Good mid term warming trend and blowtorch heat a possibility. 

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Hopefully the warming trend as we head into July gains momentum, still not much rain around these parts thus far this year.

Good mid term warming trend and blowtorch heat a possibility. 

Weather for the week ahead suggesting a cut-off low developing over Spain towards the end of next week with some very warm stuff coming in from the SE.This general pressure distribution supported by GFS and ECM this morning, though neither really develops the low pressure, just a rather flabby feature.

Still little sign of rain; the traditional cold front and thundery breakdown after 3 days doesn't feature.

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Be fair Tim - did you not notice a World Cup is in progress?

looking forward to a decent summer - hope July is fine, since I am taking 3 weeks off and we are staying in the UK.

 

GFS 00z looks scorchio to me

GFS: Scorchio
ECM: Scorchio
GEM: ...Scorchio
GFS and GEM Ens:...toto Scorchio

There are finally 30Cs appearing on the GFS op max temps. About time. I hope they’re not gone again by 06z as we’re still talking about conditions a week or more out.

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These charts are unbelievably good right now. Major dry spell and lots of heat to come. To coin Gavin P's phrase, this summer could be turning into a Bobby Dazzler.

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These charts are unbelievably good right now. Major dry spell and lots of heat to come. To coin Gavin P's phrase, this summer could be turning into a Bobby Dazzler.

 

Indeed some insanely hot charts this morning.  Day 10 ECM would be 76 esque

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

 

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Indeed some insanely hot charts this morning.  Day 10 ECM would be 76 esque

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

 

Hope to see clear skies with it as it been so rare to see sun rise without clouds around.  In order to get those high temps clouds need to stay off and allow temps to rise nicely from sun rise time. 

 

 

Indeed some insanely hot charts this morning.  Day 10 ECM would be 76 esque

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

 

Steady on Ally. 😁 

It continues to be very dry around these parts, rainfall is well below average since the start of the year, of course Mother Nature will compensate us at some point in tiime but let’s hope we can at least see out the remainder of summer before such. 🙂

A north to northwesterly wind for a few days as the high begins to build by the weekend that will get cut off as the high continues to drift further east, allowing temps to rise easily into the mid 20s for the south maybe a touch higher

 

Hope to see clear skies with it as it been so rare to see sun rise without clouds around.  In order to get those high temps clouds need to stay off and allow temps to rise nicely from sun rise time. 

 

High looks to be setting up in a good place to avoid cloud issues

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Steady on Ally. 😁 

It continues to be very dry around these parts, rainfall is well below average since the start of the year, of course Mother Nature will compensate us at some point in tiime but let’s hope we can at least see out the remainder of summer before such. 🙂

 

Take a look a 76 on the archive very similar charts. We could be on the verge of something very special 

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Take a look a 76 on the archive very similar charts. We could be on the verge of something very special 

Will do. 👍🏻

First 30C of the year looks on the cards by early next week. Bring it on!

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First 30C of the year looks on the cards by early next week. Bring it on!

Yuk

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Very impressive models for next week to say the least, with 30C probably quite widely! In fact, the charts for next week look almost identical to the reanalysis for late June 1976.

And the other thing is, should this verify, the GFS has a notorious habit of undercooking temperatures during heat waves.

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I'm feeling the way a lot of people felt the week before the Beast from the East. Several runs in a row showed the same screaming Easterly but every day there was some kind of spanner in the works appearing - warm air undercutting from the South and giving us sleet, or dry air overriding from the North giving a frosty but dry one. In the end we had largely cold but dry but with enough snow to look pretty here, and others had a shedload of snow.

The risks this time are 1. cloud incursions - it seems to have been abnormally cloudy recently, particularly the low stuff, 2. the high slipping too quickly to the East letting the rain in (as shown in 06 and 12z GFS yesterday) or 3. the high staying to the West and cold air coming down from the North around the top (as shown in a number of GFS and GEM ENS runs).

The dream scenario is - almost but not quite - shown in GFS 06z: a long heatwave, then what looks like a brief but dryish breakdown, then a reload. I love reloads, they make the end of a hot spell so much more bearable.

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P11 takes the 06z ENS crown as most bonkers 1976 comeback.

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Indeed some insanely hot charts this morning.  Day 10 ECM would be 76 esque

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

 

A repeat of late June, July and August 1995 would be ideal for me!

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GFS 12z starts the heat earlier, ends it earlier then reloads with a vast yet oddly not that hot HP.

GEM and UKMO remain solid.

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