And the 1st 40c of the year chart award goes to...

NAVGEM

Nailed on 

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Well it might or might not deliver enough to cheer up our Scottish East coasters (though bear in mind inland and Western Scotland have been the warmest spots in the UK on a number of occasions this May and June), but if you look at the high res max temps in the GFS 12z next week there are 3 in a row where the warmest place in the country is...Manchester. No wonder Joe is so excited.

ha! :)

This part of the world can do very well on a SE’ly (same goes for Merseyside and the Fylde coast) - we get a slight foehn effect off the Peak District. 

I am excited but mainly just for the sunshine. Whether it’s 23C or 30C I’m not too fussed. 

Certainly looking wonderful next week. Bring it on. 

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Not often you set like that nights also becoming very warm with time

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

 

 

 

Also GFS is certainly ramping up the temps.

The iPhone weather app shows a max of 30C here on Wednesday. Weather Pro and BBC (EPS) show 27C, MetO not yet updated for Wednesday but shows 25C on Tuesday - it’s always the most conservative of the three. 

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_168_1.png.

 ECM more of an easterly by t+168.

Still very warm but not as spectacularly hot as some of the other output with the risk of some cloud/haar on the east coast no doubt. 

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incoming drought conditions look at those zeros

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=3&sort=0

and the gfs jet mean 180

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=21&ech=180&mode=3&carte=0

mean for London not under 1020 mb

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&gfs_2m

 

outstanding rum sorry run 

 

 

 

Also GFS is certainly ramping up the temps.

The iPhone weather app shows a max of 30C here on Wednesday. Weather Pro and BBC (EPS) show 27C, MetO not yet updated for Wednesday but shows 25C on Tuesday - it’s always the most conservative of the three. 

ECM doesn't look as good, especially with the high centred further north resulting in those stupid easterlies again (will they ever go away?).

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ECM doesn't look as good, especially with the high centred further north resulting in those stupid easterlies again (will they ever go away?).

Lovely! Those easterlies in May and early June were beautifully dry, sunny and warm around here.

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Lovely! Those easterlies in May and early June were beautifully dry, sunny and warm around here.

Yes - but you've had your quota of nice weather for the year. It's not really Manchester if it isn't raining.

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Yes - but you've had your quota of nice weather for the year. It's not really Manchester if it isn't raining.

True. Over the last few days, we have been getting the rain here in Edinburgh which they would normally be getting in Manchester (this has already resulted in this month's rainfall total at Edinburgh Gogarbank so far being just around 5mm short of the 1981-2010 June average), so they are more than welcome to have that rain back if they wish so that we can then have our turn in this part of the world for some nice, warm and sunny weather for a change (I know that the west of Scotland has already had a lot of decent weather during this summer but surely, our turn for getting that here in east of Scotland has to come some time as we still haven't really had that yet in this part of the world).

 

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Nailed on 

 

40?! 

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I’ve lived in both Manchester and Edinburgh so can judge this west vs east nonsense quite objectively. :D

In general Edinburgh is drier and sunnier than Manchester but (it’s a big but), Edinburgh (and much of the east coast of the UK) is often NOT good when the rest of the UK is experiencing heatwave conditions. If it’s 28C and sunny in Manchester on a SE’ly breeze it’s not unknown for it to be 15C and foggy in Edinburgh. Theres’s absolutely nothing worse when the rest of the country is hot and sunny and you’re stuck under low cloud and haar - it happens quite often - it certainly did when I lived there. 

Manchester in general does deserve its wet reputation, not in terms of volume of water (Cardiff and Bristol are wetter in that respect), but in terms of number of rain days. The city is prone to convective showers, more than places closer to the coast including, say, Liverpool. However Manchester is positively arid compared to Glasgow, loads more rain days up there. I think Sheffield has a similar number of rain days to Manchester simply because it’s higher altitude and again, prone to convective showers. Leeds less. 

That said, the weather in general, in the UK, is fairly crap, especially the further north and west you travel. The differences are sometimes exaggerated though and we’re all in a similar crap boat. Kent and the far SE can be very different on occasion. 

Manchester and NW England can occasionally do far better than the rest of the country, especially in easterly and SE’ly conditions. When there’s a SE’ly wind we can sometimes be the hottest part of the country. 

Sorry off topic! 

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40?! 

I’m confident 

 

 

(Just a little tribute to the great Gary Sarre)

 

There is good agreement of warm or even potentially hot weather for many next week across th models. Long may it stay that way. As for 40°C? Perhaps not. 

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ECM mean supports the idea of HP over the North Sea.

A general easterly drift likely, but very warm and sunny for most. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMAVGEU12_168_1.png

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Fantasic charts. I cant see the easterly drift being too much of a problem for the most part.

I think the weather has been ok so far this side of Pennines. Some cloudy days but generally ok.
Linton on ouze (York) average max for May was 19.3c compared with 18.2c for Manchester and Liverpool. For June its 19.7c compared with 19.7c for Manchester and 20.2c for Liverpool.

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18z coming out. It’s up to Thursday and no 30C symbols yet. But nice looking charts. This is home grown heat rather than advected heat from the Med. Like June 1995 - the parallels are strong. That one topped out at 33C in Barbourne and we then had that sea breeze front on the 30th that was a bit like tonight’s dry cold front.

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No 30s by Friday either. But I think Bournemouth and Southampton will do well from this one.

Ah, finally a 31C next Sat

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Well it might or might not deliver enough to cheer up our Scottish East coasters (though bear in mind inland and Western Scotland have been the warmest spots in the UK on a number of occasions this May and June), but if you look at the high res max temps in the GFS 12z next week there are 3 in a row where the warmest place in the country is...Manchester. No wonder Joe is so excited.

On that note, I was looking at Gavin P.'s five day forecast which he does every Wednesday and the GFS model run which he used for that, had the high pressure sitting very slightly to the south of here by the weekend.

Clearly if the high pressure was too far to the south of us, the whole thing would just be a south of England only event but that is clearly not the case this time as the high pressure is still far enough north here, to confine any more unsettled weather to the far north of Scotland and the Northern Isles.

In that scenario, places on the east coast of Scotland such as Aberdeen would benefit the most from the Fohn Effect with a slight SW drift if that came off and if that was to happen, I'm sure that even Richard from Aberdeen would be more than happy with that.

 

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ECM mean supports the idea of HP over the North Sea.

A general easterly drift likely, but very warm and sunny for most. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMAVGEU12_168_1.png

that has 30C written all over it for me down here 😜😛

Nice to see that despite some of the dafter charts, ECM shows the chance of 30C in, say, Reading is minimal:

https://weather.us/forecast/2639577-reading/ensemble/euro 

Also nice to see a general easterly waft is expected. That should be reinforced by a sea breeze IMBY and keep the hot stuff at bay.

A sustained warm spell does look likely, but at the present the silly end of the scale is most unlikely.

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