Good evening folks. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday August 5th 2013.
The General Situation. A complex Low pressure area over the UK will clear away NE overnight leaving a weak ridge of High pressure to develop over the UK tomorrow. The weather will be dry and clear after the clearance of rain and showers tonight and bright and largely dry tomorrow apart from the odd shower. Through Wednesday and Thursday the weather will be set fair, still with the chance of a shower, perhaps heavy on Wednesday. By Friday the weather will slide downhill briefly with a front bringing some rain East across the UK on through the day with Saturday returning to dry and fine weather in the South when it will become quite warm in light winds.
GFS then shows a trough sliding ESE over the UK on Friday introducing NW winds and showers to start the new week with the showers chiefly in the North and East and rather cooler conditions for all. Then through the latter stages of the week the weather becomes more organised unsettled with rain and showers in association with Low pressure to the North but some drier and brighter conditions likely for all too as brief ridges pass by.
The GFS Ensembles tonight show a disappointing run with regard to temperature with average conditions at best shown by most members. Rainfall looks reasonably small in amount for the South while the North sees more copious rain at times under influence of Atlantic Low pressure to the North.
The Jet Stream shows the flow remaining in the vicinity of the UK over the next few weeks. It will be in an undulating form over Week 1 before settling into a more direct West to East flow over the UK for Week 2.
UKMO tonight shows Low pressure tumbling down from the NW on Sunday with a band of rain Saturday night followed by sunshine and heavy showers for Sunday.
GEM shows a front crossing SE over the UK on Sunday with some rain follwoed by bright weather under NW winds and scattered showers most likely for the North and NW. it would become cooler and fresher everywhere.
NAVGEM tonight keeps a High pressure ridge close to the South throughout the latter stages of it's run tonight with a spell of light rain on Sunday quickly being replaced by bright and dry weather with any rain restricted to more Northern parts of the UK. Temperatures look to be comfortable for many, perhaps bordering rather warm at times in the South.
ECM tonight is not too bad for the South with the Sunday rain clearing away to leave Southern areas at least with a fine few days with sunny spells and comfortably warm conditions if never overly warm. The North looks like staying rather breezier, cooler and more unsettled with some showers or rain at times. By the end of the run though things do turn more generally disturbed as Low pressure trundles in from the WNW with rain and windier weather for all with average at best temperatures.
In Summary the models tonight aren't too bad overall with High pressure relatively close to the South or SW with the South at least reaping the benefits of this with pleasantly dry and fine conditions with some warm sunshine at times and only very occasional rain. Further North there looks to be more in the way of cooler and more unsettled conditions with rain at times with a trend towards this spreading more generally across the UK from around 10 days time
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset