GFS 00z fires up the blowtorch. 33C likely based on it.

Looks OK for a while here, although I'm not liking the way that we're then back to cooler temperatures here in this part of the world by the 30th. After all, that could then easily end up being "it" for our summer with a number of "summer is over" posts then starting to appear here.

 

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I seriously hope there is not an SEly drift Joe. The prospect of 13°C and drizzle while it is 15 to 20°C warmer in places is depressing.

Overall it looks pretty nailed on for anticyclonic conditions for most people in the next week and even beyond. For parts of the SE I would say 30°C+ is likely.

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Another upgrade this morning for the short term, slight downgrade for July reload. Next weekend still a bit in the balance but looking better.

Today’s mad max run, and it’s the maddest yet: GEM ENS P04

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I seriously hope there is not an SEly drift Joe. The prospect of 13°C and drizzle while it is 15 to 20°C warmer in places is depressing.

Overall it looks pretty nailed on for anticyclonic conditions for most people in the next week and even beyond. For parts of the SE I would say 30°C+ is likely.

One possibility is anticyclonic conditions for Scotland and a light SE’ly drift for much of England. Fingers crossed Doc. 

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ECM - upgrade. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_144_1.png

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ECM - upgrade. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_144_1.png

 

Indeed 17 c 850s in the south by day 7 WOW. mid 30s back on!!!?

 

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 Indeed 17 c 850s in the south by day 7 WOW. mid 30s back on!!!?

 

And that cut-off low is hinting at the possibility of some good thunderstorms later - given a brief mention on 'week ahead' on Wed but not nailed on

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Looks OK for a while here, although I'm not liking the way that we're then back to cooler temperatures here in this part of the world by the 30th. After all, that could then easily end up being "it" for our summer with a number of "summer is over" posts then starting to appear here.

 

To say I’m not liking the prospect of that is an understatement.

It would make me livid to have to sit in a stifling office all week only to be faced with cloudy 15C crap come the weekend

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This could actually end up being quite a long heat wave by UK standards. The models are now taking it well into next weekend, and even into the beginning of the following week, possibly. It could end up being the longest spell of summer heat since 2013, should it verify.

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To say I’m not liking the prospect of that is an understatement.

It would make me livid to have to sit in a stifling office all week only to be faced with cloudy 15C crap come the weekend

You could actually be right in this instance.

I was just looking at Gavin P.'s events video from last night and according to that, it looks as those easterlies are back again by next weekend which of course, would then result in cooler temperatures and yet more of that easterly muck coming in from off the North Sea as if we haven't had enough of that already during recent months.

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Looking set fair for a good few days - when will a hosepipe ban be announced?

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This could actually end up being quite a long heat wave by UK standards. The models are now taking it well into next weekend, and even into the beginning of the following week, possibly. It could end up being the longest spell of summer heat since 2013, should it verify.

2013 spell lasted 2 weeks, not that difficult to beat on the face of it. We’ve just had a run of poorer summers since- 3 days & rain usual crap.

next week looking warmer again today and increasingly clammy. 

 

2013 spell lasted 2 weeks, not that difficult to beat on the face of it. We’ve just had a run of poorer summers since- 3 days & rain usual crap.

next week looking warmer again today and increasingly clammy. 

it lasted 4 weeks... well the June spell was around 2 weeks but the july wave lasted the month.

In reality spells like 2013 and before that 2006 are extended periods containing 2 or 3 “heatwave” peaks interspersed by very limited breakdowns where the drought amd general warmth doesn’t completely disappear.

A few of the model runs are showing reloads in July. I really hope we get some.

There remain one or two ENS members showing quick breakdown and rain.

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it lasted 4 weeks... well the June spell was around 2 weeks but the july wave lasted the month.

not entirely uninterrupted however, as noted above. For a true lengthy heat wave then 1995 & 1976 are proper examples. 

 

Wednesday evening.

A summer setup doesn’t get much better than this. Scorchio.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_129_1.png

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Wednesday evening.

A summer setup doesn’t get much better than this. Scorchio.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_129_1.png

That chart looks potentially quite thundery. Spanish plume type stuff. 

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So far this afternoon:

GFS: Scorchio
UKMO: Scorchio
GEM: molto Scorchio but shorter lived maybe? Edit: no, not shorter lived.

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_147_17.png 

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not entirely uninterrupted however, as noted above. For a true lengthy heat wave then 1995 & 1976 are proper examples. 

 

2003 was pretty long. 27C on Saturday 2nd, First 30C+ on Sunday, then 30C+ every day until the following Tuesday, 10 days in total. We’re not quite there with this heatwave per the models so far, but it is only June.

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