Fax chart for Sunday shows promise if you want 

As a fellow Saints fan heading up to Wigan from Oxfordshire on Sunday I have mixed feelings about this!

 

 

As a fellow Saints fan heading up to Wigan from Oxfordshire on Sunday I have mixed feelings about this!

 

 

Well - at this stage it looks like the South will get a tonking - weatherwise of course!!  COYR

 

 

Noosa is lovely isn't it. Much prefer weekend drives to the North of Brisbane rather than the more touristy Gold Coast. Mind you some of the tablelands around the Gold Coast are beautiful, and much cooler in the hills.

The cricket often starts around late November early December which is the traditional super cell season, so you'll usually get some cracker of storms during the ashes etc.

Stoppit ! I want to come back for a 5th time  I also went to Sydney a few times and Adelaide for the Ashes in 2005-6 but my favourite area is still Cairns to Brisbane down the Bruce Highway and popping over to a Whit Sunday Island or two 

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Inevitable "upgrades" in PPN accumulations and distribution this morning with the high res models now coming into play. There will always be more snow than models initially suggest in these circumstances as they don't handle the convective stuff well (obviously). Think those in the SE and CS areas could be really surprised by this. Snow won't hang around that long but it could be extremely disruptive for short periods.

 

True like last easterly. Not to mention storm Emma . It was on the day of the blizzard that the met issued a rare red warning for parts of the SW.

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The cold slightly further North on this run in comparison to the 00z? Either that or the cold pool is slightly narrower, meaning I now just get a brief flirt with the -10 850 iso.

Not sure if that little shortwave @ ~T42 just off Brest has anything to do with it. That was not there on the 00Z.

Still there looks to be a fair bit of wintry ppn arround in the channel, its just whether surface conditions are conducive enough to allow it to settle. I guess only time will tell.

The cold slightly further North on this run in comparison to the 00z? Either that or the cold pool is slightly narrower, meaning I now just get a brief flirt with the -10 850 iso.

Not sure if that little shortwave @ ~T42 just off Brest has anything to do with it. That was not there on the 00Z.

Still there looks to be a fair bit of wintry ppn around in the channel, its just whether surface conditions are conducive enough to allow it to settle. I guess only time will tell.

I can exclusively reveal that it won't settle on the surface of the Channel. 🙂 To be serious, it could depend on whether the wind is such that air reaches the Channel Islands from across the Cherbourg Peninsula, or whether it's more NEly so that it comes down the whole length of the Channel.

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As a fellow Saints fan heading up to Wigan from Oxfordshire on Sunday I have mixed feelings about this!

 

I'm a rugby league fan (of a different 'Saints') and you don't know how confusing that post was to me when I first read it.

 

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Murr sausage?

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018031506/gfsnh-0-156.png?6

 

 

...then cold from NW for rest of month on 06z

 

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ICON DAYTIME MAX for many parts of the UK are at -1 or -2c on Sunday: Perhaps another ice day for some!?

 

GFS SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH DAYTIME MAXES OF -1 TO +1C:

 

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ICON DAYTIME MAX for many parts of the UK are at -1 or -2c on Sunday: Perhaps another ice day for some!?

 

GFS SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH DAYTIME MAXES OF -1 TO +1C:

 

At this time of year, whether you make an ice day or not will depend on cloud levels. An overcast day and some could well see one. I wonder what is the latest ever ice day at low altitude?

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Inevitable "upgrades" in PPN accumulations and distribution this morning with the high res models now coming into play. There will always be more snow than models initially suggest in these circumstances as they don't handle the convective stuff well (obviously). Think those in the SE and CS areas could be really surprised by this. Snow won't hang around that long but it could be extremely disruptive for short periods.

 

Yes looking like a proper wintry blast for the final weekend of winter*

 

*The seasons are set by the cosmos, not by the Met Office... Roll on spring!

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I wonder if this second cold spell is due to the second SSW - we did have two SSW both were major really. Is this cold spell a result of the second SSW, ie two SSW's = two cold spells? or is it because we are in a negative NA0?

 

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At this time of year, whether you make an ice day or not will depend on cloud levels. An overcast day and some could well see one. I wonder what is the latest ever ice day at low altitude?

Late March 2013 - as I recall somewhere in the region of 25th March 2013.

 

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Late March 2013 - as I recall somewhere in the region of 25th March 2013.

 

15 April 1966

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At this time of year, whether you make an ice day or not will depend on cloud levels. An overcast day and some could well see one. I wonder what is the latest ever ice day at low altitude?

I don't know, but the latest in the CET daily series (which I believe is averaged over three sites), going back to 1878, is 6th March, 1942. So if one occurred on Sunday, which must be a real possibility, it would be the latest by 12 days, which would be an astonishing margin.

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I wonder if this second cold spell is due to the second SSW - we did have two SSW both were major really. Is this cold spell a result of the second SSW, ie two SSW's = two cold spells? or is it because we are in a negative NA0?

 

I think it was probably one SSW with two phases. And I think the negative NAO is the result of the SSW; prior to late February it was pretty positive.

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www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0

 

GFS Fi showing Beast 3, "the final showdown" in cinemas for Easter

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I think it was probably one SSW with two phases. And I think the negative NAO is the result of the SSW; prior to late February it was pretty positive.

One SSW with three dips.

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/fluxes.gif

Looks like another (minor, very brief) one coming up too.

 

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www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0

 

GFS Fi showing Beast 3, "the final showdown" in cinemas for Easter

My son lives in Sydney , so i like to compare maps by pressing the Australia/NZ 'domaine' button at the top especially as he is coming over for Easter he is going to get quite a shock!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=384&code=code&mode=0&mode3h=0&runpara=0&carte=4

.

Alan

 

 

 

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