Don't you mean November 95 Ian?

Ian could be right about November '96 as I recall there being quite a lot of cold weather than month, especially from mid-month onwards. It was also one of the few Novembers when I can recall there being some snow at some point during the month in my arwea. November 1995 I remember as being a mainly mild month; it wasn't until we were a few days into that December when the westher began to turn noticeably colder, at least in my neck of the woods.

Don't you mean November 95 Ian?

No 1996, about 10 hours of snow giving around 6 inches -

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1996/Rrea00119961119.gif

 

 

No 1996, about 10 hours of snow giving around 6 inches -

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1996/Rrea00119961119.gif

 

 

That squares with my recollection. November 1996 was only the second November during which I can clearly recall there being some snowfall during the month in my area. Only previous November when that happened in my part of the world & which I can remember was 1988.

Be interesting to see if the GFS Op and Control's idea of a long spell of chilly/cold weather is right or if GFS is overplaying things again and we'll see the more usual uptick in temps after 2-4 days.

In the reliable chilly and mostly dry down here then milder but not excessively so before cooling down again. With more rain spikes later in the month the Scottish mountains should get some decent snow and Brian might get to add a cool and unsettled November in to his winter LRF mix. Or it might all flatten out and we get to have our first round of 'it'll be zonal for ever' of the autumn/winter - we've had speculation over whether we might get enough cold for snow in the south, so probably about due some zonal runs just to even things out

Everything goes to plan on the 18z GFS 😂😂😂

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_222_1.png

Everything goes to plan on the 18z GFS 😂😂😂

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_222_1.png

 

A sign of the "modern........w***

😉😂😂

I'll get my coat. 😋

The ANTI pub run. We haven't really seen a good old fashioned pub run yet this Autumn.....

A sign of the "modern........w***

 

😉😂😂

 

I'll get my coat. 😋

HAH!

Just one run and all that 😊

The ANTI pub run. We haven't really seen a good old fashioned pub run yet this Autumn.....

A sign of the "modern........w***

 

😉😂😂

 

I'll get my coat. 😋

Do you need a coat in the 'modern winter'?

From the 18z GFS 850 hPa ensembles it looks cold from 17th to about 21st although the Op run is a bit of a mild outlier from just the 19th. After the 21st it's pretty much random +/- 10C. 

On this morning's 0z run, the consensus amongst the GEFS appears to have broken down at the mid range.  Whereas yesterday we had 2 days cold, 3 days mild, then 2 days cold, and then a clustering at -4 uppers, now we have 2 days cold, 3 days mild then mostly 2 cold days, followed by chaos and scatter, with a  case of take your pick between +7 and - 7 uppers. 

From the 18z GFS 850 hPa ensembles it looks cold from 17th to about 21st although the Op run is a bit of a mild outlier from just the 19th. After the 21st it's pretty much random +/- 10C. 

... but a sub-tropical disturbance likely to form and move up just off Biscay at about the 17th

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc

The Fax chart at T+120 picks it up and forecasts a strong run of southerly winds.

Nil desperandum - just keep watching the charts - there will be a different one along tomorrow!

Probably the best ECM run of the season so far. Extremely blocked by day 10 with -10 850s approaching the Faroe islands and already into Germany and Denmark 

 http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

Probably the best ECM run of the season so far. Extremely blocked by day 10 with -10 850s approaching the Faroe islands and already into Germany and Denmark 

 

 http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

 

That looks rather December 2010

Indeed,  that day 10 chart could easily develop to a potent easterly for the UK within a couple of days. 

 

Indeed,  that day 10 chart could easily develop to a potent easterly for the UK within a couple of days. 

Big scatter on the GEFS with northern locations looking colder. Not seen the synoptic but presumably quite a few runs put southern counties under a pizza slice of warmth.

And so we reach the approaching winter status quo. Predicting more than a week ahead means choosing from a random range of 15C in the 850 hPa's ! The good news is that within that the bottom range is at -7C not -2C as we have sometimes seen in previous winters and may still do at times in this.

4 or 5 very cold ensembles on the 6z . The Control gets very close to something special. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=360&mode=1&carte=0

An increase in uncertainty in the last 24 hours with regards to later next weekend. The fly in the ointment is a tropical depression which has formed in the central North Atlantic. Expect quite a few more twist and turns over another few days as this depression will have a big impact on ridging of high pressure to Greenland.

That low in the GFS 06z op at +288hrs certainly looks to be growing an easterly component to its straight edge- suggesting a slider if Q is correct. It's not modelled to slide but it's a long way out. If it even exists by the time we get there, a slide, coupled wth that little Scandi high, would continue the trend to increasingly cold and blocked weather.

 Sorry I don't seem to be able to post links anymore from the charts.