The Weather Outlook

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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
18 June 2018 19:50:19
GFS: pretty good, and a cool outlier

UKMO: very good

ECM: Scorchio

GEM: Scorchio

TWO: indifferent, because it’s not snowing

One of my greatest frustrations with this site is people lose interest just as I start to pay attention.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
doctormog
18 June 2018 19:57:52
Not a bad outlook across the models currently. Generally settled, on ththe dry side and warmer than average. If it turns out that way many people will be very pleased (myself included, although I worry that more northern parts may end up unsettled and more prone to frontal activity)
Maunder Minimum
18 June 2018 20:41:19

GFS: pretty good, and a cool outlier
UKMO: very good
ECM: Scorchio
GEM: Scorchio
TWO: indifferent, because it’s not snowing

One of my greatest frustrations with this site is people lose interest just as I start to pay attention.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Be fair Tim - did you not notice a World Cup is in progress?

looking forward to a decent summer - hope July is fine, since I am taking 3 weeks off and we are staying in the UK.


New world order coming.
LeedsLad123
18 June 2018 20:57:31

 

Be fair Tim - did you not notice a World Cup is in progress?

looking forward to a decent summer - hope July is fine, since I am taking 3 weeks off and we are staying in the UK.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

People watch that rubbish? 


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
moomin75
18 June 2018 20:59:55
Looks to me like the curse of '8' summers has been lifted. Long may this continue and to think ahead, with the dry ground and HP never far from our shores what chances a record July CET? I am thinking 20c may be breached and I'm sure we will see a spell of record breaking temperatures this summer. 38C could be up for grabs.
Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Brian Gaze
18 June 2018 21:15:42

Good mid term warming trend and blowtorch heat a possibility. 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Solar Cycles
18 June 2018 21:31:52

Hopefully the warming trend as we head into July gains momentum, still not much rain around these parts thus far this year.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
19 June 2018 05:34:21

Good mid term warming trend and blowtorch heat a possibility. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Weather for the week ahead suggesting a cut-off low developing over Spain towards the end of next week with some very warm stuff coming in from the SE.This general pressure distribution supported by GFS and ECM this morning, though neither really develops the low pressure, just a rather flabby feature.

Still little sign of rain; the traditional cold front and thundery breakdown after 3 days doesn't feature.


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Nick Gilly
19 June 2018 06:25:48

 

Be fair Tim - did you not notice a World Cup is in progress?

looking forward to a decent summer - hope July is fine, since I am taking 3 weeks off and we are staying in the UK.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

 

GFS 00z looks scorchio to me

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 June 2018 06:43:56
GFS: Scorchio

ECM: Scorchio

GEM: ...Scorchio

GFS and GEM Ens:...toto Scorchio

There are finally 30Cs appearing on the GFS op max temps. About time. I hope they’re not gone again by 06z as we’re still talking about conditions a week or more out.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
moomin75
19 June 2018 07:03:53
These charts are unbelievably good right now. Major dry spell and lots of heat to come. To coin Gavin P's phrase, this summer could be turning into a Bobby Dazzler.
Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Ally Pally Snowman
19 June 2018 07:20:26

These charts are unbelievably good right now. Major dry spell and lots of heat to come. To coin Gavin P's phrase, this summer could be turning into a Bobby Dazzler.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

 

Indeed some insanely hot charts this morning.  Day 10 ECM would be 76 esque

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
19 June 2018 07:27:42

 

 

Indeed some insanely hot charts this morning.  Day 10 ECM would be 76 esque

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Hope to see clear skies with it as it been so rare to see sun rise without clouds around.  In order to get those high temps clouds need to stay off and allow temps to rise nicely from sun rise time. 

Solar Cycles
19 June 2018 07:30:22

 

 

Indeed some insanely hot charts this morning.  Day 10 ECM would be 76 esque

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Steady on Ally. 😁 

It continues to be very dry around these parts, rainfall is well below average since the start of the year, of course Mother Nature will compensate us at some point in tiime but let’s hope we can at least see out the remainder of summer before such. πŸ™‚

Gavin D
19 June 2018 07:30:56

A north to northwesterly wind for a few days as the high begins to build by the weekend that will get cut off as the high continues to drift further east, allowing temps to rise easily into the mid 20s for the south maybe a touch higher

UKMOPEU00_72_1.thumb.png.8b03eed54ab5aac0cef71cef46e7bdcc.pngUKMOPEU00_96_1.thumb.png.64ba21ccd645ac1c3239f024feac4de3.pngUKMOPEU00_120_1.thumb.png.f5a816ff830c54379477c6898a77a49b.pngUKMOPEU00_144_1.thumb.png.4eb056224d2f15513ba9e6ec573ae9af.png

Ally Pally Snowman
19 June 2018 07:37:17

 

Hope to see clear skies with it as it been so rare to see sun rise without clouds around.  In order to get those high temps clouds need to stay off and allow temps to rise nicely from sun rise time. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

 

High looks to be setting up in a good place to avoid cloud issues


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
19 June 2018 07:38:25

Steady on Ally. 😁 

It continues to be very dry around these parts, rainfall is well below average since the start of the year, of course Mother Nature will compensate us at some point in tiime but let’s hope we can at least see out the remainder of summer before such. πŸ™‚

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

 

Take a look a 76 on the archive very similar charts. We could be on the verge of something very special 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Solar Cycles
19 June 2018 07:42:52

 

 

Take a look a 76 on the archive very similar charts. We could be on the verge of something very special 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Will do. πŸ‘πŸ»

Rob K
19 June 2018 10:32:27
First 30C of the year looks on the cards by early next week. Bring it on!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." β€” Jerome K. Jerome

The Beast from the East
19 June 2018 10:44:30

First 30C of the year looks on the cards by early next week. Bring it on!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Yuk


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

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Bolty
19 June 2018 11:03:06

Very impressive models for next week to say the least, with 30C probably quite widely! In fact, the charts for next week look almost identical to the reanalysis for late June 1976.

And the other thing is, should this verify, the GFS has a notorious habit of undercooking temperatures during heat waves.


Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 June 2018 11:13:04
I'm feeling the way a lot of people felt the week before the Beast from the East. Several runs in a row showed the same screaming Easterly but every day there was some kind of spanner in the works appearing - warm air undercutting from the South and giving us sleet, or dry air overriding from the North giving a frosty but dry one. In the end we had largely cold but dry but with enough snow to look pretty here, and others had a shedload of snow.

The risks this time are 1. cloud incursions - it seems to have been abnormally cloudy recently, particularly the low stuff, 2. the high slipping too quickly to the East letting the rain in (as shown in 06 and 12z GFS yesterday) or 3. the high staying to the West and cold air coming down from the North around the top (as shown in a number of GFS and GEM ENS runs).

The dream scenario is - almost but not quite - shown in GFS 06z: a long heatwave, then what looks like a brief but dryish breakdown, then a reload. I love reloads, they make the end of a hot spell so much more bearable.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 June 2018 12:38:23
P11 takes the 06z ENS crown as most bonkers 1976 comeback.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
David M Porter
19 June 2018 15:21:24

 

 

Indeed some insanely hot charts this morning.  Day 10 ECM would be 76 esque

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

A repeat of late June, July and August 1995 would be ideal for me!


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 June 2018 16:59:53
GFS 12z starts the heat earlier, ends it earlier then reloads with a vast yet oddly not that hot HP.

GEM and UKMO remain solid.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl

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