I think after some brief teasing over the past few days there is some better agreement now of a front pushing through NW to SE on Thursday / Friday next week marking the onset of a significant change in weather type. Fairly consistent amongst the NWP this evening. 

Hopefully wont last too long. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_120_4.png

We need the rain but I’m gutted this settled weather can’t last longer and become even more spectacular. 6 weeks of largely dry and sunny weather ain’t bad however, and will be remembered for a long while to come in this part of the country. 

If (a big if) we can get some substantial heat over the next few weeks then this will go down as a classic summer here. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_120_1.png

Southern UK could well escape and stay dry at least with the first unsettled push. 

ECM 12z 

I'm usuually pretty critical - However, this past 5 to 6 weeks has been downright excellent here. Not too hot and by no means too cold either with some really excellent days. Juts hope it can carry on.

Quite a vigorous low pressure system showing up for Thursday now with the possibility of gales for Northern Scotland. Certainly a bit of a shock compared to recently. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_96_1.png

Accumulated rainfall up to T+144 from the GFS http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_144_18.png

The NW very wet but the SE looks to stay relatively dry. 

Definitely a transition week coming up. Hopefully the Azores High can manage to have a bit of an influence as time goes on. 

Yes it's been a pretty remarkable spell, the return of the pest from the West was inevitable at some stage and we are seeing the more familiar placement of +ve NAO going forward.

The 12z GEFS are really interesting tonight. Several are Atlantic dominated but a significant number also bring the Azores High into play to give continued settled, dry and very warm weather. 

Take this one for instance - after a couple of wet days we’re back to anticyclonic weather by the end of the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP19EU12_174_1.png 

There is marked uncertainty over just how far south the jet is going to reach, it could still be this upcoming unsettled spell is very brief indeed. So uncertain. 

At the tiime of writing this - That looks excellent.

Just to address balance in here both gfs and ecm means have pressure rising steadily from the s/w in 6 to 7 days time.

So hopefully looking good for a improving outlook.

The return of the westerlies from Thursday may just be a temporary blip. GFS6Z indicates a strong return of high pressure, this time from the SW. This is a recurring theme with GFS. ECM0Z is a bit more reluctant about it, with more of a North/South split, but indications are there for a resurgent Azores high in FI.

Everything still to play for with a very good summer.

The 06z GFS is a great run. 

A very brief unsettled blip followed by a return to decent summer conditions. 

Whilst far better than some summer fare in recent years, the orientation of the high is a bit 'meh'

Could well turn out sunny - the time of year and strength of the sun is on our side. 

Is that a prerequisite?

Personally, I'm not into self-immolation just so someone else can be happy. I'm sure the east has had a fair few nice days over the past 6 weeks. It's not like it's ONLY the NW/W of Britain that's had it good.

To what exactly?

What exactly is your problem here?? All I said was that a westerly based high pressure regime will suit the east coast rather than an easterly based one. Sorry, but am I missing something here??

May as a whole was a fabulous month pretty much everywhere, it's the first 10 days of June and to a lesser extent the last week of May that have been fairly lackluster in the east.

The last time we had more than 10 hours of sun was over 12 days ago. That says a lot. The difference between west and east has been incredibly stark.

Yes looking very positive this morning. 

Not wall to wall sunshine by any means, and a keen SW’ly drift for the far NW, but overall looking dry and settled after a very brief unsettled spell.