Its showing annoying northerly's in fi.

Don't let the Doc see this post 

I agree Duane in that at this time of year, a N'ly is no good away from the far N. Some nice sunshine down here would be nice though and anything is better than rain/wind/W and SW winds.

Don't exactly know where and when just yet but I think a few places will get a decent covering of snow over the weekend which will come as a shock to the unsuspecting.

I echo Neil and would go for the Channel Islands, the South Coast (yes, including Portsmouth ) and the S and E in general. Looks like the NE will get some snow IMO too.

Driest?

Russ and Saint 

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Yes still quite a variety of solutions on the cold air over the weekend on the GEFS, ranging from:

to this:

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Don't let the Doc see this post 

I agree Duane in that at this time of year, a N'ly is no good away from the far N. Some nice sunshine down here would be nice though and anything is better than rain/wind/W and SW winds.

Don't exactly know where and when just yet but I think a few places will get a decent covering of snow over the weekend which will come as a shock to the unsuspecting.

I echo Neil and would go for the Channel Islands, the South Coast (yes, including Portsmouth ) and the S and E in general. Looks like the NE will get some snow IMO too.

Driest?

Russ and Saint 

I’d even pass on a northerly at this time of the year, preferring a nice mild anticyclonic southwesterly. The cold and gloomy anticyclonic output is not inspiring me currently but I’m sure a spot of cold rain/drizzle will cheer me up in the coming days. 

The chance of snow is definitely there for southeastern and maybe even some southern parts over the weekend. The details are still changing and tomorrow will probably provide more clarity.

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12z Arpege 

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/run/2018031412/arpegeeur-0-90.png?12

Looks very snowy to me. 

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12z Arpege 

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/run/2018031412/arpegeeur-0-90.png?12

Looks very snowy to me. 

 

ECM another superb 72h chart -13 into the east

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=3&type=0&archive=0

 

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_384_1.png 

Please this for Easter

12z Arpege 

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/run/2018031412/arpegeeur-0-90.png?12

Looks very snowy to me. 

Agree with that Joe.

I think the Yellow warnings will be extended further N and further W (regarding the weekend) in the next day or two if the 00zs follow this evening's trends.

A certain Nathan will be copying and pasting for us to glance at before proceeding to wipe our backsides.

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Helen Willetts just now on bbc 1 "perhaps some significant snow for the south at the weekend" 

Not really a surprise with the stunning output tonight 

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The southerly corrections have now ceased and the reverse back north a bit has commenced and with the wider margins comes increased instability with the risk of prolonged Sunday snow back in the frame for the South and more of the U.K. at risk of convective snowfall.
No one is thinking on the scale of Beast 1.0, but for the time of year highs around freezing and potentially disruptive snow is something very noteworthy imo.

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The southerly corrections have now ceased and the reverse back north a bit has commenced and with the wider margins comes increased instability with the risk of prolonged Sunday snow back in the frame for the South and more of the U.K. at risk of convective snowfall.
No one is thinking on the scale of Beast 1.0, but for the time of year highs around freezing and potentially disruptive snow is something very noteworthy imo.

Beast 1.0 failed to deliver much snow here, hopefully junior will make up for it, even though it will melt quickly

 

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EC progressive again to breakdown. ensembles spread at 120 will be interesting. I cant see the ridge collapsing so easily

 

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I think some of the places that "missed out" last time in SE/CS England may get a pleasant surprise judging by this evenings 12z set. Fingers crossed for Portsmouth!

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The southerly corrections have now ceased and the reverse back north a bit has commenced and with the wider margins comes increased instability with the risk of prolonged Sunday snow back in the frame for the South and more of the U.K. at risk of convective snowfall.
No one is thinking on the scale of Beast 1.0, but for the time of year highs around freezing and potentially disruptive snow is something very noteworthy imo.

Agree 100%.  The output has changed again today, this afternoon.  There is a slightly greater risk - according to the output - of some organised snow than after this morning's runs, affecting parts of the south. There may be further tweaks, no, there WILL be further tweaks to come.

I will always tell it as I see it.

By Friday afternoon, things should start to settle down a bit as regards Sunday's weather.

WI

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Quite glorious output continues this evening if you like cold. To be honest it can snow a foot in August and I’d still love it (totally hypothetical of course).
The daffodils along with Jason’s new leather sandals are going to have to wait a bit longer this Spring.

18z ICON.

Snowfest. 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/run/icon-0-72.png?14-18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/run/icon-1-72.png?14-18

An extremely unstable easterly developing into the outlook now. 

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18z ICON.

Snowfest. 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/run/icon-0-72.png?14-18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/run/icon-1-72.png?14-18

An extremely unstable easterly developing into the outlook now. 

It seems to be a more extreme option than most of the other models. 

The GFS still has the SE and possibly south generally in the firing line http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_75_1.png 

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I'll be back in Aberdeen this Saturday for the next 3 weeks. Hoping to at least see some fluirries, but not enough to cause road chaos. 

It'll be my son's first trip to Scotland  (We live in OZ), so hopefully he can see a little snow. Don't get much of it down here in Brisbane, just endless days of boring sunshine with the odd super cell thrown in for good measure.  

 

It seems to be a more extreme option than most of the other models. 

The GFS still has the SE and possibly south generally in the firing line http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_75_1.png 

Indeed,  but there has been a significant shift northwards in the convective zone through today IMO. Not by a significant distance per se, but enough to give more of the UK population a significant snow risk. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_84_1.png I’d imagine many central areas could also get in on the act with a profile like this. 

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Looks as though the jet has had its ghoolies chopped off for the foreseeable.

edit: they’ll probably be sewn back on in time ready for June.

I'll be back in Aberdeen this Saturday for the next 3 weeks. Hoping to at least see some fluirries, but not enough to cause road chaos. 

It'll be my son's first trip to Scotland  (We live in OZ), so hopefully he can see a little snow. Don't get much of it down here in Brisbane, just endless days of boring sunshine with the odd super cell thrown in for good measure.  

I expect that going from the start of the Aussie autumn (which will no doubt, still be far hotter than our own typical summer) to this extended winter which we are experiencing here during what is supposed to be our spring, will feel like quite a shock to the system whether you get those snow flurries up in Aberdeen or now.

 

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