Met Office Hadley       16.4c.        Anomaly       0.6c.        provisional to  11th.

Metcheck                  16.48c.       Anomaly      -0.02c.

N-W                         16.91c.        Anomaly      0.42c. 

Mount Sorrel             16.58c.        Anomaly      0.08c.

My Mean                   17.5c.         Anomaly      - 2.5c       

           

   

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Well it has in fact been a slightly cooler than average start to July. As ever the Hadley provisional figures are way too high. As of the 11th my mean was only 15.99C compared to the Hadley figure of 16.43C so quite a difference.

Yesterday's warm weather bumped up the CET significantly. Today will be another warm day particularly due to the very high minimums this morning. Tomorrow looks cooler but then we can expect the warmest spell of the year so far with the CET likely to exceed 20C on both Thursday and Friday. Even after the breakdown next weekend the CET should remain slightly above average with the mean for the month levelling off at that point.

So by the 26th I currently expect the CET to be around 17.2C which is much cooler than this time last year but still would at that point be more than 0.8C above the 1971-2000 mean. So after a fairly average start to the month we are looking at another significantly above average month by the time we get to the end.

If the July CET does finish around 17.2C then 2014 will comfortably have the warmest first seven months of the year on record. The warmest first seven months of the year in the CET series are:

2014 10.66C (prov.)
1846 10.55C
2007 10.52C
1990 10.50C
1733 10.50C
1868 10.43C

The way things are going at the moment there has to be a very good chance of seeing the first ever 11+C CET mean this year.

Met Office Hadley            16.6c.      Anomaly      0.8c.   Provisional to  12th.

Metcheck                        16.73c.    Anomaly      0.26c.

N-W                               17.08c.    Anomaly      0.59c.

Mount Sorrel                   16.92c.    Anomaly      0.42c.

My Mean                         17.8c.     Anomaly      -2.2c.

     

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Met Office Hadley         16.7c.     Anomaly       0.8c.     Provisional to 13th

 Metcheck                    16.68c.   Anomaly       0.22c

N-W                            17.15c.   Anomaly       0.66c.

Mont Sorrel                  16.87c.   Anomaly       0.37c.

My Mean                      17.80c.   Anomaly      -2.2c.     

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IMBY

Mean 13.3c

Mean min 7.2c

Mean max 19.4c

Max 24.8c, min 2.7c

 

Met Office Hadley  16.7c.   Anomaly 0.8c. Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck              16.79c.  Anomaly  0.32c.

N-W                     17.15c   Anomaly  0.66c.

Mount Sorrel         16.99c.  Anomaly  0.49c.

My Mean               17.9c.   Anomaly   2.1c.  

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Not much Change from Hadley the last few days...

Met Office Hadley    16.7c.      Anomaly      0.8c.   Provisional to  15th.

Metcheck                16.82c.    Anomaly      0.36c.

N-W                       17.24c.    Anomaly      0.75c.

Mount Sorrel           16.95c.    Anomaly      0.45c.

My  Mean                18.0c.      Anomaly      2.0c.

   

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Others creeping up, which hopefully means less of a downward adjustment at the end of the month.

Next few days should see quite a jump in the numbers.

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Well it has in fact been a slightly cooler than average start to July. As ever the Hadley provisional figures are way too high. As of the 11th my mean was only 15.99C compared to the Hadley figure of 16.43C so quite a difference.

Yesterday's warm weather bumped up the CET significantly. Today will be another warm day particularly due to the very high minimums this morning. Tomorrow looks cooler but then we can expect the warmest spell of the year so far with the CET likely to exceed 20C on both Thursday and Friday. Even after the breakdown next weekend the CET should remain slightly above average with the mean for the month levelling off at that point.

So by the 26th I currently expect the CET to be around 17.2C which is much cooler than this time last year but still would at that point be more than 0.8C above the 1971-2000 mean. So after a fairly average start to the month we are looking at another significantly above average month by the time we get to the end.

If the July CET does finish around 17.2C then 2014 will comfortably have the warmest first seven months of the year on record. The warmest first seven months of the year in the CET series are:

2014 10.66C (prov.)
1846 10.55C
2007 10.52C
1990 10.50C
1733 10.50C
1868 10.43C

The way things are going at the moment there has to be a very good chance of seeing the first ever 11+C CET mean this year.

Thanks GW.

2014 certainly turning into a remarkable year! How long ago it now seem's since we had that cold year in 2010... Of course, what's even more amazing is that this shocking warm period started 12 months ago now in July 2013 (I know September and November 2013 were a bit cool, but overall we've already had a year of incredibly consistent warmth)

An 11c CET calander year for the first time in the CET record will get some headlines.

I wonder how much longer the 2013/2014 mega warm spell has to run? Obviously it can't go on indefinetely, but I reakon theres more to come yet.

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Think its fair to say that I'm going to loose my third place in the competition, called this month wrong, thought warmth would be a blip and cooler end to month

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Im feeling more optimistic with something above 17.5 a distinct possibility.

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The CET doesn't reflect the temperatures we've been getting here as it's been lovely so far this month.  Shorts and strappy tops during the day and windows and doors open at night.  So, I'm surprised it hasn't already gone above my 17.2 guess, though I think it will before long. 

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Could be on course for first "back to back" 18c+ July's since 1994/1995?

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My CET estimate is now just above average for July standing at 16.40C to the 16th compared to the 1971-2000 mean of 16.28C to the same date.

The CET is only going in one direction from here though. For example the current forecast mean temperature at Pershore for the 17th-30th inclusive is exactly 20C.

I am now expecting the CET to reach 17.73C by the 30th which is 1.27C above the 1971-2000 mean. So the very warm theme for 2014 continues. I think it is unlikely we will reach 18C but it is not impossible.

 

Met Office Hadley       16.7c.    Anomaly    0.8c.   Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                   16.96c.  Anomaly    0.56c.

N-W                           17.34c. Anomaly    0.85c.

Mount  Sorrel              17.9c   Anomaly    0.59c.

My Mean                     18.1c.  Anomaly    1.9c.  

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It's been stuck on 16.7 since the 14th. In the same period the Metcheck one has gone up by almost 0.3C. It's an odd situation, unless they are getting their monthly downward adjustment out of the way now rather than on the 31st.

Considering it was 25-26C widely yesterday with the previous night's lows in the low teens across South and Central England it seems very odd we are still running at only 16.7C.

In any case today will definitely bump things up.

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Metcheck now on 17.05c. Anomaly 0.59c.

 

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My CET estimate is now just above average for July standing at 16.40C to the 16th compared to the 1971-2000 mean of 16.28C to the same date.

The CET is only going in one direction from here though. For example the current forecast mean temperature at Pershore for the 17th-30th inclusive is exactly 20C.

I am now expecting the CET to reach 17.73C by the 30th which is 1.27C above the 1971-2000 mean. So the very warm theme for 2014 continues. I think it is unlikely we will reach 18C but it is not impossible.

 

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Just run the numbers again this evening. Now getting a final CET to 31 July of 17.85C. Creeping closer to that 18C figure.

Just run the numbers again this evening. Now getting a final CET to 31 July of 17.85C. Creeping closer to that 18C figure.

Phew and that in my view comprises of a very good July.

 

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