Truly awful output. Nothing remotely interesting or pleasant on the horizon. Not a single sunny day so far this month and, not only is there no sign of one in the output, but I see the potential for some horrendously wet weather as if there hasn't been enough this year.

The red shading is back on the precipitation outlook

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

Seems this month is determined to out do 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2011, 2013 and 2014 in being as undesirable an October as is possible to get 

Followed by a very mild winter and arguably the start of the "modern winter" (copyright Mr I Brown)

Hmmmm....The 18z is a classic "pub run" as Ophelia gives us a direct hit. Shocking GFS at 144-156 hrs. Hope this is way off the mark as it looks scary.

Most of the GEFS have Ophelia hitting Ireland so looks like a near miss for us, but still plenty of time for that to change

Bear in mind very vigorous depressions have hit us before. Hurricane winds, in themselves, are very rare but not unprecedented. However if the GFS plays out as suggested we will make meterological history. A hurricane hitting the UK is unbelievably rare and being alive to see that would be something.

I should emphasise the Michael fish storm was not tropical it was just very strong.

Rare? Sorry, but it’s impossible. Utter nonsense. Call it what you like, but it wouldn’t be a hurricane. 

I’ll let Nathan Rao know you’re interested in an interview though. 

No it isn't impossible, in my view its rarity is just so high you wouldn't expect to see it in any one lifetime. But there have been European landfall near misses. Take a look at this thread where I documented the closest examples we have including the infamous Hurricane Debbie.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=18107

All shifted well west again this morning with a glancing blow west of Ireland pulling up warmth from the south for most of us.

No that thing was a legit hurricane. It was warm cored, axis symmetric and had no well defined fronts; it had not yet undergone its transition.

Now obviously I do not expect that 18Z run to verify, but it really was a bonefied hurricane being shown.

That wasn’t what you said. You said we’d be making history and that a hurricane hitting the UK is extremely rare, NOT that it was or has ever been a hurricane. That’s like saying tropical developments form in the tropics. Bloody obvious. 

The waters around the UK cannot support a hurricane. It’s a simple as that. 

No I didn't read the post you quoted.

"Bear in mind very vigorous depressions have hit us before. Hurricane winds, in themselves, are very rare but not unprecedented. However if the GFS plays out as suggested we will make meterological history. A hurricane hitting the UK is unbelievably rare and being alive to see that would be something.

I should emphasise the Michael fish storm was not tropical it was just very strong."

"Hurricane winds, in themselves, are very rare but not unprecedented."

Hurricane winds doesn't mean a hurricane. Its just 12 on the beaufort scale, and yes they do occasionally happen in the UK in extratropical systems. It should be quite clear that I was deliberately making the distinction here between hurricane force winds in extratropical storms and actual hurricanes.

"However if the GFS plays out as suggested we will make meterological history."

Notice how I used the word if? I Never claimed the 18Z run would verify. But if it did then it would be making meteorological history as a UK landfall has never happened before (aside from the dubious case of Debbie).      

Also tropical systems do form outside of the tropics. A tropical cyclone has a very specific meaning which has to do with the physical processes governing its intensification and development, not its latitude. Tropical cyclones do form in the subtropics, for example. Ophelia is actually an example of that.          

Merely stating 'the waters cannot support Hurricanes' is crude. Yes to all intents and purposes this is true, but just because it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean it is literally impossible. I think I gave quite good evidence in the europe landfall thread that such an occurrence could happen it is just unbelievably rare.

In fairness, the waters where Hurricane Vince formed in 2005 shouldn't have been warm enough to support tropical development of any kind, let alone enough that it actually made landfall in Spain as a tropical depression, but there you go.

Of course, waters around Spain are warmer, but still much colder than what is required for tropical development (usually).

It's important to keep in mind that Hurricane Debbie in 1961 was still a fully-fledged Category 1 hurricane just off the coast of Western Ireland. That alone is enough proof that a hurricane could make landfall in the UK, theoretically speaking. Hurricanes have also made landfall in Newfoundland even though the waters there regularly have icebergs floating by.

Indeed. I would urge people to look at this thread

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=18107

where I set out my thesis for the 'European hurricane'

We know the SST requirement of 26.5C is limited and only really applies for low latitude systems. At higher latitudes SSTs can be much lower due to a colder upper troposphere. This is why Medicanes and NE atlantic storms alike are capable of forming in cold water and out of season (indeed NE atlantic storms are arguably more likely to form out of season than in season). The real killer is wind shear but firstly it takes time to kill a tropical cyclone (that's how faith got so far north) and secondly wind shear is much less harsh in the E atlantic than the W atlantic. The conditions imagined by the 18Z run last night were basically perfect and exactly what you needed for a UK landfall.

The 1987 storm was obviously not tropical but I remember it was so warm and muggy before the winds came, it felt like you could be in Florida

Similar thing with Ophelia which is more genuinely tropically, not that it really matters technically

Two most popular scenarios and resultant max temperature potential to consider now for Monday; one where Ophelia passes to the west as an intense storm during the middle of Monday (00z and 06z GFS plus 00z ECM; 06z GFS as example above-left) and the other where Ophelia tracks across W. UK late Monday or overnight into Tuesday as a weaker (but still capable of bringing 60+ mph gusts) system (18z  GFS, shown above-right).

The former is by far the favourite among the models at the moment and looks to focus the highest temps across East Anglia where date records could fall across quite a wide area. The latter allows for more widespread warmth but perhaps a lower peak UK value. 

Seeing the mid-20s away from a region dependent on orographic effects (warming of air moving down slopes from high terrain) would be quite something for mid-October.

... oh and if a storm moves over the UK landmass while retaining a warm core as a result of vertical instability remaining sufficient to counter lower sea surface temperatures and wind shear staying low enough, such as the 18z GFS showed, then yes, it will technically be a tropical cyclone making landfall in the UK. It requires a lot to come together just right but it's not out of the question. An outside chance, if you like.

TCs are called tropical because most of them occur in the tropics, not because all of them must do so .

Give it a few more years of Global Warming and....

If Hurricane Faith managed to stay tropical NE of the Faroe Islands then in theory the UK could get hit by a tropical system/hurricane. As said above, of course, such an event is extremely rare.

I has been mentioned - spooky timing

Michael Fish's Hurricane 30 years late!

This evening's GFS has 25-26C in the east on Monday. Since it often undercooks temperatures, you could maybe push that slightly higher. Imagine 80F on 16 October?!

I've found GFS to be overcooking temperatures in the last month or so.  Maybe my imagination - anyone else noticed it?

ECM take on Ophelia

GFS pert 19 looks tasty!