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Seems it Tom ECM 264 would be interesting
ECM improved this morning, not much mild mush on offer, looks a chilly flow
Mild mush for most for four or five days - is this not the extent of what’s reliable? 😉
The extended has gone from a fairly significant signal for mobility to once again more uncertainty.
I’m fairly confident of a switch to a more NWy flow after Neil , but I take your level headed view on board
The ECM ensemble suite has detected another potential evolution in the 12zSuddenly a noticeable cold cluster has reappeared with cold to very cold conditions becoming progressively the dominant grouping by the end and dragging the ensemble mean down from around day 7-8.It confirms the uncertainty in the possible evolution of the pattern over the next week or two.But a mild week ahead seems fairly certain for much of England if not further north. Next weekend onwards may prove to hold some increasing interest.....Or it may all change again....
The ECM ensemble suite has detected another potential evolution in the 12z
Suddenly a noticeable cold cluster has reappeared with cold to very cold conditions becoming progressively the dominant grouping by the end and dragging the ensemble mean down from around day 7-8.
It confirms the uncertainty in the possible evolution of the pattern over the next week or two.
But a mild week ahead seems fairly certain for much of England if not further north. Next weekend onwards may prove to hold some increasing interest.....
Or it may all change again....
This morning's ECM 00z op run is not without interest for sure, Gandalf. It seems to be indicating a more amplified pattern developing once this coming week has passed and, as far as I can tell from what it shows, it would be none too mild for many areas is what ECM shows was to verify.
Interesting times ahead, I feel.
Somewhat of a change of heart across all models this morning, with blocking winning out. Certainly the ECM 240 albeit a long way out is gearing up for a cold North Easterly.
It’s certainly an option. My concern is that all of the energy in the jet stream is in the northern arm. With that solid high pressure belt to the south there’s only one route open and that will put pressure on the block. Looking at the evolution to T+240 I say it will most likely push everything away eastwards - as it stands on this run.
It’s a bit of an open book Marcus given the issues the NWP is having with the fairly stout E-QBO and possibke uncertainties about how the stronger than forecast La Niña is affecting things.
As Olórin (to use the original Quenya) says, it’ll take a lot to budge the stubborn Euro high and allow the HLB to predominate, but you never know.
Possible snow event for some in 6 days
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=2
Possible snow event for some in 6 dayshttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=2
Yes I was just looking at that. Possible back edge snow on Saturday but those are always very hit and miss (usually miss!)
ECM doesn't seem to develop that secondary low at all.
GFS control. Problem is the eye candy is always at long range - like a mirage that disappears. I expect this will be another phantom cold spell.
A lot of talk about blocking but quite a few runs are actually very progressive with disturbances pushing through cleanly and short lived colder incursions from the northwest developing. Possibly the sort of pattern IRI and Jamstec are teeing up for the winter.
Mild for the reliable timeframe then some consensus across models for a cool down. Further out and more eye candy in FI. All pretty normal for the early transition into winter.
That very much depends where you are located Jason. It looks largely colder than average in northernmost parts and largely milder than average for most southern and central parts. This is confirmed by both anomaly maps and the Met Office outlook (so again as one or two would try to insinuate, it’s not my take it’s what the models show, and should know I have spend enough years/decades looking at them! )
Further down the line as others mention there is no shortage of the usual jam tomorrow eye candy.
@Neil , it does seem the Euro high is the killer very little PV to worry about and we get the Euro High which scuppers what potentially could be a very good set up
Not just a Euro high though: any high pressure close to the south prevents cold air penetrating down through the whole country and prevents the jet taking a southerly track.
ECM 00z ensemble suite has twitched again....
The dip to colder conditions signalled by the Op is well supported by the ensemble set. Beyond day 8 the clustering of cold runs has lessened compared with yesterday's 12z.
The odds are shortening on next weekend being cold but with growing uncertainty about what happens from Monday/Tuesday next week.
Well 12z GFS was a cold one, wonder where it will sit in the ensembles. Marginal differences in the great scheme of things make quite an impact. Martin
Indeed. I think the ECM 12z this evening plus the runs over the coming days will make for interesting viewing.
Indeed. It's a bit of a slow burner this year David, but I remain very positive about our prospects. Zonal train it a'int....hasn't looked that way for some time. This is vastly different to what we have been witnessing in the last few years. Interesting signals still.
This is the model thread, not the annoying winter terminology thread
On a serious note, I agree that it is one to watch with lots of potential. More runs needed before we prepare for the big freeze