Just run the numbers again this evening. Now getting a final CET to 31 July of 17.85C. Creeping closer to that 18C figure.

Sounds good to me ! 

A quick check of the GFS output this morning would send us on course for something like 18.2c. 

Just run the numbers again this evening. Now getting a final CET to 31 July of 17.85C. Creeping closer to that 18C figure.

Sounds good to me ! 

A quick check of the GFS output this morning would send us on course for something like 18.2c. 

When four out of the top six Julys regularly appear in the analogues, you sit up and take notice - I ddn't sit up straight enough.

Met Office Hadley      16.9c.    Anomaly     1.0c.  Provisional to  17th.

Metcheck                  17.16c.  Anomaly     0.69c.

N-W                         17.52c.  Anomaly     1.03c.

Mount Sorrel             17.29c.  Anomaly     0.29c.

My Mean                   18.3c.    Anomaly    1.7c.

Maxes in the CET sites today were all mid to upper 20s and Rothamsted was 30C, so I think the official CET should take a bit of a leap overnight.

I estimate a CET today of 20.82C. First 20C+ CET of the year. We could see a few more of these in the second half of next week.

Looking at the latest output this evening I still get a final CET of 17.85C. It will take something very special indeed to get us to 18C by the end of the month.

Maybe only a slight rise again looking at sites as they stand... Lunch time  we shall know..

Met Office Hadley       17.1c.     Anomaly      1.2c.       Provisional to  18th.

Metcheck                   17.40c.    Anomaly     0.94c.

N-W                           17.76c.   Anomaly     1.27c.

Mount Sorrel              17.56c.    Anomaly     1.06c.

My Mean                    18.5c      Anomaly      - 1.5c. 

The CET exceeded 20C again today. My CET estimate for July up to today has now moved through 17C to stand at 17.01C

Latest estimate for the final July CET is 17.90C

Just taking a quick look at the pattern matching for the August CET.

If we look at years with a June - July CET combination of between 16C and 17C (2014 should come in around 16.5C) there are a lot of matches. So if I then take those years where the May CET was also at least 11.6C there are 9 matches since 1900.

Of these 9 all bar one had an August CET at or above the 1971-2000 mean. The breakdown is as follows:

1982 15.7C
2005 16.2C
1989 16.6C
1959 17.2C
1933 17.6C
1911 18.2C
2003 18.3C
1947 18.6C
1995 19.2C

There are 6 years where the August CET was more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean and some of them were very warm indeed. So very crudely that would suggest we have about a 2 in 3 chance (67%) of August 2014 continuing the trend of warm months more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean.

What a year this is turning out to be so far. Will it keep going right through to the end of the year?

Thanks GW.

We've not had an 18c+ August since 2003, but I have a feeling 2014 will change that.

Many of the years in your list had mostly fine and very warm September's as well I think.

Past couple of nights I have had minimums above 18C.

The CET must have taken one heck of a leap this past couple of days.

Met Office Hadley      17.3c.     Anomaly    1.4c.   provisional to  19th.

Metcheck                  17.52c.   Anomaly    1.06c.

N-W                         17.9c.     Anomaly     1.41c.

Mount Sorrel             17.65c.   Anomaly     1.15c.

My Mean                    18.5c.   Anomaly      -1.5c.       

 

Met Office Hadley      17.3c.     Anomaly    1.4c.   provisional to  19th.

Metcheck                  17.52c.   Anomaly    1.06c.

N-W                         17.9c.     Anomaly     1.41c.

Mount Sorrel             17.65c.   Anomaly     1.15c.

My Mean                    18.5c.   Anomaly      -1.5c.       

 

My guess fwiw - Is we'll be on 18C at the end of this week.

The CFS outlook for the next few months seems to want to follow something loosely along the lines of 2003 for August, but then the signal gets a bit vague across the UK for September... however it hints at the mean trough being around Iceland, which tends to bring above average temperatures to our shores.

October shows signs of the same Azores Ridge/Scandi Block setup as we look to have developing for next week... another warm signal for the first half at least.

2014 could be leaps and bounds ahead of all other years for the annual CET if we do see something along the CFS lines 

IF

N-W on 18c. at the moment. may go a little higher around lunchtime.

Met Office Hadley   17.4c.   Anomaly    1.4c. Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck              17.58c.  Anomaly    1.12c.

N-W                     18.00c.  Anomaly     1.31c.

Mount Sorrel         17.77c.  Anomaly     1.27c.

My Mean              18.5c.    Anomaly     -1.5c.

IMBY 13.9c

mean min 8.0c

mean max 19.9c

Latest output still suggests a final CET of about 17.85C. This is largely due to a slight cooling off from next Monday. If we could maintain the heat expected from this Wednesday right through to the end of the month then we could still just hit 18C. But it does seem likely there will be a brief cooler period early next period, a bit like what we saw today. Still above average but just not enough to get us to 18C. It will be touch and go but I think at the moment it looks like we will fall just short. Probably 17.9C. Still time for things to change though.

Met Office Hadley   17.5c.   Anomaly  1.5c.  Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck               17.66c. Anomaly   1.19c.

N-W                      18.9c.   Anomaly   1.6c.

Mount Sorrel          17.85c.  Anomaly  1.35c.

My Mean                18.7c.    Anomaly  -1.3c.

As it is at the MOMENT.....

Metcheck       17.2c.     Anomaly 1.26c

N-W              18.6c.     Anomaly 1.67c.

Mount Sorrel  17.94c.   Anomaly 1.44c

  The above figures are updated every hour so could change during the course of the day..

My Mean 18.8c.  Anomaly   -1.2c.   2013 Mean was 20.00c.

My Annual  is reading     11.3c  Anomaly 5.6c.

Will be out today visiting relations..... so Hadley will come later from someone..