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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU06_180_1.png
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South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.
That is important because although I am very interested in weather and extremes, I don't have a clue how to read the models so I admit to being a lurker! I come on here because I get a better idea than I do from places like BBC Weather. There's a lot of pessimism at times like this and so much so that you'd think it was going to be terrible by next weekend which might not be the case but I've no idea!
Originally Posted by: andy-manc
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Liking the talk of downgrades as I am not a fan of raw, still heat. ECM still going for maxes of 25-28c for most of next week for me, but hopes of something just a little cooler towards the weekend.
East Galway, Ireland.
12z is a marginal upgrade on 06z up to 240hrs, but broadly the same pattern with low pressure pushing up through France (soaking most of it on the sway) on Saturday and Sunday.
Better reload potential on this one, and the rain stays mainly across the channel.
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
The 12z GEFS is interesting from my point of view - the relatively cooler Saturday the 12z op threw up has good support, with the entire suite shifting a couple of degrees colder. The >20C minimas for London have vanished too, unsurprisingly (I did mention earlier how rare they are, so I'm not surprised to see them go).
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1
Still plenty of time for change, of course.
Up for the 18z, as usual, and it’s more of the same but marginally cooler max temps again. The Biscay trough is looking roughly similar to the 12z as at Thursday pm.
EDIT: a teeny bit better going into the weekend (cooler than 12z but low pressure further away) but still very similar.
EDIT 2: by Sunday a lot better: cooler uppers, but much more settled. Going to sleep now.
Correct thread this time , hope you're right Moomin
Warm to hot ECM 850s 10c - 16c for the next 10 days. 30c should happen somewhere at some point. Cloud could be an issue though as high isn't in perfect position .
We seem to be arriving at some kind of model consensus for next week, across all 4 and most ensembles, with high pressure in charge until Thursday, uppers starting to cool from midweek and a squeeze from North and South by the weekend. Bit of rain pushing up from South but mainly staying in France, then high pressure trying to edge in from the west and a battle until the end between ridging and Atlantic depressions.
Originally Posted by: TimS
The inflection seems to be about how much pressure rebuilds over and to the West of the U.K. on Friday after getting squeezed midweek.
Next weekend remains in the balance.
12z GEFS mean at t+192
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU12_192_1.png
As it stands this evening, we are staring at warm, dry and settled weather, as far as the eye can see.
Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs
"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine
Originally Posted by: David M Porter
No complaints.
I’m hoping it doesn’t break up for the Silverstone weekend. My son and his girlfriend are camping there for five days and it’ll be her first time in a tent!
Originally Posted by: Caz
A tents situation. We should canvas opinion on here but hopefully the models will get it pegged by then.
Winter 22/23
Days snow falling: 4
Days snow on ground:8
Max snow depths: 6cm (December 19th ish)
Summer 2022 max 39C on July 19th
Summer 2021 max: 32C on July 18th
Summer 2020 max: 36C on July 31st
More of the same this morning - although ECM is a storm lover’s dream!
Maybe should have proof read that..
ECM is vile. Just hope it doesn’t transpire like that.
Originally Posted by: bledur
LOL!
PS - huddled in a tent whilst rain patters on it is part of the charm of camping, is it not? As long as your tent's waterproof, that is.
Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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ECMWF going for more unsettled in a week or so.
ECM seems to have flipped quite dramatically from what it showed yesterday, altough it doesn't have much support from GFS this morning.
This is certainly OK.
Furnace heat for the south this weekend according to the GFS 06z:
Berkhamsted
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