1993 - 21st November, 6 inches of snow IMBY and an ice day, -11C 850s for two whole days.

It's not too early, but it is breathtakingly rare. Clearly this year won't see a repeat, either!

It's sourcing the deep cold these days. there's only the top of greenland and that cold fails before it gets to us? Open water still to the direct north so a longer modified run for anything dropping straight at us and no deep cold pool yet to our east.

Marginal is all I can think of for us? ....... and then the SW also seems keen on popping in every 5 days or so.....

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12z almost brings in the cold again... almost.... but the Mild air wins out again....

I cant write it off...

But we know the likely outcome....

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Totally agree with this - we have been so, so unlucky in terms of cold and wintry potential. On the positive side - That being said... - how often would you see a Greenland blocking during the most unsettled time of the year (November) !? Even if we did have a north or north easterly - I doubt it would bring anything wintry or too memorable as it's too early in the season for snow and cold.

I vaguely remember some 2-3" snowfall over the SW end of November 2005 - when I was away. That was memorable.

I have just recently returned from eastern Europe - in Brasov, Bucharest Romania it hit 20c on Sunday and Monday. - Well over 10c above average.

Back on topic - I sense the Atlantic will wake up in December and we will get area's of low pressure coming in with cooler NW'ly incursions as they pass.

 

A characteristic of the modern era has been shortwave development and phasing of Low pressure in the Atlantic to maintain the jet stream, it isn't bad luck when it happens over and over again. 

Clearly the worst case scenario has come to pass again, a West based NAO that just becomes the normal zonal train as the Greenland heights lessen. Time to hunker down and brace ourselves for us a lengthy period of Atlantic systems with attendant wind and rain. 

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 But GFS and ECM seem to me to have depressions 'threading the needle', slipping between Iceland and John o'Groats and not bringing the cold air south to any extent. 

Interesting way of describing the current output, because that what it does look like. 

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 One week away and a long way off but this could bring some snow to north behind the trough. - The system goes from a NW to SE direction. But will await other runs and see if the 18z chart is in agreement to this!?

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A characteristic of the modern era has been shortwave development and phasing of Low pressure in the Atlantic to maintain the jet stream, it isn't bad luck when it happens over and over again. 

Clearly the worst case scenario has come to pass again, a West based NAO that just becomes the normal zonal train as the Greenland heights lessen. Time to hunker down and brace ourselves for us a lengthy period of Atlantic systems with attendant wind and rain. 

This is where you are treading on thin ice. You are clearly right that something has changed in the last 30 years. How long that will last for is a different matter. It's also wrong to assume that what we have seen this week will necessarily be followed by a lengthy Atlantic spell. IMO you would add to your credibility by being more nuanced and not so quick to draw conclusions! 

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This is where you are treading on thin ice. You are clearly right that something has changed in the last 30 years. How long that will last for is a different matter. It's also wrong to assume that what we have seen this week will necessarily be followed by a lengthy Atlantic spell. IMO you would add to your credibility by being more nuanced and not so quick to draw conclusions! 

Well said, Brian.

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1993 - 21st November, 6 inches of snow IMBY and an ice day, -11C 850s for two whole days.

It's not too early, but it is breathtakingly rare. Clearly this year won't see a repeat, either!

On page 2 of this very thread there's a discussion, along with pics and charts, of the amazing November 2005 West Country whiteout. It brought snowmen to Somerset, and travel chaos, a thousand motorists having to be rescued, and the RAF flying in emergency supplies to Cornwall. It was brilliant, because for once the further south-west you went, the greater the snow and chaos.

The discussion was there for the same reason: posters erroneously claiming it doesn't snow in lowland Britain in November any more.

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Ah, now I understand the problem.  As I keep saying, you have only to read the detail.

...of which is reflective to the headline.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_96_1.png 

I’m not sure I’m quite ready to totally write off the cold for this part of the world just yet. Even if it cold may be the less likely outcome, mild is not necessarily a foregone conclusion for all parts.

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On page 2 of this very thread there's a discussion, along with pics and charts, of the amazing November 2005 West Country whiteout. It brought snowmen to Somerset, and travel chaos, a thousand motorists having to be rescued, and the RAF flying in emergency supplies to Cornwall. It was brilliant, because for once the further south-west you went, the greater the snow and chaos.

The discussion was there for the same reason: posters erroneously claiming it doesn't snow in lowland Britain in November any more.

The discussion was about the rarity of lowland snow in November in the south of England.  I for one never suggested it had become less likely and the outcome of the various contributions confirmed that snow in those lowland areas is indeed quite rare.

Anyway, ECM 12z out to T+168 and broadly consistent: just the wrong side still.

 

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...of which is reflective to the headline.

Except it isn't unless you don't bother to read the detail properly or the associated graph.

I don't understand why this is so difficult?

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The discussion was about the rarity of lowland snow in November in the south of England.  I for one never suggested it had become less likely and the outcome of the various contributions confirmed that snow in those lowland areas is indeed quite rare.

Anyway, ECM 12z out to T+168 and broadly consistent: just the wrong side still.

 

Extraordinary - a belt of green from Canada to Siberia, and it STILL doesn't happen for us!

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_96_1.png 

I’m not sure I’m quite ready to totally write off the cold for this part of the world just yet. Even if it cold may be the less likely outcome, mild is not necessarily a foregone conclusion for all parts.

I find the last few iterations of the major NWP rather fascinating in that the ‘decay’ of potential next week has if anything reversed with the noteworthy heights across Greenland looking stronger run to run.

It might just be a tad too premature to right off a decent cold spell - especially for Northern regions.

 

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Whilst we remain on the wrong side (for now), my old haunt Bjorli has 73cm of snow as per the link below (in Norwegian but you can see Bjorli is mentioned and the final picture is my mate who is busy preparing the slopes). All my Norwegian contacts have sent me many photos of the recent snowfalls and as it is still snowing heavily, they will be up to 1 metre of snow by the end of the weekend before temperatures plummet to between -12c and -18c.

https://www.nrk.no/ho/74-centimeter-sno-pa-grotli-1.13781530

Still... I have my Pompey dew to look forward to by morning 

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I find the last few iterations of the major NWP rather fascinating in that the ‘decay’ of potential next week has if anything reversed with the noteworthy heights across Greenland looking stronger run to run.

It might just be a tad too premature to right off a decent cold spell - especially for Northern regions.

 

It certainly is interesting Neil even if, as is quite possible, it amounts to nothing significant in terms of cold. It wouldn’t take much, but if that “something” doesn’t happen we will most likely end up with nothing of note beyond interesting synoptics and mild weather. Time will tell but I’m not quite ready to discount the possibility of cold altogether.

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Except it isn't unless you don't bother to read the detail properly or the associated graph.

I don't understand why this is so difficult?

Predicting higher probability of cold for last December which ended up above average... predicting milder mid-end period which saw more cold spells than December. Not that difficult to say that was a poor call. 

I guess our interpretations are different, but maybe I’m just less forgiving.

The current synoptic output actually reminds me of the early winter last year. Back then there were clearly signals that blocking over Scandi and Greenland was in the offing (as per the infamous Hammond video). The problem wasn't the lack of blocking if it was cold you wanted over our shores, it was the fact that the blocking was too high a latitude, and the cold air was bottled up to the north. We had some decent set-ups that would normally deliver, but there was no cold to tap into.

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Mean temperature anomaly (850hPa) over the course of the ECM run this evening. Sez it all really:

 

Col hell. 

 

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Mean temperature anomaly (850hPa) over the course of the ECM run this evening. Sez it all really:

 

 

 

It does say a lot. It also explains a lot of the constant mutual sniping that goes on every winter when we are not in the middle of a cold spell which is most of the time. The Scottish contingent are generally colder than the southern contingent and both, probably subconsciously, don't take into account the others situation enough - and that chart shows the difference. Perhaps we should only listen to people when they are in a white sector :-)

 

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