Good evening folks. Here is how I see the noon runs from today's outputs from the big 5 for today Sunday August 11th 2013.
The General Situation. There is little change on the coming week's output from this morning with the NW flow with showers in the North continuing for another couple of days before a ridge crossing from the West backs winds off towards the SW with a warm front hard on it's heels bringing a little rain along with warmer and more humid air around midweek. The South and East then see 24-48hrs of fine and warm weather with high humidity and sunny spells, especially in the SE in a gentle SW wind. The North would more likely stay more cloudy and cooler with occasional rain. On Friday a cold front crosses East and brings clearer, fresher and cooler air across all parts by the end of the day. Saturday then sees a more vigorous Atlantic Low develop up to the NW with increasing SW winds and rain spilling East across all areas at some point through the day followed by a fresh and breezy Sunday with sunshine and showers especially in the North and West following the cold front East across the UK.
GFS then moves into Week 2 with High pressure building from the SW which then in one shape or another dominates the weather over the UK for the rest of the run. It would become dry for all away from the far NW with increasing amounts of sunshine day by day. Temperatures would be on the rise too , becoming very warm late in the run with a SW to NE axis of High pressure across Britain giving rise to the potential for a sustained period of fine and settled weather again, especially towards the South.
The GFS Ensembles continue to show a trend towards rising temperatures through the second half of the run as High pressure looks like taking a more dominant role in the UK later in the output. Rainfall amounts are shown to be minimal in the South and decreasing in quantity in the North too later.
The Jet Stream continues to be shown blowing across the Atlantic and the UK in the next week before it trends more towards the North as High pressure continues to be projected closer to the UK.
UKMO tonight at the close of it's run has a deep Low to the South of Iceland at noon next Saturday with a fresh and blustery SW flow over the UK. Rain would most likely be clearing the East with squally showers following with hail and thunder possible. The South and West Coasts would probably miss most of the showers again during the daytime with inland convergence zones likely to be affected the most.
GEM tonight too has a deep Low scooting East to the North of Scotland with a spell of wind and rain followed by showers for all before pressure builds strongly from the SW at the start of the new week with fine and settled weather gradually developing NE across the UK with sunny spells and much lighter winds and warmer temperatures.
NAVGEM shows a strong Westerly flow across the UK next weekend as the transit East of a Low to the North of the UK takes place. There would be sunshine and showers with a slow moderation of wind and showers to start the new week.
ECM tonight shows some appreciable rain and showers next weekend for many before a rise in pressure from the SW early in the new week settles the UK into a spell of warmer and sunnier weather, first in the SW then on to other Southern areas by midweek.
In Summary tonight we have some uniformity between the models on the most likely course of events for the next few weeks. After this weeks changeable weather well documented already the weekend looks likely to become unsettled and windy for a time with rain and showers for all as a deep Low moves East across the North of Scotland. Following behind there is good support for a strong build of High pressure from the SW taking control of the weather with a more than reasonable chance of fine, settled and warm weather returning to many areas by the middle of next week. ECM does not develop the High as much as I would of liked tonight but the idea is still there and as shown would be OK for the South.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset