Good morning. Here is today's look at the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday February 10th 2014 and lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models agree on the basic sequence of events over the coming working week with today likely to be the best of the weather. A weak westerly or NW flow lies across the UK with a weak trough in the SE giving some light rain and showery troughs near the West giving some wintry showers but with a lot of dry and bright weather too. Tonight and tomorrow shows an active trough sweeping East with gales and rain clearing to wintry showers for all tomorrow in a blustery west wind. Showers on Wednesday then give way to a spell of potentially stormy weather late Wednesday and into Thursday with very heavy rain, snow on Northern hills and once more followed by wintry showers from the West. Late in the week a repeat performance looks likely as we reach the weekend.
GFS then shows next weekend as a cold and showery one with wintry showers for many with snow on hills in the North accumulating in places. Early next week a new Low brings more prolonged rain and snow across the South followed by a more coherent spell of dry weather with frosty nights and bright days for a day or two. Then to end the run Atlantic wind and rains return in a blustery WSW flow with Low pressure areas to the North moving East.
The GFS Ensembles show little encouragement for those looking for dry or indeed deeply colder weather as all indications point to more unsettled weather with rain at times and temperatures eventually back to very average values in mostly Westerly winds.
UKMO today has a cold NW flow across the British Isles with sunshine and wintry showers across the UK next Sunday, especially in the North and West before a brief ridge approaches from the West later with a short drier interlude and perhaps a frost next Sunday night.
GEM today is broadly similar to UKMO for next Sunday with a showery NW flow giving way to a ridge of High pressure from the West before more Atlantic troughs maintain an unsettled feel to the weather next week with further rain and showers at times in possible strong winds too.
NAVGEM ends it's run this morning with Low pressure out to the NW and a milder SW flow bringing rain at times in blustery winds across the UK again next week after a rather cold and showery weekend.
ECM still shows slow improvements from the South next week but we may well have to be patient as Low pressure remains resilient to a pressure rise from the South with rain at times still likely as far out as the middle of next week.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts today show very similar conditions expected in 9 and 10 days time that was shown in previous days output. Low pressure is biased towards being to the North of the UK with a WSW flow over the UK with bands of rain and showers expected in such conditions. the bias of worst rains should shift more towards the NW rather than SW as the Jet by then has shifted somewhat further North.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The GFS Jet Stream Summary shows the flow remaining in situ for the next week or so pumping across the Atlantic and France. The push Northward is still shown next week but it is weaker than was shown yesterday with the main thinking being for it to cross the UK next week in a WW to ENE direction.
In Summary this morning there remains a lot of unsettled weather to get through before there is any chance of improvements. Through this week several bouts of wind and rain will cross the UK, heavy and disruptive at times and giving some snowfall in places too, chiefly in the North. there is still a muted approach to somewhat better conditions next week, at least at times as pressure attempts to rise from the South. However, if anything such improvements shown are less pronounced this morning as it appears the Atlantic is likely to remain quite strong, continuing to throw spells of rain East across the UK on occasion.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset