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Joe Bloggs
09 June 2018 18:22:48

I think after some brief teasing over the past few days there is some better agreement now of a front pushing through NW to SE on Thursday / Friday next week marking the onset of a significant change in weather type. Fairly consistent amongst the NWP this evening. 


Hopefully wont last too long. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_120_4.png


We need the rain but I’m gutted this settled weather can’t last longer and become even more spectacular. 6 weeks of largely dry and sunny weather ain’t bad however, and will be remembered for a long while to come in this part of the country. 


If (a big if) we can get some substantial heat over the next few weeks then this will go down as a classic summer here. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Joe Bloggs
09 June 2018 18:26:31

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_120_1.png


Southern UK could well escape and stay dry at least with the first unsettled push. 


ECM 12z 


 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Arcus
09 June 2018 18:44:02
Yep it looks like the irresistible force will win out over the immovable object from midweek onwards, as the perma-block weakens and the jet recharges. Still a chance longer term that WAA and Azore ridging will make it a short-lived attack, but it looks like a far more normal early summer set-up with high pressure more dominant to the south with lows skimming the UK to the NW.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Hungry Tiger
09 June 2018 20:10:29

I'm usuually pretty critical - However, this past 5 to 6 weeks has been downright excellent here. Not too hot and by no means too cold either with some really excellent days. Juts hope it can carry on.


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Bolty
10 June 2018 11:07:28
Seems the models have tracked more towards the unsettled regime, though exact details vary. ECM shows a more dismal cool, wet and unsettled pattern, whereas the GFS 06Z shows more of a June 2003-type pattern - warm, humid and possibly quite thundery too.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
cultman1
10 June 2018 12:50:30
Not for the SE it seems . It looks like we will see the best of any sunshine and warmer temperatures over this period of mixed weather
Joe Bloggs
10 June 2018 17:00:16

Quite a vigorous low pressure system showing up for Thursday now with the possibility of gales for Northern Scotland. Certainly a bit of a shock compared to recently. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_96_1.png


Accumulated rainfall up to T+144 from the GFS http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_144_18.png


The NW very wet but the SE looks to stay relatively dry. 


Definitely a transition week coming up. Hopefully the Azores High can manage to have a bit of an influence as time goes on. 


 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Shropshire
10 June 2018 17:03:28


I think after some brief teasing over the past few days there is some better agreement now of a front pushing through NW to SE on Thursday / Friday next week marking the onset of a significant change in weather type. Fairly consistent amongst the NWP this evening. 


Hopefully wont last too long. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_120_4.png


We need the rain but I’m gutted this settled weather can’t last longer and become even more spectacular. 6 weeks of largely dry and sunny weather ain’t bad however, and will be remembered for a long while to come in this part of the country. 


If (a big if) we can get some substantial heat over the next few weeks then this will go down as a classic summer here. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


 


Yes it's been a pretty remarkable spell, the return of the pest from the West was inevitable at some stage and we are seeing the more familiar placement of +ve NAO going forward.


From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Joe Bloggs
10 June 2018 18:07:12

The 12z GEFS are really interesting tonight. Several are Atlantic dominated but a significant number also bring the Azores High into play to give continued settled, dry and very warm weather. 


Take this one for instance - after a couple of wet days we’re back to anticyclonic weather by the end of the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP19EU12_174_1.png 


There is marked uncertainty over just how far south the jet is going to reach, it could still be this upcoming unsettled spell is very brief indeed. So uncertain. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Hungry Tiger
10 June 2018 20:16:56


The 12z GEFS are really interesting tonight. Several are Atlantic dominated but a significant number also bring the Azores High into play to give continued settled, dry and very warm weather. 


Take this one for instance - after a couple of wet days we’re back to anticyclonic weather by the end of the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP19EU12_174_1.png 


There is marked uncertainty over just how far south the jet is going to reach, it could still be this upcoming unsettled spell is very brief indeed. So uncertain. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


At the tiime of writing this - That looks excellent.


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
10 June 2018 20:58:43
Hard to tell what will happen this week. We finally have pattern change, that’s for sure, and we are returning to Westerlies. But how warm or cold, and how unsettled is hard to say.

ECMWF has been consistently unsettled and looks quite chilly. This is bad news as ECM is by far the most accurate model on average.

GFS op has been consistently middling, but a lot of ensemble members have been pretty good and the average remains warm.

