A cruel blow for the Channel Islands this morning as we are set to miss out on this UK wide event if the GFS 0z is to be believed! To be honest the writing was on the wall yesterday but an uplift of 4 degrees on the mean 850 hPa temps on GEFS overnight still hurts!
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2018031600/graphe3_1000_218.0399932861328_247.01998901367187___.gif

All the angst about southward corrections a distant memory and we now see the core of the low uppers targeting the North as the ‘transition’ line from snow to rain (Sunday) moves closer to the south coast and takes the CIs the wrong side - for now of course as we still have two days to run.

As the 850's continue to drift upwards I'm wondering if this will turn out to be like cold spells we were used to before the last one.i.e. downgraded nearer the event and going back to the old M4 marginal line. Shame if it does but at least it will remind people that cold spells won't for ever more be like the last one which I think some people were expecting.

As the 850's continue to drift upwards I'm wondering if this will turn out to be like cold spells we were used to before the last one.i.e. downgraded nearer the event and going back to the old M4 marginal line. Shame if it does but at least it will remind people that cold spells won't for ever more be like the last one which I think some people were expecting.

Well it depends where you are.  It's an upgrade for the north (as it currently stands).  A few days ago it was looking like the high was too far south for Scotland and N England.  

You have to be lucky to get a direct hit! Always has been the case. Just look at any historic cold spell , there is usually only a small slice of cold .

I can remember many let downs here, where the high has ended up further south than originally modelled.  Interesting that the last two spells have pushed it north.  Perhaps the effects of a stratospheric wind reversal have been underestimated, and the stratosphere is trying to force a 60N troposphere wind reversal which results in the high further north than models are anticipating?  

A quick look at the fax charts this morning suggests that those of us in the south will wonder what all the talk of snow was about over the weekend. Those further north should still get their fix but no streamers for us down south, just a raw and maybe drizzly couple of days.

What was modelled as a -13 to -14C hit down here is now a glancing blow of -8C to -9C uppers. 

In some ways that's good as I am meant to be travelling to meet family, but it would have been nice to see a bit of late snowfall. 

A quick look at the fax charts this morning suggests that those of us in the south will wonder what all the talk of snow was about over the weekend. Those further north should still get their fix but no streamers for us down south, just a raw and maybe drizzly couple of days.

What was modelled as a -13 to -14C hit down here is now a glancing blow of -8C to -9C uppers. 

In some ways that's good as I am meant to be travelling to meet family, but it would have been nice to see a bit of late snowfall. 

I'm glad you're not my weather forecaster Rob . Don't be tempted to make a career of it ! I don't like the sound of that drizzle.

 

I'm glad you're not my weather forecaster Rob . Don't be tempted to make a career of it ! I don't like the sound of that drizzle.

Maybe more like snizzle for you, but my comments were related to this region. I would expect the warnings for the south to be removed or at least reduced greatly in size some time today.

 

Maybe more like snizzle for you, but my comments were related to this region.

 

You are well inside the warning area for Saturday Rob?

 

You are well inside the warning area for Saturday Rob?

Sorry, see my edit above - I would expect that the warning areas will be adjusted today to remove this part of the country (more southern parts), based on the morning output. Chilterns etc still look like getting a bit I imagine.

 

Sorry, see my edit above - I would expect that the warning areas will be adjusted today to remove this part of the country (more southern parts), based on the morning output. Chilterns etc still look like getting a bit I imagine.

Lol Rob, I think you are now in an amber warning zone....

 

Lol Rob, I think you are now in an amber warning zone....

Yeah, I saw that. God knows what model output they are using, but I will believe it when I see it. Based on yesterday's output I would have expected an amber warning for here. This morning? I simply don't see it, and neither do any of the public hi-res models.

Still, I am sure they know best...

 

 

Well it depends where you are.  It's an upgrade for the north (as it currently stands).  A few days ago it was looking like the high was too far south for Scotland and N England.  

You have to be lucky to get a direct hit! Always has been the case. Just look at any historic cold spell , there is usually only a small slice of cold .

 

I can remember many let downs here, where the high has ended up further south than originally modelled.  Interesting that the last two spells have pushed it north.  Perhaps the effects of a stratospheric wind reversal have been underestimated, and the stratosphere is trying to force a 60N troposphere wind reversal which results in the high further north than models are anticipating?  

 

 

Having the high further north is most definitely not an upgrade. The further south the better to cut off this wrist-slittingly awful easterly garbage.

It looked like we were going to get perhaps a few okay days due to the high pressure now the outlook is as rotten as ever with exceptionally low levels of sunshine set to continue for at least the next week. Even with milder air moving in it is still looking like being cloudy and miserable. The main point of note about this month is going to be the outstanding lack of sunshine and the possibility is certainly there of it ending up as the dullest March on record for the UK.

As for the “cold” spell, the lowest it looks like getting here is -1C so just a continuation of the endlessly unpleasant chilly rubbish without real cold which has been in place for the past four months

 

Yeah, I saw that. God knows what model output they are using, but I will believe it when I see it. Based on yesterday's output I would have expected an amber warning for here. This morning? I simply don't see it, and neither do any of the public hi-res models.

 

Still, I am sure they know best...

Given what some of the models are saying this morning i.e. diminishing the snow threat, the Met could easily have held off issuing an amber warning.

I would be very surprised if they subsequently withdrew it when then didn't need to issue one so early today.

 

 

Well it depends where you are.  It's an upgrade for the north (as it currently stands).  A few days ago it was looking like the high was too far south for Scotland and N England.  

You have to be lucky to get a direct hit! Always has been the case. Just look at any historic cold spell , there is usually only a small slice of cold .

 

I can remember many let downs here, where the high has ended up further south than originally modelled.  Interesting that the last two spells have pushed it north.  Perhaps the effects of a stratospheric wind reversal have been underestimated, and the stratosphere is trying to force a 60N troposphere wind reversal which results in the high further north than models are anticipating?  

 

 

I'm beginning to think my best route back from Manchester (if I get there) on Saturday night will be M6 > A66.

 

Given what some of the models are saying this morning i.e. diminishing the snow threat, the Met could easily have held off issuing an amber warning.

I would be very surprised if they subsequently withdrew it when then didn't need to issue one so early today.

FYI

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcj2x8gt4

 

Given what some of the models are saying this morning i.e. diminishing the snow threat, the Met could easily have held off issuing an amber warning.

I would be very surprised if they subsequently withdrew it when then didn't need to issue one so early today.

Yeah, shows what I know 

Clearly the output the Met can see this morning differs from what us mere mortals can see, because looking at the changes from yesterday it looked like this was a dead duck for us in the south this morning.

This looks quite extensive to me and you!? We just need to keep an eye to that small channel low - and make sure it doesn't move too much further north because any further will turn the snow to sleet or cold rain. Salisbury Plain could see a good covering by the end of Sunday if this comes about.

Mid afternoon Saturday:

EARLY HOURS OF Sunday:

Midday Sunday:

For us in the far SW we are now looking at very cold rain instead of cold rain🙄

You will probably get snow I am sure but most likely be wet snow so it won't settle if if falls. - Still nbice to see it and you did do quite well in the last easterly with those snow streamers off the channel which gave south Devon and Cornwall a pasting when most of east Devon missed out until storm Emma hit.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-03-18