The best chance for a breakthrough in the GFS op  solution looks to be around 23rd-24th November- the end of next week. Those long-fetch easterlies have returned south a little and some interesting little troughs and lows are developing. Beyond that, you're already in FI as far as I'm concerned and anything can happen, so maybe worth watching- a week from now, onwards. 

The repeated fito is the high south of us driving vigorous lows north and upsetting the E-W regime.

---

The meridonal pattern is striking.

I would much rather be in this position in late November than in a zonal pattern waiting for the jet to buckle or find a way to dive south. 

All the time the AO and the NAO stays negative there is always the chance of some fairly last minute changes to advect cold southwards.

The meridonal pattern is also pulling some quite warm air north while we remain on the warm side of the trough in the south..again this is preferable to zonal IMO. 

---

Agreed (with all 3 preceding posts). The current synoptics are interesting, much more so than endless zonal muck even if In the end it leads to nothing in terms of wintriness. I’d rather see this as we approach winter than storm after storm and mild, wet and windy conditions.(Sorry Chunky!)

---

Plenty of interest I agree. Also worth watching developments during the middle of next week. We could have another named storm and recent GFS runs have been ramping up wind gust speeds. Signs it could be a ripper IMHO.

---

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_120_1.png

I fancy a trip to Iceland! 

---

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_120_1.png

I fancy a trip to Iceland! 

Well you know the way “our cold” gets shunted SE to Greece, maybe the same thing will happen with Iceland’s. 

---

 

Well you know the way “our cold” gets shunted SE to Greece, maybe the same thing will happen with Iceland’s. 

But you must know everything only shifts east when it's forecast to be over the Prime Meridian.   When it's to our west it just stays there...

Still close but no cigar on today's output, but at least there's some stability in the predicted pattern and so still potential for some seasonably colder weather for the whole country.   At least the synoptic pattern is interesting. 

---

 

Well you know the way “our cold” gets shunted SE to Greece, maybe the same thing will happen with Iceland’s. 

 

Well the cold and snow in SE Europe over the last 20 years are well documented, and symptomatic of the decline in winter HLB , as borne out by Retron's 21 years since a mid winter easterly.

---

 

 

Well the cold and snow in SE Europe over the last 20 years are well documented, and symptomatic of the decline in winter HLB , as borne out by Retron's 21 years since a mid winter easterly.

Cut it out, I was making a joke.

---

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_120_1.png 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Have these updated or something? On my links I'm getting both with LP north of Norway at 1000mb. Both with LP just north of Scotland at 975 mb, both with pressure centred over Italy at 1025 mb and both with a slightly displaced to the west Azores high at 1025 mb. The GFS has a secondary LP west of Ireland at 985 mb but UKMO just has this as an undeveloped feature albeit at similar. Greenland HP central pressure is higher on GFS but looks like very good agreement to me at 5 days out.

---

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Have these updated or something? On my links I'm getting both with LP north of Norway at 1000mb. Both with LP just north of Scotland at 975 mb, both with pressure centred over Italy at 1025 mb and both with a slightly displaced to the west Azores high at 1025 mb. The GFS has a secondary LP west of Ireland at 985 mb but UKMO just has this as an undeveloped feature albeit at similar. Greenland HP central pressure is higher on GFS but looks like very good agreement to me at 5 days out.

No they have not updated. For conditions in the U.K. they are different. Perhaps they are cached on your machine?

---

 

Cut it out, I was making a joke.

Er ok I was stating a metrological fact....anyway looking at the NWP tonight and clearly signs that a meridional pattern could return beyond the west based NAO which is unusual synoptically.

---

Things look like they could get interesting from here on the pub run (see chart) , but that's not saying they will...edit...and they don't particularly, on this run the PV looks like settling in over Baffin on Dec 1st and a friendly HP cell over Biscay.

 

---

 

No they have not updated. For conditions in the U.K. they are different. Perhaps they are cached on your machine?

No they are not cached. I agree for the UK the GFS has a NW' ly for the north and a SW' ly for the south whereas the UKMO has a colder northerly element for the north although still fundamentally SW flow for the South. For 5 days out as overall synoptic charts they are not however "significantly" different and have the significant similarities that I highlighted. 

---

Things look like they could get interesting from here on the pub run (see chart) , but that's not saying they will...edit...and they don't particularly, on this run the PV looks like settling in over Baffin on Dec 1st and a friendly HP cell over Biscay.

 

As has already been mentioned a few times in recent days, I think that at the moment, FI probably begins at around T96. From what I recall of the model runs from a few days ago, it took them a bit of time before they finally came to some agreement concerning developments from this weekend onwards.

---

The ECM ensemble suite has detected another potential evolution in the 12z

Suddenly a noticeable cold cluster has reappeared with cold to very cold conditions becoming progressively the dominant grouping by the end and dragging the ensemble mean down from around day 7-8.

It confirms the uncertainty in the possible evolution of the pattern over the next week or two.

But a mild week ahead seems fairly certain for much of England if not further north.  Next weekend onwards may prove to hold some increasing interest.....

Or it may all change again....

---

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

---

Decent ecm this morning a couple of cool/cold northerlies,  then day 10 looks to be setting up an easterly. Split PV Arctic high going into Scandi .

 

---

ECM improved this morning, not much mild mush on offer, looks a chilly flow 

---

Somewhat of a change of heart across all models this morning, with blocking winning out. Certainly the ECM 240 albeit a long way out is gearing up for a cold North Easterly.

---