Good morning everyone. Here is the latest instalment of the output issued by the NWP at midnight on Sunday February 9th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show Low pressure over Northern Scotland filling slowly with the strong Westerly flow weakening steadily with the attendant showers becoming less frequent and heavy than through the recent days. Through tonight an tomorrow Low pressure to the South makes for very slack winds across the UK with some showers still, possibly wintry over the hills but some dry, bright weather too. By Tuesday an active trough crosses East with more heavy rain, strong winds and hill snow in the North followed by a cold and showery westerly flow on Wednesday, strong again with gales in the west and snow showers over the hills.
GFS then shows that on Thursday a further vigorous depression is expected to cross East over the heart of the UK with gales and heavy rain with showers on Friday and another strong depression next weekend with yet more rain and gales. Through the lower resolution part of the run this morning's operational shows that further Low pressure brings further rain at times but then a switch to colder, drier weather is shown as pressure rises, eventually strongest to the NE but this prevents much improvement lasting long in the SW as Low pressure troughs buffers the block to the NE with further rain and perhaps snow.
The GFS Ensembles show reasonable support for a lessening in the rain amounts through the second half of the run though most members continue to show some while the colder operational run is a little isolated with most members preferring to show pressure rises from the South more likely to be responsible for the lessening rainfall with milder air.
UKMO today shows next weekend with Low pressure positioned over Southern England with plenty of unsettled weather around with rain, prolonged at heavy at times over all areas in temperatures close to or somewhat below normal especially in the North.
GEM also has Low pressure over Southern Britain next weekend with rain and showers revolving around it affecting all areas with more rain and showers and perhaps snow on hills. Through the remainder of the run the Low fills but is replaced by yet another centre down near the SW at the end of the run with further rain and showers, once more most prolific towards the South and West.
NAVGEM today also shows Low pressure well in control later in the week and next weekend with pressure trying to recover from the South, seemingly in vain as further fronts to the West supercede it in it's quest bringing more rain East over the UK in Westerly winds and average temperatures.
ECM today does show an improvement of sorts after next weekend as the fronts and Lows move further North still bringing rain at times for a while but as we move deeper into next week a drier period looks likely as High pressure over France promotes a drier interlude. It doesn't look like lasting long though as Low pressure in the Atlantic may push this drier weather towards the NE while Low pressure moves SE towards the SW bringing a return to rain to these areas soon after termination of the run.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts this morning show broad support for a pressure rise to be achieved from the South just over a week from now. With probable pressure approaching 1020mbs across the South it may not be quite enough to erradicate rain bearing fronts entirely down here with even less chance towards the North as Low pressure is likely to lie somewhere to the NW but it could well slow the amounts of rain substantially to at least commence the chance of some draining of flood waters in afflicted parts of the South. Within this pattern temperatures could be rising too as winds remain lighter and from the SW.
The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow unchanged over the next week before it weakens and buckles North across the UK with perhaps more of a NE fow across the UK or to the NW late in the output.
In Summary today there remains reasonable support for marginal improvements to begin to take shape in just over a week's time as the procession of deep Low's crashing into the UK is pushed further North by a Jet Stream weakening and changing the orientation of it's flow NE to allow pressure rises to take shape from the South. In the mean time this week will produce many more headaches as further heavy rain, gales and even snow could all give problems at times. The weather will likely become drier if not entirely dry with some sunshine and temperatures recovering to average or perhaps slightly above. This improvement being quite a way out is not a done deal and there are still likely to be changes in the projections good or bad through the outputs of the upcoming week.
Yes, I think we can finally see the light at the end of this dark and dismal tunnel ! Personally I'd even settle for a prolonged visit from Uncie Barty at this stage - he'd certainly help dry things out in the West country.