Hi everyone. Will the improvements of this morning be built upon tonight? Here is my take on that very question as I review the latest outputs of the NWP based on their midday outputs for today Sunday February 9th 2014.
All models show the weekend Low pressure now filling to the North while another tracks East to the South with the UK falling under an area of slack pressure for the next 36 hours. Some rain or wintry showers will still be scattered about, particularly near Western coasts and with some light rain for a time in the SE tomorrow morning. On Tuesday an active front moves East with strong winds ahead of it together with another spell of heavy rain and snow over the hills and in the North. By Wednesday the UK lies under a cold and showery Westerly flow with wintry showers giving some snowfall over hills, again chiefly in the North. Then overnight Wednesday into Thursday another active weather feature moves across the UK with renewed rain and gales followed by showers once more later in the day.
GFS then ends the week with further Low pressure, gales and heavy rain before the weather improves somewhat late in the weekend though with some showers in the North as Low pressure moves further North than of late with Higher pressure to the South. Through the lower resolution part of the run tonight High pressure again features eventually settling over the UK with rather cold weather with frost and fog at night but dry for most.
The GFS Ensembles tonight offer two weeks of fairly average values though after the mid point of the run this is made up from a wide spread between members with some very cold options being shown including the control run. Rainfall remains stubbornly present over the period but not as excessive as of late.
UKMO shows next Saturday as a very showery and rather chilly day as Low pressure is positioned out in the North Sea with strong West veering NW winds through the day. A ridge of High pressure over the Atlantic on Saturday should give a drier interlude next Sunday.
GEM tonight shows no relief of note within it's output period with intense Low pressure with attendant severe gales and rain give way to further unsettled weather with rain and showers at times thereafter. rather cold weather with snow on the hills next weekend will probably give way to slightly milder weather as we enter Week 2.
NAVGEM also shows little signs of change next weekend with any rise of pressure limited or muted in the face of further troughs and rain at times to end the run early next week.
ECM tonight shows the unsettled period lessening as we move into next week as at long last something of a ridge moves up from the SW pushing the rain bearing systems on more of their usual route towards Iceland and affecting the NW most while the South and East see something of a much more meaningful respite.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show an improvement to those of late but not as good as i would like to see to guarantee drier weather over the UK. The charts both show a bias towards Low pressure to the NW and an unstable SW flow over the UK enabling futher rain bearing troughs to cross the UK from the SW at times.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows no change to the flow this week, maintained in it's current position South of the UK. Through Week 2 the flow buckles and becomes much more ill defined with time with no coherent pattern indicated.
In Summary tonight there is still an element of improvement still shown from some output, more notably from GFS and ECM. We must remember though we are talking about periods of time outside of the reliable time period still and it won't be until we are nearing midweek that we need the above improvements to still be shown, by which time they can be taken more seriously. In the mean time there is another week or so of misery and more heavy rain and indeed snow for some to get through which is far from welcome before 'maybe' we can look forward to something better.
Martin G Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset