A cold weekend on the way and was was noted in the last thread tonight's GEFS12z is the coldest of the season so far. 

Notable how the clustering of the 850hPa temps on the GEFS  has shifted from between the 0 and -5C lines 24 hrs ago to firmly on the -5C mark and under from the 18th onwards.

Edit: that's the London GEFS.

Notable how the clustering of the 850hPa temps on the GEFS  has shifted from between the 0 and -5C lines 24 hrs ago to firmly on the -5C mark and under from the 18th onwards.

Edit: that's the London GEFS.

Not quite accurate there. The coldest part is actually Sunday and Monday before they climb from Tuesday with a relatively mild week next week (from Tuesday).

The 850s then dip again but are generally between -2c and -3c, before climbing again closer to 0c by the end.

Of course, the GEFS often changes dramatically - just as the op.

Snow at this time in the S is extremely unlikely. Never say never for the very end of November but that is well and truly in F.I.

Oh dear Mike you are on the hunt for Mild 

you  will want Darren Bett’s job next .

looks average to me and not that mild at all

Matty! Welcome back. Thought you hated anything resembling cold... Has someone hacked your account?

The trend for 3-4 days now has been increasingly towards blocked and colder conditions.
Some will happily follow ‘mild fever’ without even looking at the output but actually the Atlantic is looking quiet, whether you like it or not.
I think the worst of the Autumn storms blew themselves out last month.

edit: all those orange and yellows at high latitudes... absent polar vortex... something seems very different in the output from the past 6 November’s 😉

Tonight's UKMO extended for anyone interested

 

Not quite accurate there. The coldest part is actually Sunday and Monday before they climb from Tuesday with a relatively mild week next week (from Tuesday).

The 850s then dip again but are generally between -2c and -3c, before climbing again closer to 0c by the end.

Of course, the GEFS often changes dramatically - just as the op.

Snow at this time in the S is extremely unlikely. Never say never for the very end of November but that is well and truly in F.I.

All academic, because it'll be replaced by the 18z any minute now, but the clustering past mid-month looks on or below the -5C line to me. The mean is between -2 and -3C, but that's just an example of why the mean average is a poor guide, as far as I'm concerned.

18z GFS virtually identical at 168 to what D Bett has talked about at 21:55

 

Not quite accurate there. The coldest part is actually Sunday and Monday before they climb from Tuesday with a relatively mild week next week (from Tuesday).

The 850s then dip again but are generally between -2c and -3c, before climbing again closer to 0c by the end.

Of course, the GEFS often changes dramatically - just as the op.

Snow at this time in the S is extremely unlikely. Never say never for the very end of November but that is well and truly in F.I.

Snow in the south in November has always been very unlikely. I can think of only a small handful of occasions in the last 50+ years.

I'm not expecting snow yet; if I see a snowflake it will be a bonus.  I am focussed on the synoptic patterns being predicted by the models, with high latitude upper heights and the jet stream behaving atypically for the time of year.

 

Snow in the south in November has always been very unlikely. I can think of only a small handful of occasions in the last 50+ years.

I've lived here since 1997 and I can think of more than a handful of occasions when it has snowed (not necessarily accumulated) in October and November. 

 

I've lived here since 1997 and I can think of more than a handful of occasions when it has snowed (not necessarily accumulated) in October and November. 

I'm with Brian on this one. It depends of course on your location and altitude but we've had lying snow here in November in both of the last two winters and before that about 5 years ago when I lived near Bath we had a decent fall on November 7th. 

 

I'm with Brian on this one. It depends of course on your location and altitude but we've had lying snow here in November in both of the last two winters and before that about 5 years ago when I lived near Bath we had a decent fall on November 7th. 

I was going to point out that Brian lives in the Chilterns. I was referring to lowland southern England where November snow is indeed a rarity; lying snow even more so.

 

I was going to point out that Brian lives in the Chilterns. I was referring to lowland southern England where November snow is indeed a rarity; lying snow even more so.

Some will happily follow ‘mild fever’ without even looking at the output but actually the Atlantic is looking quiet, whether you like it or not.

.... and so it starts, before it starts :-(

 

.... and so it starts, before it starts :-(

Calling it over, before it’s begun is what gets me down.

Not exactly wet and wild on the face of it:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Would you agree that the Atlantic is about to re-awaken from a deep sleep? 

Calling it over, before it’s begun is what gets me down.

Yes but it can quickly go from this state to full "reheat" in a few weeks. Likewise the relationship between snow cover in Scandi / East Europe / Asia and our winter all sounds good on paper but very iffy in reality.

Ensemble for the English midlands - cold for 2 days, then mild for 3 days, then cold for 2 days and after that the uncertainty kicks in at about a week away.  Still clustering around -4 uppers, suggesting a colder phase but not nailed on after 18th, the control goes mild in FI.

The ensembles and other charts imply what I would consider a typical November; a moderately active Atlantic with rainy depressions crossing the UK but not hard on each other's heels, so that there are bursts of cold air from the north and a frosty anticyclone in between. Or, as an Austrian language assistant said to me one November "I don't understand the British weather- when the sun shines it is cold but when the sky is cloudy then it's warm!".

I don't remember significant lowland snow in S England in November ever, though a fairly rare light covering over the Downs has happened from time to time. When we lived in Manchester (now 40 years ago) it seemed that the onset of winter was a regular event in the 3rd week of November when the Snake Pass would be closed by snow.

It continues to look extremely blocked this morning.

Whether we get a northerly (GFS/ECM), or HP moving in from the SE (MetO) it continues to look generally cool to cold.