I‘m guessing you haven’t looked at the charts then? 

Things are clear cut until Sunday.

Monday:

ECM  http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_96_1.png

GFS http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_96_1.png 

UKMO http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_96_1.png 

GEM http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPEU12_96_1.png

It’s not my “take” on things, it’s just what the charts show. If there is that much uncertainty 4 days out then 7-10days out is hardly a foregone conclusion. 

I tend to go more by the ensembles and stand by the fact that there is a clear trend up until about the 25th November, especially GFS for several runs but after that I agree about the uncertainty from the start of the  last week of November. I'm perfectly happy to accept that it could change in the short term but the comment reflects what is in front of us now.

ECM 12z ensemble suite for London:

Quite a strong minority cluster goes the cold route on Tuesday and there remain colder options, particularly at the end, but the dominant theme across the 50 members is for a very mild period, trending slightly less mild later.

 

In what way do you think the forecast was wrong? I assume you are choosing to interpret their words in some strange way that ignores what is actually written.

Which rather makes my point, doesn't it.

Think it would now take a big leap of the imagination to believe we're not going in a milder direction. Things could change but it looks like pressure will remain high over Europe for the foreseeable future.  

‘A cold start to winter’ the headline isn’t exactly hard to miss, is it.

Except, and being factually correct, Winter hasn’t actually started yet 😎

The heights across Greenland looking mighty impressive next week, with Iceland and the wide ocean of the N Atlantic seeing a proper early taste of winter. Most of the UK however looks like being on the wrong side of the boundary this time.

Ecm and Meto both bring in colder north westerly winds by next Thursday and with high pressure stretching from the Arctic the Greenland the NH profile is of real interest.

Potential is the word and the chance of cold weather is never going to be far away.

Andy

Ecm and Meto both bring in colder north westerly winds by next Thursday and with high pressure stretching from the Arctic the Greenland the NH profile is of real interest.

Potential is the word and the chance of cold weather is never going to be far away.

Andy

You might well see something wintry in Cumbria, and I'd certainly back the northern half of Scotland for wintry conditions. But GFS and ECM seem to me to have depressions 'threading the needle', slipping between Iceland and John o'Groats and not bringing the cold air south to any extent. I'm not worried - winter weather can wait until January, and the charts have been notably volatile recently.

Personal long-range forecast: heavy snow on 7th January as I'm planning to drive up to Lancashire that day

‘A cold start to winter’ the headline isn’t exactly hard to miss, is it.

Ah, now I understand the problem.  As I keep saying, you have only to read the detail.

Think it would now take a big leap of the imagination to believe we're not going in a milder direction. Things could change but it looks like pressure will remain high over Europe for the foreseeable future.  

 

Exactly the issue. Not so long ago the models were showing energy plunging south east with the high pressure retreating westwards. With high pressure glued in place close to our south there’s no way that the jet stream can take a more southerly track and the result is almost inevitable.

What media interpretation exactly? The daily express/ mail wheel out the same headline every year. Accepting the December section to the initial forecast was wrong shouldn’t be such a hard pill to swallow.

 

Are we now stating that the forecast for December was wrong on November 17? Seems a bit presumptuous.

Incidentally the latest GFS ensemble still shows the mean dropping below average on Dec 1 for London. But as that is right at the end of the output it shows how early it is to make a call about the start of winter. It could be mild, it could be cold. It is still two weeks away. 

Spring like in Lincolnshire on Thursday

Spring like in Lincolnshire on Thursday

 

If the GFS is right of course. 😎

Looking at the ens it might not be far off

So not quite the north easterly or easterly or northerly winds that the models originally predicted and forecasted. - It's all becoming too familiar and I feel that if the models are always wrong like the always have been then is it really worth analysing? - The reason is that the Met Office updates including the BBC Monthly will be wrong as well!?

Look at the temps for middle or next week for instance: - Temps of +12 to +15c widely. HP over France and Spain brining winds up from the Azores. Even have double digit stretching as far north as the low countries like as Denmark.

So not quite the north easterly or easterly or northerly winds that the models originally predicted and forecasted. - It's all becoming too familiar and I feel that if the models are always wrong like the always have been then is it really worth analysing? - The reason is that the Met Office updates including the BBC Monthly will be wrong as well!?

Look at the temps for middle or next week for instance: - Temps of +12 to +15c widely. HP over France and Spain brining winds up from the Azores. Even have double digit stretching as far north as the low countries like as Denmark.

 

To be fair, the forecast Arctic blast was always over a week ahead. That puts it into the uncertain category, particularly without strong cross-model and ensemble support. Plus the evolution looked suspect much of the time with the block just too far west, giving a risk of the upper trough also setting up too far west. Which is what has happened.

There must have been good signals for blocking for the long range forecast to indicate a cold blocked pattern. But if the atmosphere changes then so must the forecast.  I'd love to understand what has changed; clearly it's something the models didn't predict.

 

To be fair, the forecast Arctic blast was always over a week ahead. That puts it into the uncertain category, particularly without strong cross-model and ensemble support. Plus the evolution looked suspect much of the time with the block just too far west, giving a risk of the upper trough also setting up too far west. Which is what has happened.

There must have been good signals for blocking for the long range forecast to indicate a cold blocked pattern. But if the atmosphere changes then so must the forecast.  I'd love to understand what has changed; clearly it's something the models didn't predict.

Well if it's the atmosphere that's changing causing model flips then to be frank it's not really worth watching the models then!? If they are nearly always wrong when it comes to pointing to something colder!? Last winter taught me this or are we just always unlucky!? The Met O went for blocked weather and below average temps, as did BBC MO and watching Gav's weather videos - many models shows a Greenland block stretching down to Iceland and bringing winds in from the north east or north by 3rd week of November and now we flip back to boring zonal cr*p. Once we have a Euro high slug - it will stay there for week's and weeks.

So is this to do with the temperature in the stratosphere that's rapidly cooling?

Something isn't working for us cold weather fans who want to see a decent spell of cold wintry weather and it's frustrating!

The only good news is that it's still November only.

The heights across Greenland looking mighty impressive next week, with Iceland and the wide ocean of the N Atlantic seeing a proper early taste of winter. Most of the UK however looks like being on the wrong side of the boundary this time.

This is a key point. Yes, heights are stubbornly high over Europe - and may remain so, consigning us to a mostly poor winter (although not necessarily so). But with the buildings block of a disintegrated Polar Vortex being supplanted by ridging high pressure, it only needs a lowering of heights across Europe and the cold has a chance to flood south. The Jet taking a southerly track would be a boon (but I'm still unclear as to whether the Jet is a driver or a symptom)

Knowing our luck, though, heights will begin to lower over Europe just as the Polar Vortex wakes up and begins to dominate.

 

Knowing our luck, though, heights will begin to lower over Europe just as the Polar Vortex wakes up and begins to dominate.

 

 

Totally agree with this - we have been so, so unlucky in terms of cold and wintry potential. On the positive side - That being said... - how often would you see a Greenland blocking during the most unsettled time of the year (November) !? Even if we did have a north or north easterly - I doubt it would bring anything wintry or too memorable as it's too early in the season for snow and cold.

I vaguely remember some 2-3" snowfall over the SW end of November 2005 - when I was away. That was memorable.

I have just recently returned from eastern Europe - in Brasov, Bucharest Romania it hit 20c on Sunday and Monday. - Well over 10c above average.

Back on topic - I sense the Atlantic will wake up in December and we will get area's of low pressure coming in with cooler NW'ly incursions as they pass.

  Even if we did have a north or north easterly - I doubt it would bring anything wintry or too memorable as it's too early in the season for snow and cold.

1993 - 21st November, 6 inches of snow IMBY and an ice day, -11C 850s for two whole days.

It's not too early, but it is breathtakingly rare. Clearly this year won't see a repeat, either!