Brian Gaze
22 June 2018 17:01:59

35C on if GFS 12z is correct.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2018 17:06:44

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


35C on if GFS 12z is correct.



The inflection point seems to be Wednesday into Thursday. Half the runs have it heating up into the low to mid 30s, others have a cool off from the East and low pressure pushing up through France.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Brian Gaze
22 June 2018 17:11:04

Originally Posted by: TimS 


 


The inflection point seems to be Wednesday into Thursday. Half the runs have it heating up into the low to mid 30s, others have a cool off from the East and low pressure pushing up through France.



Yes, I've just flagged that up to the press. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
golfingmad
22 June 2018 17:21:51

The GFS12z is an incredible run. Heat building up next week, then there is a sort of 'mini' relapse in the outer reaches followed by a reload at the end. If you compare T9 and T384 the pressure alignments are virtually identical!


Comparisons keep on being made with earlier summers such as 2003 and 1995 but the sustained presence of high pressure and the building of temperatures is perhaps more in tune with 1976. Early days I know but if the blocking high remains in place for July we are in for a memorable summer. This could be a summer in the UK that many members have not experienced before.


 


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
Hippydave
22 June 2018 17:29:53

Was hoping after a day or so of not looking at charts that next weeks hot spell would have gone the way of many a winter cold spell and morphed in to something closer to normal.


For me sadly not the case but for the majority (I suspect) great news that the heat seems to be near enough nailed on and set to last for a few days at least 


Given lack of recent rain, strength of the sun and the fact it's some properly warm air with light winds, temps in the low 30's seems almost a given and the Scots get to join in too with several days of 20C + quite widely and even a cheeky 30c showing up (on GFS 12z)


The pattern also suggests an increasing risk of pressure falling over the near continent to me, with the attendant risk of some storms drifting up from the south later on.


Not really my thing but if you like 25c + for days on end (and certainly here) nights that don't drop much below 20c then I imagine you'll be enjoying the weather for the foreseeable


 


 


Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Retron
22 June 2018 17:47:02

The 12z GEFS for London continues to show the op being a marked outlier. This has to be some sort of gridpoint issue, surely...


(Note the op showing minima in the 20s by the end of the week. That's pretty rare even in record-breaking heatwaves.)



Leysdown, north Kent
moomin75
22 June 2018 17:48:20

Originally Posted by: Retron 


The 12z GEFS for London continues to show the op being a marked outlier. This has to be some sort of gridpoint issue, surely...



In your dreams Darren. It's gonna be hot. Cest La Vie. 😋😋


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
moomin75
22 June 2018 17:50:32
For those that want mega Scorchio heat....take a look at the 12z GEM operational. It is incredible. 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Retron
22 June 2018 17:53:15

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


In your dreams Darren. It's gonna be hot. Cest La Vie. 😋😋



Luckily I don't live in London. It's not going to be hot where I am, at least not unless the sea breeze gives up!


GEFS shows mean highs of around 21C here through next week.


Leysdown, north Kent
moomin75
22 June 2018 17:54:49
I like many here love summer and heat, but these charts are insane. I would have a real fear of a fire danger if we continue to get day after day of this.....Vegetation has been allowed to overgrow in recent months and it's now seriously drying out and in many places growth has been out of control. A carelessly discarded fag end or dare I say a bottle or glass chucked out of a car could start anything. That would be a big concern.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
moomin75
22 June 2018 17:55:36

Originally Posted by: Retron 


 


Luckily I don't live in London. It's not going to be hot where I am, at least not unless the sea breeze gives up!


GEFS shows mean highs of around 21C here through next week.


Yes where you are seems a little more pleasant but still bone dry, and if GEM verifies you will be sweltering too.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Retron
22 June 2018 18:00:18

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Yes where you are seems a little more pleasant but still bone dry, and if GEM verifies you will be sweltering too.



Nope. Look at the high-res and you'll see that Sheppey sticks out into relatively lower temps!


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=9&carte=2&archive=0


The sea breeze would, in reality, knock a couple of degrees off that too. It's exceptionally rare here to get even into the mid 20s with a breeze blowing in from the sea.


Even in 2003, the temperature fell from 36 to 23 as soon as the wind switched round, and that's despite the rest of the afternoon having wafted that 36C air over the sea!


EDIT: Shouldn't you be cheering on NAVGEM, anyway?


http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9024/navgemfr-8-126_koi5.png


 


 


 


Leysdown, north Kent
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2018 18:15:36

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

For those that want mega Scorchio heat....take a look at the 12z GEM operational. It is incredible. 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥


GEM ENS P08 is better - significantly hotter than the op throughout.


Takes the crown this evening for legendary run.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
moomin75
22 June 2018 18:21:57

Originally Posted by: TimS 


 


GEM ENS P08 is better - significantly hotter than the op throughout.


Takes the crown this evening for legendary run.


You got a link to that.?


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Polar Low
22 June 2018 18:34:47

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=8&ech=216&mode=0&carte=0


 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


You got a link to that.?


Polar Low
22 June 2018 18:36:13

Yes Darren good smoke screen but you can add 10c in your flat


Originally Posted by: Retron 


 


Nope. Look at the high-res and you'll see that Sheppey sticks out into relatively lower temps!


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=9&carte=2&archive=0


The sea breeze would, in reality, knock a couple of degrees off that too. It's exceptionally rare here to get even into the mid 20s with a breeze blowing in from the sea.


Even in 2003, the temperature fell from 36 to 23 as soon as the wind switched round, and that's despite the rest of the afternoon having wafted that 36C air over the sea!


EDIT: Shouldn't you be cheering on NAVGEM, anyway?


http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9024/navgemfr-8-126_koi5.png


 


 


 


TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2018 18:42:20

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=8&ech=216&mode=0&carte=0


 


 



or if you’re a wetterzentrale person like me, there’s this:http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=GEM&var=2&time=168&run=12&lid=P08&h=0&tr=6


 


 


 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Polar Low
22 June 2018 18:43:23
Polar Low
22 June 2018 18:51:25

Coming into the reliable those look hot to me ukmo usually quite sensible about things about heat


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=120&carte=1021


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=120&carte=1007


 


 

Ally Pally Snowman
22 June 2018 19:00:23

Hot ECM from 96h to 240h. 30 + each day you'd imagine 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
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