GEM has flip flopped - latest run is warm and high pressure dominated

MetO’s limited free data makes it hard to judge

Given a. the pattern change, b. the experience of recent summers where these close run things always go the wrong way, c. the fact the best model is having none of the warm-up, I’m just on the pessimistic side of neutral at the moment.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Polar Low
11 June 2018 08:07:00

Just to address balance in here both gfs and ecm means have pressure rising steadily from the s/w in 6 to 7 days time.


So hopefully looking good for a improving outlook.




JACKO4EVER
11 June 2018 11:42:11
Bring on the pattern change,,,, anything to break the monotony of the cloudy cool crap fest we’ve endured for what seems like weeks round here. North Sea crud is just so depressing.
golfingmad
11 June 2018 12:01:19

The return of the westerlies from Thursday may just be a temporary blip. GFS6Z indicates a strong return of high pressure, this time from the SW. This is a recurring theme with GFS. ECM0Z is a bit more reluctant about it, with more of a North/South split, but indications are there for a resurgent Azores high in FI.


Everything still to play for with a very good summer.


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
Solar Cycles
11 June 2018 12:13:30


I think after some brief teasing over the past few days there is some better agreement now of a front pushing through NW to SE on Thursday / Friday next week marking the onset of a significant change in weather type. Fairly consistent amongst the NWP this evening. 


Hopefully wont last too long. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_120_4.png


We need the rain but I’m gutted this settled weather can’t last longer and become even more spectacular. 6 weeks of largely dry and sunny weather ain’t bad however, and will be remembered for a long while to come in this part of the country. 


If (a big if) we can get some substantial heat over the next few weeks then this will go down as a classic summer here. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Yep, bloody typical I’ve been virtually housebound throughout the current fantastic weather and come come the weekend ( Wife and daughter have arranged a weekend away for Fathers Day ) changes are afoot. If there’s one thing you can count on in Blighty, it’s the weather sticking the proverbial two fingers up at you.

Joe Bloggs
11 June 2018 12:28:16

The 06z GFS is a great run. 


A very brief unsettled blip followed by a return to decent summer conditions. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Saint Snow
11 June 2018 12:48:34


The 06z GFS is a great run. 


A very brief unsettled blip followed by a return to decent summer conditions. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


 


Whilst far better than some summer fare in recent years, the orientation of the high is a bit 'meh'



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
LeedsLad123
11 June 2018 15:36:50
Looks fantastic for here - high pressure and a westerly drift is exactly what we need.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Joe Bloggs
11 June 2018 16:38:51


 


 


Whilst far better than some summer fare in recent years, the orientation of the high is a bit 'meh'


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Could well turn out sunny - the time of year and strength of the sun is on our side. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
11 June 2018 17:02:39
With me being on holiday for 2 weeks from the 18th I've being paying more attention than usual to the GFS in F1, although it's only a week away now so approaching the semi-reliable. I'm quietly optmistic at least at this stage, that Azores high looks nice and 'ridgey'. Obviously the best weather qill be in the south but should be OK here too, and it will keep the east coast contingent happy too!
Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Saint Snow
11 June 2018 19:48:53

and it will keep the east coast contingent happy too!

Originally Posted by: Col 


Is that a prerequisite?


Personally, I'm not into self-immolation just so someone else can be happy. I'm sure the east has had a fair few nice days over the past 6 weeks. It's not like it's ONLY the NW/W of Britain that's had it good.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
11 June 2018 21:19:09


 


Is that a prerequisite?


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


To what exactly?



Personally, I'm not into self-immolation just so someone else can be happy. I'm sure the east has had a fair few nice days over the past 6 weeks. It's not like it's ONLY the NW/W of Britain that's had it good.



What exactly is your problem here?? All I said was that a westerly based high pressure regime will suit the east coast rather than an easterly based one. Sorry, but am I missing something here??


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
LeedsLad123
11 June 2018 22:38:45


 


Is that a prerequisite?


Personally, I'm not into self-immolation just so someone else can be happy. I'm sure the east has had a fair few nice days over the past 6 weeks. It's not like it's ONLY the NW/W of Britain that's had it good.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


May as a whole was a fabulous month pretty much everywhere, it's the first 10 days of June and to a lesser extent the last week of May that have been fairly lackluster in the east.


The last time we had more than 10 hours of sun was over 12 days ago. That says a lot. The difference between west and east has been incredibly stark.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
moomin75
12 June 2018 06:54:03
0zs from GFS AND ECM all looking very nice and ridgy. This upcoming unsettled blip may be just that. It's been a cracking start to summer.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Joe Bloggs
12 June 2018 06:58:37

Yes looking very positive this morning. 


Not wall to wall sunshine by any means, and a keen SW’ly drift for the far NW, but overall looking dry and settled after a very brief unsettled spell.



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

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