Nov 96 heavy settling snow right on the south coast. Lasted all day.

Yes - but one event rather backs up my point.

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I was going to point out that Brian lives in the Chilterns. I was referring to lowland southern England where November snow is indeed a rarity; lying snow even more so.

Living in lowland Southern England, this is indeed true. Even the early November 1980 set-up (very cold for the time of year) brought only a few flurries. Snow showers in a similar bitter easterly in 1985 only lay on the frozen puddles, some slush in 1988 for an hour, that's about it here.

 

Back to the models, consistency between the ECM and GFS op at T + 240 this morning- with slight adjustments to the orientation of the high, but the implication- low to the NE and a slight easterly component to the northerly flow. The GEM isn't having any of it- has a cold-ish high on top of us.

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This brought genuinely deep, lying snow one Saturday morning in Nov. 2005 to where I was living, 100m asl, 5 miles south of Taunton:

Even Plymouth got a proper accumulation out of that one.

But it was really marginal (as so many of the best ones seem to be), so I take your point. You had to be right down in Somerset and Devon to get on the right side of the 528 dam line out of that set-up.

Still. Not a million miles from the 192 hrs ECM chart, so, who knows?

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A cold run but at this range the models often prop up highs but in reality they tend to sink. Lets see how this plays out

 

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A cold run but at this range the models often prop up highs but in reality they tend to sink. Lets see how this plays out

 

Indeed.

Long term prospects look undecided as ever but a colder than average theme in the outlook remains on course with the jet on a NW/SE trajectory bringing about a cool/cold NW/N airflow throughout. One thing that’s concerns me with regards to winter proper are events high up in the strat which could scupper thoughts on the longevity of any notable cold spell down the line.

Indeed.

Long term prospects look undecided as ever but a colder than average theme in the outlook remains on course with the jet on a NW/SE trajectory bringing about a cool/cold NW/N airflow throughout. One thing that’s concerns me with regards to winter proper are events high up in the strat which could scupper thoughts on the longevity of any notable cold spell down the line.

Lets see what happens, I was expecting flatter runs this morning but they look pretty amplified and also rather cold .

I think there are numerous factors favouring a negative NAO at the moment, La Nina winters tend to have more blocking early on and the QBO is in a better phase this year.

We don't always need a warm strat to get a cold spell and don't forget the sun is pretty quiet at the moment .

Although the UKMO is at odds with the GFS and ECM.

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Lets see what happens, I was expecting flatter runs this morning but they look pretty amplified and also rather cold .

I think there are numerous factors favouring a negative NAO at the moment, La Nina winters tend to have more blocking early on and the QBO is in a better phase this year.

We don't always need a warm strat to get a cold spell and don't forget the sun is pretty quiet at the moment .

Although the UKMO is at odds with the GFS and ECM.

True, but the strat is still cooling and is presently below normal values at 30hpa. The disconnect between the troposphere and stratosphere won’t last forever with a rapid cooling stratosphere.

Interesting times for sure so early in the season, let's hope we don't peak to early as they say 

The Daily Star is forecasting a freezing December, so that's that then lol. Seriously, some tasty looking charts a bit too far out to get hopes up but the rollercoaster has begun 

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CFS playing catch-up as usual with all the other output.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euT2mMonInd1.gif

For months It’s been hard nosed on a baking November until today.

looks consistent with a Greenland high. 

The NH view of the 6Z GFS is not very inspiring viewing today. Shows the PV reorganising, very low heights over the pole and with high pressure over Europe it would be a very mobile end to November for us

Just one run of course and will probably be all change again on the 12Z.

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This brought genuinely deep, lying snow one Saturday morning in Nov. 2005 to where I was living, 100m asl, 5 miles south of Taunton:

Even Plymouth got a proper accumulation out of that one.

But it was really marginal (as so many of the best ones seem to be), so I take your point. You had to be right down in Somerset and Devon to get on the right side of the 528 dam line out of that set-up.

Still. Not a million miles from the 192 hrs ECM chart, so, who knows?

 

On 25 November 2005 snow brought Cornwall to a stop. 

I remember see photos of surfers coming out of the sea at Newquay and walking on to a snowy beach.

Took me 6 hours to get from Bodmin to St Austell (about 10 miles). 

Sorry o/t

 

Andrew

Watch the 552 500mb line over Greenland- someone (possibly Q) talked about the degree to which that progresses influencing chances of a really cold outbreak over NW Europe.

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It takes something quite remarkable to get snow fallling down here in this micro climate even in January, so to get snow falling and settling in November it would take something exceptional.. I don't see anything exceptional in the makings.

Would you agree that the Atlantic is about to re-awaken from a deep sleep? 

Calling it over, before it’s begun is what gets me down.

Not exactly wet and wild on the face of it:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

 

I wouldn't, no. Not about to but two weeks down the line it might, who knows.

What "gets me down" are the less than constructive accusations of "the hunt for mild" and "mild fever" remarks, none of which were particularly evident in the OP's comments. 

 Certainly looks like a second cold spell of some sort will follow the short mild interlude. At this time of year I will wait till a bit closer before I second guess the weather it brings as looking at the range of solutions there is a lot of uncertainty but it looks on balance that it might last longer than three days 😉.

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The met office maps have updated for November generally milder than average with lower than normal pressure to our north and east

 

 

On 25 November 2005 snow brought Cornwall to a stop. 

I remember see photos of surfers coming out of the sea at Newquay and walking on to a snowy beach.

Took me 6 hours to get from Bodmin to St Austell (about 10 miles). 

Sorry o/t

 

Andrew

Not really off topic, because some of the current dismissal of charts which would otherwise be exciting seems to be based on nothing more than, "well it's November, and it never snows on low land in the South in November, does it?"

It certainly wasn't forecast in 2005, perhaps for that very reason. Though as that chart shows, it was only down in the deep West Country that everything JUST fell into place. Only a bit further north and east and the thicknesses would have been over 528 dam.

But the fact is, if you can build a snowman wearing a Yeovil Town scarf in November, then it shouldn't be discounted anywhere.

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The met office maps have updated for November generally milder than average with lower than normal pressure to our north and east

Could be right but on past performances probbaly not. 😁

The 12z models continue the cool to cold theme and the MetO appears to have backtracked towards the GFS northerly.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

 

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Memorable snow events here in mid-late November here in 1996,2005 and 2010. 

After looking like it might topple, the GFS is a chilly run with a heart shaped High over Greenland/Iceland.

The UKMO still has pressure high over the Baltics at T144 which would not allow the trough to the North of the UK to clear East IMO.

 

 

 

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Memorable snow events here in mid-late November here in 1996,2005 and 2010. 

After looking like it might topple, the GFS is a chilly run with a heart shaped High over Greenland/Iceland.

The UKMO still has pressure high over the Baltics at T144 which would not allow the trough to the North of the UK to clear East IMO.

 

 

 

Don't you mean November 95 Ian?