weather type. Fairly consistent amongst the NWP this evening. 

Hopefully wont last too long. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_120_4.png

We need the rain but I’m gutted this settled weather can’t last longer and become even more spectacular. 6 weeks of largely dry and sunny weather ain’t bad however, and will be remembered for a long while to come in this part of the country. 

If (a big if) we can get some substantial heat over the next few weeks then this will go down as a classic summer here. 

Yep, bloody typical I’ve been virtually housebound throughout the current fantastic weather and come come the weekend ( Wife and daughter have arranged a weekend away for Fathers Day ) changes are afoot. If there’s one thing you can count on in Blighty, it’s the weather sticking the proverbial two fingers up at you.

The 06z GFS is a great run. 

A very brief unsettled blip followed by a return to decent summer conditions. 

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The 06z GFS is a great run. 

A very brief unsettled blip followed by a return to decent summer conditions. 

 

Whilst far better than some summer fare in recent years, the orientation of the high is a bit 'meh'

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Looks fantastic for here - high pressure and a westerly drift is exactly what we need.

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Whilst far better than some summer fare in recent years, the orientation of the high is a bit 'meh'

Could well turn out sunny - the time of year and strength of the sun is on our side. 

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With me being on holiday for 2 weeks from the 18th I've being paying more attention than usual to the GFS in F1, although it's only a week away now so approaching the semi-reliable. I'm quietly optmistic at least at this stage, that Azores high looks nice and 'ridgey'. Obviously the best weather qill be in the south but should be OK here too, and it will keep the east coast contingent happy too!

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