A characteristic of the modern era has been shortwave development and phasing of Low pressure in the Atlantic to maintain the jet stream, it isn't bad luck when it happens over and over again.
Clearly the worst case scenario has come to pass again, a West based NAO that just becomes the normal zonal train as the Greenland heights lessen. Time to hunker down and brace ourselves for us a lengthy period of Atlantic systems with attendant wind and rain.
Looks like the "Winter Is Over" posts are starting to appear already, and we aren't even into the start of the meteorological winter just yet. However, I wouldn't be surprised if this assessment isn't that far from the true reality. We do after all, have a very cold stratosphere which wants to shift everything towards a more zonal and milder pattern and even though there is likely to be some blocking around Greenland in the very near future, it is going to be very difficult for that sort of northern blocking to be sustained for any length of time as long as the stratosphere remains in that current, very cold state.
To me, there is therefore only one way that this is likely to go since that is likely to percolate down into the troposphere eventually which to me, can only really mean a mild and zonal outcome in the end especially if heights continue to remain quite high over France and Iberia as the current model output is suggesting. Of course, I'm not going to make any assumptions here and so, we can't rule out the possibility that the northern blocking might win out and that we get some decent cold weather (this is one scenario where I hope that I am wrong), but that just doesn't look very likely to me.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.