Ok. Let's hopefully put this morning's output into perspective.
Hi everyone. Here is my morning take on the latest 00z outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday August 2013 2013.
The General Situation. All models show the UK under a slack flow of winds today and through until later on Thursday. While not drastically unstable the air will have enough instability aloft to promote some shower growth, especially tomorrow when some heavy and slow moving showers are possible almost anywhere. On Friday a front associated to Low pressure well to the NW will cross East through the day with a spell of rain and drizzle for most before a WNW flow brings a return to sunny spells and scattered showers on Saturday with most of the showers in the North. Temperatures look like staying in the average levels between 17C-23C Northwest to Southeast through the week.
GFS then shows another very weak front crossing SE on Sunday followed by a ridge of High pressure which relaxes South towards Southern Britain only by midweek with winder and more unsettled weather reaching the North by midweek. After a little rain on Sunday the South could become bright and quite warm for a few days early next week. Through the second half of the run the weather remains rather breezy and changeable with some rain or showers for all at times, the heavier rain most likely in the North closest to Low pressure crossing East but extending to the South too at times in temperatures never very far from the mid August averages listed above.
The GFS Ensembles show a changeable pattern this morning which never moves towards anything very warm. In fact a more Northerly incursion shown by some members to end the run could make it feel rather Autumnal as uppers fall below average right at the end. Despite these rather indifferent temperature profiles it never looks overly wet in the South with most of the rainfall in the North, though some will reach the South at times especially later.
The Jet Stream profile to support this outcome shows that the UK remains it's transit stop on it's way to Europe for the foreseeable future. There are peaks and troughs shown in the flow above or to the South of the UK giving windows of brighter warmer weather between the cooler and more changeable periods.
UKMO today shows Low pressure over Scotland next Monday with a showery West or NW flow over the UK. Temperatures would be close to average with some chilly nights. A mix of sunshine and showers look the most likely weather type with showers most likely towards Northern and Western coasts overnight and inland through the day when some could be heavy and thundery. In among this though some bright dry and warm feeling spells of sunshine would also be likely.
GEM today also wants to bring a cooler NW feed of air down over the UK early next week. It may be interrupted at times by slightly warmer winds that temporarily back SW in the South before a renewed surge of NW'lies are shown to end the run which generally looks more unsettled by then with occasional rain becoming more frequent across all areas and not just the North by the end of the run.
NAVGEM too supports a NW feed of cooler air as we move into next week with High pressure down to the SW and Low pressure to the North. Sunshine and showers looks the odds on weather type though there wouldn't be many showers in the South with most in the North where the coolest temperatures would also be felt in the fresh breeze.
ECM today shows a NW flow early next week following Sundays trough SE. There would be plenty of dry and bright weather across the South if not very warm in a cool breeze. The North would be more prone to showers in a somewhat stronger NW wind. The NW flow is shown to weaken midweek when it would probably feel warmer for a time, especially in the South as winds back SW. Later a more marked turn to rather changeable weather looks likely as Low pressure to the North spreads it's influence to affect all of the UK by the weekend with rain at times and blustery Westerly winds and temperatures close to average.
In Summary this morning it looks as though after the benign conditions of this week things could remain much the same next week with the UK never particularly close to any particular weather feature 'Low' or 'High' for it to gain overall control. The source of air largely from the NW will never make it excitingly warm with average temperatures for most places on most days, though a few warmer slots are possible in the South at times. Rainfall will be more concentrated towards the North closest to Atlantic troughs passing by while some parts of the South could see very little rain over the period. However, there are signs from the longer term models that things could turn more Nationally unsettled by mid month with more appreciable rain at times for all in a basically Westerly setup. Unfortunately there doesn't appear to be anything very warm and settled likely on a Nationwide basis such as the July heatwave delivered anytime soon as the Azores High seems content to stay well to the SW of the UK.
Edited by user
06 August 2013 07:53:28
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Reason: Not specified
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset