June marked the sixth consecutive month with a CET more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean. The only other year in which this has happened in the first six months of the year was 2007. Of course we know what happened in July and August that year. It was not good!

Fortunately there is no sign that this year will repeat the 2007 trend. Yes the end of June is rather cooler and next weekend and for a few days beyond also look cool. But the start of July should be very warm and the warm conditions may well return towards the end of the second week of the month. That said it seems most unlikely at this point that the CET will get anywhere near the figure we saw last July  

Please post your July CET predictions in this thread. The deadline for entries without incurring any penalty is 23:59 on Monday evening (30th). However, entries will be accepted up to 23:59 on 2 July.

July historic data summary

Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.

Only three of the last 10 July's have been above average including 2013 at 18.3C and 2006 with a record 19.7C. 2011 and 2012 both failed to get above 15.5C.

Long run averages:
1971-2000: 16.5C
1981-2010: 16.7C
1989-2013: 16.8C

Here is a chart of the July CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average

 

Here are some details of what the models and forecasters generally are saying at the moment.

GEFS (850 and 2m temps)
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png
Very average looking charts

ECM(De Bilt) maximum and minimum temps
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=00&type=tx
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=00&type=tn
Apart from a couple of warmer days looks somewhat on the cool side

Met office
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
Contingency Planners forecast not yet available
Fairly unsettled and "unpleasant" at times with temperatures generally no better than average

Pattern matching (just for fun)

Looking at years with mean 2 month temperatures for May and June similar to 2014 there is no obvious pattern. Looking at the 4 month period from March to June the same is true. There are 12 years since 1900 with a March to June CET greater than 10.9C. Of these 4 had a July well below average with a CET between 15C and 15.5C, 4 had a July CET close to average and 4 had a CET around 1C above average. So no pattern whatsoever there. It is equaly likely to be average, warm or cool.

First look at the July CET tracker

According to the Hadley CET we need the rest of 2014 to be 0.84C above the 61-90 average to hit the annual record, so purely for that reason I'm opting for July to be 0.84C above 61-90 mean: 16.84C.

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Don't think we'll have a repeat of last year, but still expecting a warm month, so let's say 17.0 provisionally.

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17.0 for me please

Yes indeed, it would be nice to see a new record for the annual CET and I think this year may well do that, or come very close.  Although right now it doesn't feel like midsummer, we all know how quickly the weather can change and I think July could make it the 7th consecutive above average month.

I'm going to go for 17.2c 

Thanks!

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16.75c for me please

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17.8c. For me please.

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I'll go for 16.5C please

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17.01c please

I'll go for 17.3c. Thanks.

17.27c thanks

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16.3

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Maybe no mega heatwave, but nothing cold either ....

So 17.2c for me please

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16.6 for me please

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Don`t think ts going to be anything like last year but pleasant enough

so 16.6 for me please

Think I'll go for the safe option and say 17.1 

 

 

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I'll go for 16.5C.

Gut feeling fwiw is that this might be a bit of a disappointment this July.

 

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17.3c please GW

17.4C please 

16.2c for me thanks.

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Gary